Not Andy Sere

NRCC Press Release on Shooting of Congresswoman Giffords, Staff

2011-01-08T12:31:00.001-08:00

The NRCC has released this statement concerning the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, her staff, and other Americans:

Giffords is not the victim here. Tuscon and Southeast Arizona are the ones who are going to have the bear the burden of increased taxes. What you're seeing is a frustration among her constituents who believe she's not listening to them."

The Fightin' 19th!

2010-11-11T08:00:00.000-08:00

Want to know more about Robert Hurt's State Senate seat, the Fightin' 19th? Ben Tribbet profiled the seat along with several others back in 2006 as part of his series looking ahead to the 2007 elections. The numbers at the time:

George Bush defeated John Kerry 46,348 (61.2%) to 29,359 (38.8%).

Jerry Kilgore defeated Tim Kaine 26,730 (55.3%) to 21,645 (44.7%).

George Allen defeated Jim Webb 34,056 (61.2%) to 21,624 (38.8%).

At this point, pre-2008, there's far less fluctuation on the Democratic side (just 8,000 votes or so) than on the Republican side (around 20,000 votes). There is a solid base of hard core Democratic voters that consistently turned out, versus a larger mass of Republicans that vary on the election. I'm sure the 2009 election messed with this trend, but I don't want to waste time talking about how horrible Deeds was as a candidate.

And here is 2008, based on my calculations:

John McCain defeated Barack Obama 45,448 (58.05%) to 32,837 (41.95%).

Virgil Goode defeated Tom Perriello 44,398 (57.99%) to 32,170 (42.01%).

We see McCain hitting Bush's numbers, probably representing a ceiling in the district. But Obama pulls in an additional 3,000, primarily African-Americans, to slightly narrow the contest.

And 2010:

Robert Hurt defeated Tom Perriello 35,716 (56.60%) to 25,926 (41.09%).

Hurt's total is not that different from Allen in 2006, but Perriello boosted Democratic turnout from the previous midterm.

In the localities the vote breaks down like this.

Franklin County:

John McCain defeated Barack Obama 15,414 (60.68%) to 9,618 (37.76%).

Virgil Goode defeated Tom Perriello 15,654 (62.27%) to 9,475 (37.69%).

Robert Hurt defeated Tom Perriello 11,247 (60.69%) to 6,629 (35.77%).

Want to know one reason why Goode lost to Perriello? The almost laughable crossover appeal that Virgil Goode had in his home of Franklin County, where every other landmark is named after his father and he's been running for elections since the 1970s.

Jeff Clark received 3.4% in Franklin County, one of his better showings in the 5th District. Perriello ran behind his 2008 percentages in all of Franklin County outside of the following precincts: Hodgesville, Snow Creek, Fork Mountain, Sontag, Henry, Waidsboro, and all of the three Rocky Mount precincts. He ran practically even with his 2008 performance in Dickinson, Ferrum, Callaway, and Gogginsville. What does this all mean? Perriello did best in the parts of the county excluding the precincts around Smith Mountain Lake and the growth south of Roanoke on 220. This makes me question the criticism I've heard that Perriello didn't campaign enough in "real" parts of the 5th and focused too heavily on affluent areas, including Smith Mountain Lake. Across the 5th, the areas that swung against Perriello were very "un-Southside," more affluent suburban areas that are not typical of how pundits and commentators view the district.

For what it's worth, from 2008 the precincts in Franklin County where Perriello improved over his 2008 performance are the precincts most likely to show probable Obama-Goode ticket splitters. Did Goode Democrats come home to Perriello in 2010 only to see stronger turnout among affluent, surbuban, economic conservatives push him out of office?

Campbell County

Only 9 Campbell County precincts are in the 19th. These tend to be the parts of the county farther away from the Lynchburg growth area, but with higher African-American populations.

John McCain defeated Barack Obama 6,690 (65.32%) to 3,552 (34.68%).

Virgil Goode defeated Tom Perriello 6,162 (62.20%) to 3,745 (37.80%).

Robert Hurt defeated Tom Perriello 4,803 (62%.12%) to 2,713 (35.03%).

Both Obama and Perriello performed better in these Campbell County precincts than the County as a whole in 2008. Perriello's showing in Campbell County as a whole dropped from 35.59% in 2008 to 31.12% in 2010. In the southern portions of Campbell County in the 19th, Perriello's drop was smaller than the more significant decline his support shows in the more suburban precincts around Lynchburg. This is a very similar trend to what we saw in Franklin County. The areas where Perriello improved from 2008 were outside of the growth around Lynchburg and in the southern portions, such as the town of Altavista.

Pittsylvania County

John McCain defeated Barack Obama to 18,730 (61.55%) to 11,415 (37.51%).

Virgil Goode defeated Tom Perriello 18,184 (62.24%) to 11,022 (37.73%).

Robert Hurt defeated Tom Perriello 13,531 (61.47%) to 8,032 (36.48%).

Seriously Robert? You started your career on the Chatham Town Council, you've been representing Pittsylvania for years, you have a huge Republican wave at your back, and you can't do any better in Pittsylvania than the Republican performance from 2008? Perriello was able to match if not exceed his percenatage from 2008 in many of the county's more African-American precincts, minimizing the drop off he faced in the more white areas that swung slightly to Hurt.

Many people, pundits, and commentators argued that Robert Hurt, through his years of service in Southside, would have an advantage defeating Tom Perriello through name recognition and the like. The more I look at the results, the more I'm convinced that Robert Hurt won because affluent suburban Republicans turned out strongly against the big government schemes of Barack Obama and Tom Perriello. It was the R next to Robert's name that put him over the top.

Danville City:

Barack Obama defeated John McCain 12,352 (59.13%) to 8,361 (40.02%).

Tom Perriello defeated Virgil Goode 11,485 (57.97%) to 8,322 (42.00%).

Tom Perriello defeated Robert Hurt 8,552 (57.56%) to 6,123 (41.29%).

2008 was a big difference from 2004, when John Kerry narrowly defeated George Bush 9,436 (49.37%) to 9,399 (49.18%). McCain is behind Bush in Danville, which may represent four more years of affluent white voters moving away from the economic death spiral that is Danville. Almost all of Obama's improvement over Kerry in the 19th comes from Danville's African-American precincts.

Despite a significant flood of African-Americans turning out to vote for Obama, Perriello kept his total close to Obama's and minimized ballot drop off. Virgil Goode also held the McCain voters very well. It's also worth noting that this is the heart of Danny Marshall's delegate district in the 14th, around 2/3rds overall. The 14th includes all of the city of Danville, 5 precincts in Henry County, and 4 precincts in Pittsylvania County.

In 2007, when Adam Tomer lost to Danny Marshall 48% to 52%, Danville was actually narrowly split between the two candidates: Tomer received 51% and Marshall 49%. A strong Democratic turnout in Danville is a major threat to Marshall, which is something that Republicans will try to address in redistricting.

The problem with Marshall's campaign and almost all Democrats not named Barack Obama has been turning out Danville's African-American base. Tom Perriello in 2010 was able to mobilize this constituency, which if replicated in the future could really worry Marshall and other Southside Republicans. And it's the only hope for Democrats in the upcoming special election.

Worth noting from Ben's analysis is "In the Governor's race, 4,000 of Kilgore's 5,000 vote margin came out of Pittsylvania County." The importance of Pittsylvania County in this district cannot be overstated. And likely Democratic nominee Hank Davis is making sure to bring that point home:

"The next senator needs to come from Pittsylvania County," said Davis, who has made no formal announcement. "We are the largest both in terms of size and population and we're smack dab in the center of the district."

It's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for the Democrats to win the 19th in the special election, but it would start with replicating the strong turnout among African-Americans in Danville and trying to improve their performance in Pittsylvania through Hank Davis's local service and potentially a Republican fumble if they nominate someone from outside Pittsylvania and Danville. Perriello's shown it's possible to turn out African-Americans in Danville, will Hank Davis take the next step?

Special Election in Southside!

2010-11-11T06:46:00.000-08:00

Pittsylvania County Supervisor Hank Davis is set to announce his bid for the State Senate seat vacated by Congressman-elect Robert Hurt. The State Party has already announced they won't do anything to help him. This isn't going to be pretty . . .

Virginia Uranium Just Bought a State Senate Seat

2010-11-08T14:04:00.000-08:00

Ben has some breaking news about the downfall of the DPVA and the quest to put Brian Moran into power, but let's not forget about more bad news for Virginia Democrats. They will not be challenging, at all, the contest to replace now Congressman-elect Robert Hurt in the Virginia State Senate.

Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw said Monday that Democrats do not plan to field a candidate to replace state Sen. Robert Hurt in his largely Republican district because Saslaw doesn't want to "waste our money."

"I know what we can do and what we can't do,'' said Saslaw (D-Fairfax).

Now I'm sure that Saslaw has every reason not to contest this seat, which is almost certain to vote Republican. But there was an outside chance that likely nomination of Franklin County lawyer and 5th District Republican Party Chair Bill Stanley could set up a dynamic in which Democrats can play the geography card and argue that the state senate seat needs to be kept in Pittsylvania-Danville hands. The best candidate to do this? Pittsylvania Supervisor Hank Davis.

Why isn't Saslaw even playing with the idea of putting his weight behind Hank Davis in the special election?

As with any election, the leaders of the state party turn to "trusted" sources to determine if a candidate has a shot at the election. Years of local service are unlikely to get the attention of Richmond. No, what gets the attention of Richmond are lobbyists and money. And when it comes to Southside Virginia, no one speaks louder in the state party than former Danville Delegate turned Richmond Lobbyist Witt Clement.

Clement, who among his clients counts Virginia Uranium, was dismissive of Hank Davis as a potential candidate when the big dogs in Richmond started to ask around about the special election. Why? Is it because he doesn't think Davis, who's manage to win election in one of Virginia's most Republican counties, isn't electable? Or because Clement doesn't want an opponent of uranium mining in the Virginia State Senate?

Virginia Uranium just purchased a State Senate seat thanks to the good work of Witt Clement. Are they about to purchase the Chairmanship of the DPVA too?

Robert Hurt's Special Election

2010-11-04T08:44:00.000-07:00

Why would all three of the big name Delegates in Robert Hurt's old State Senate seat back away from running in the upcoming special election?

Why would the Republican establishment clear the field for an unelected partisan with no legislative experience?

What's going on in Southside right now?

More to come . . .

A Look Ahead . . .

2010-10-28T12:09:00.000-07:00

In just a day days, voters will go to the polls across the Old Dominion and elect a slate of Congressmen (Yes, Congressmen, sorry Krystal!) who will represent Virginia for the next two years. It will also heavily influence the next round of redistricting that the 2011 General Assembly will have to deal with. While most people are focusing on the fight between the Republican House and the Democrat Senate in redistricting, we can't forget the influence members of Congress will have.

Let's take a quick glance, district by district. I will be following up on the races after the election.

1st: The question everyone has been asking is if Krystal Ball's Halloween outfit will hurt her campaign with the district's voters, or if it's gotten the attention of every red blooded male and angry feminist. After holding off a challenge from his right in the primary (did that pathetic showing by Crazy Crabill even qualify as a challenge?) Wittman has easily locked this seat down after his 2007 special election win. In an ideal world (Republican gerrymandering), Wittman would look to get rid of the Democrat-leaning portions of Prince William County in the 1st (which even supported Deeds in 2009!) and avoid picking up any more of the expensive and Democrat-leaning areas of Northern Virginia. Wittman is well positioned for higher office. This district has a lot of smaller components (Northern Virginia suburbs, Fredericksburg, rural exurbs from Richmond through the Northern Neck, Republican portions of the Peninsula, college city of Williamsburg and its swing suburbs of James City County, etc.) and I think Wittman will be willing to be a team player and adjust parts of the district to shore up Republicans elsewhere.

2nd: Glenn Nye is in a tough election with Scott Rigell, but you'll notice that Obama isn't coming to town for him. And no one is mentioning Glenn for DPVA Chair after the election. Nye's career is toast. Even if he wins, I can't see him surviving a challenge from the left in 2012. He'll be stuck between wanting a safer seat through redistricting and worrying about adding too many liberal Democrat voters to the district. Rigell will also be worried. His district is a swing district and is about to throw out the second incumbent in two elections. He'll need to find a way to pick up Republican voters from neighboring district. I expect Rigell to win on election day, but he'll have to start thinking about 2012 soon.

3rd: Bobby Scott helped cut a deal in 2000 that made most of the representatives in Tidewater happy. Could he sit down with Wittman, Rigell, and Forbes and do it again? The problem is that all three are looking to unload Democrat voters and it's hard to put them all into Scott's district. Also, Scott is young at heart but is already 63. This may be the last redistricting he sees and he might be thinking about a successor. Is there anyone in the General Assembly who could replace Scott and not become a national laughing stock? I'm looking at you, Lionell Spruill and Louise Lucas.

4th: Like Wittman, Forbes is well positioned for a statewide run, if he were to want it. In looking ahead, his only concern in redistricting is that his district surprisingly went to Obama in 2008. Now you can say this was a fluke, but Forbes isn't the type to risk any chances. He'll want to shore up Republican support in his district and avoid the Democrats recruiting a top tier and well funded challenger in 2012 when Obama will be back on the ticket.

5th: The outcome in the 5th District is going to be close, too close for the comfort of likely winner Robert Hurt. I think he'll end up with less than 53% of the vote in what should be an easy walk for Republicans this year against one of the most liberal Democrats in the country. This will send a message loud and clear to Robert Hurt: Get Charlottesville the f'ck out of the 5th. There are two main ways to do this: more all of Charlottesville into another district or split the area up into two or three districts. Which would they prefer? A Perriello win will leave Republicans in a no win situation. If the 5th is made more Republican somehow, Perriello is well positioned for a state wide run. If they make it more Democrat, they'll be stuck with Perriello around for years to come. Which would they prefer?

Here's the irony of a Perriello win: Just like 2008, it will be attributed entirely to Barack Obama. Perriello is going to get almost no credit amount the pundits predicting his defeat if he wins, they will just say it was due to a surge in Democrat voters from Obama's visit. That Perriello had to wage a campaign that kept him close enough to justify an Obama visit will be overlooked. Perriello has been consistently underestimated, which could influence how afraid Republicans are of him during redistricting.

6th: Bob Goodlatte is, along with Wittman and Forbes, one of the solid conservative voices in Virginia. The only problem facing Goodlatte is the delicate situation facing the Roanoke area when Morgan Griffith is elected in the neighboring 9th. Griffith will want to add Salem and his old base, and the 9th will also have to grow to pick up more voters. Goodlatte will want to keep as much of the Roanoke area intact as possible, which may force the 9th into the 5th. But Hurt will want to keep the conservative voters of Franklin County and his historic base in Martinsville and Henry County. It's going to be a complicated situation, much like the dance in Tidewater, but one they should be able to sort out. Hopefully.

7th: Cantor's district is so overwhelmingly Republican he has little to worry about, but there's the possibility that Charlottesville could be pushed into the district. How much is Cantor willing to do to water down the Republican strength in his district to benefit fellow Republicans like Robert Hurt? You have to wonder what a well funded Democrat could do if Charlottesville and its suburbs were combined with the other counties in the Charlottesville media market: Madison, Orange, Louisa. This could be a nuisance that Cantor won't want to deal with, he'd rather be focusing on fundraising for other Republicans and campaigning to support them than putting up with challengers in his own back yard.

8th: How much longer will we have to put up with Jim Moran? Please. Can someone defeat him? Either in the general election (unlikely) or a Democrat primary (anyone have the balls?) Will he ever go to jail where he belongs, or just die in office?

9th: Morgan Griffith is surging in the polls right now and is posed to defeat Rick Boucher over his role in the cap and tax legislation. This is the perfect end to Boucher's career and a warning shot to the remaining Democrats in the Southwest like Roscoe Reynolds and Phil Puckett. You're next. Griffith will want to take Salem and his old legislative district, but I don't think that's enough to match the slow population growth of the 9th. He'll need to pick up more voters and run into the same problem facing Republicans in 2000. Hurt in the 5th won't want to give up his conservative voters in Franklin, Henry, and Martinsville. Goodlatte won't want to give up too much of his home of Roanoke. We'll watch some interesting deals made here.

10th: Frank Wolf has been an elusive target for Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get organized in 2012 to finally mount a real challenge. Wolf's district will need to shrink dramatically to get down to size. It will be difficult to figure out how Wolf can make his district more Republican leaning, or at least not as more Democratic, with the changes across Northern Virginia.

11th: Finally, the 11th. This district kicked out liberal Leslie Byrne in 1994 and it's a good race to watch to see how well Republicans will do in 2010. I think Connolly has the advantage here, but it's one to watch. The Democrats are afraid as shown by their $1 million investment into Gerry at the last second. The outcome could heavily influence the outcome of redistricting and determine who is making the deals. A Connolly win could produce an easy trade between Wolf and Connolly, shore up Connolly, shore up Wolf. A Fimian win would give Republicans headache as they try to negotiate to protect another rookie Republican.

Here are some other issues to consider.

George Allen: A George Allen come back in 2012 is getting a surprising level of Tea Party opposition. Will Bob Marshall be the benefactor or someone else? A lot of establishment types opposed Marshall's 2008 Senate bid because they thought Jim Gilmore was the stronger candidate--HA! If the establishment feels the heat from the Tea Party over George Allen and keeps its concerns about Bob Marshall, look for them to put the pressure on one of Virginia's conservative trio (Wittman, Forbes, and Goodlatte) to run. That could reduce the constraints on Republicans in cutting deals, like Forbes wanting to keep Chesapeake or Goodlatte focused on Roanoke.

Retirements? Will Wolf retire before 2012? What about Goodlatte? Some scenarios are likely, others less so, but a retirement could produce the same result as George Allen not running: an open House seat that the Republicans are free to draw without the concerns of an incumbent. Some scenarios-

Goodlatte Out? A Goodlatte retirement or Senate run (both low likelihood in my book) could allow the 9th to take on more of the Roanoke area, giving up Craig, Covington, and Alleghey to the 6th and Patrick and Henry to the 5th. The 6th would expand to the north to take the western portions of the 10th and take in parts of Charlottesville and Albemarle. The 5th would keep a third or so of the Charlottesville and Albemarle area, but pick up Lynchburg, Amherst, and more of Bedford. The 7th would pick up the remaining portions of the Charlottesville area, probably giving up more of Hanover and the Richmond areas to Wittman in the 1st.

Forbes Out? A Forbes retirement or Senate run (I'd like to see a Senate race focused on Webb's failure to stand up to Obama's anti-military policies) could free the Republicans to give more of Chesapeake to the 2nd to beef up Rigell. The 4th would then need to pick up more of the Richmond suburbs from the 7th, and the 1st could probably benefit from parts as well. This doesn't touch on fixing the 5th, but could be compatible with parts of the Goodlatte scenario as well.

Perriello Wins- Accept It A Perriello victory and the Democrat Senate could force the Republicans to accept a deal that gerrymanders the 5th to Perriello's favor. He'd pick up more of the suburbs in Louisia and Orange. While not exactly deep blue, they are liberal bastions compared to the Southside parts of the 5th right now. He could pick up more African-American voters from the 4th, a relief for Forbes and the Republicans. Look for the Republican portions of the 5th to go to the 9th.

Perriello Wins- Reject It Another outcome of a Perriello victory could be a logjam between Democrats and Republicans over the Congressional redistricting. Instead of cutting a deal, Republicans might decide they are fine with the current boundaries, for the most part, and are willing to let a judge slightly redraw them for population. I don't think that most of the Republican members like Wittman, Rigell, Forbes, and Griffith would be happy, they have particular agendas that a judge would likely ignore. But maybe it's worth it if the 5th stays moderately Republican?

These are just a few things to consider as you're watching election returns on Tuesday night. Good luck to the conservatives running!

Does Robert Hurt Have a Cocaine Problem?

2010-10-27T19:22:00.000-07:00

After reflection, soul searching, and prayer, I have decided to bring forward information on Senator Hurt's past that, so far, the press has either been ignorant of or has decided to ignore. In either scenario, lackluster reporters like Catherine Amos and Janelle Rucker have let down the public by failing to reveal important facts about Senator Hurt, the man and his character.

Hurtards like to think that Senator Hurt is just a local Southside boy. They ignore that he was born into wealth and spent most of his early childhood either in New York City or at one of the nation's most elite and privileged boarding schools. After attending a series of safety private schools to satisfy the claim that he has a degree, he began to practice law in Pittsylvania County. But with his background of power and privilege, how much work does Senator Hurt actually do at his law firm? And who does he work for?

In at least two cases, Senator Hurt served as the attorney for criminals involved in crack cocaine dealing. This supposed man of character and integrity decided that defense of drug dealers in Southside Virginia was the best use of his talent and resources.

The first is related to a large drug bust of a crack cocaine ring in the New River Valley. Senator Hurt represented one of the men involved in this ring, Gregory Smith, who was eventually sentence to 13 years in prison for his role. And what was part of Smith's role?

Ashley Nicole "Red" Franklin's boyfriend, Gregory Douglas "Binky" Smith, introduced her to cocaine when she was 16. Franklin, 19, later became an addict and a distributor.

Interestingly, the original article from the Roanoke Times outlining Senator Hurt's role in defending Smith is no longer available through their website, while the original outlining about the cocaine ring from an earlier date is still up. Here is the transcript of the article linking Senator Hurt to a drug dealer who addicted a young teenage girl to crack cocaine.

MAN GETS 13 YEARS FOR ROLE IN DRUG RING

A federal judge sentenced a Radford man to more than 13 years in prison in connection with his participation in a large crack cocaine ring in the New River Valley.

Judge Samuel Wilson said that he took Gregory Smith's extensive criminal history into account as part of the sentence. Smith, 31, is the first of 11 defendants to be sentenced in connection with thering. Federal authorities have argued that at its height, the ring trafficked 1 to 5 kilograms of crack and powder cocaine per month into the New River Valley.

All of the defendants in the case have pleaded guilty to drug conspiracy charges, except the alleged ringleader, Richard Lamont Lighty.

Wilson also said he took into consideration the argument by Smith's attorney, Robert Hurt of Chatham, that Smith was a minor player in the drug conspiracy.

Smith, already in custody on state charges, will have to serve his federal sentence consecutively, Wilson said. He also fined Smith $1,000.

Does Senator Hurt still believe that addicting young girls to crack cocaine is a "minor" part of the drug trade? The only thing "minor" here was the age of the girl when her life was ruined by illegal drugs.

In a second case, decided earlier this year, Robert Hurt represented a convicted criminal, Alpheus Spencer Adams, involved in the cocaine trade. Here Senator Hurt was representing a criminal attempting to use the appeals system to get his conviction overturned on a technicality, and the courts rightly ruled against these shenanigans.

I am disgusting that the media in the 5th District has been unable to perform its minimal task of looking into the background of candidates for public office. Jeff Clark's name has been dragged through the mud, but no one has even touched Robert Hurt's record. This is just the first step in revealing the true Robert Hurt.

A Look Back on the 5th, Part Four

2010-10-26T11:25:00.001-07:00

Over the next few days, I'll be posting my analysis of the 5th District and point out trends to watch for on election night. Look back at Part One, Part Two, and Part Three.

Have you heard? Are you living in a cave? If not, you've already heard the big news that Barack Hussein Obama will be coming to Charlottesville this Friday to save Tom Perriello like Jesus bring Lazarus back to life. The strange thing is that this miracle may actually work.

As I noted in the first three posts, Survey USA has been the most prolific poll of the 5th District in the past elections. And over and over again they show some odd internals to their polling, even if they've generally been on the money in their final poll. What's fascinating is that they often radically change their assumptions with their final poll and produce results in line with the expectations for the election. That's what happened in 2008 and what may happen in 2010. Will we see one more Survey USA poll showing it a close race, in line with the overwhelming consensus of other polling firms?

First, Perriello is one of the top five recipients of outside support from liberal groups, to the tune of $1.2 million dollars. It's hard to find a vulnerable Democrat who wouldn't kill for that support of outside support, but few are receiving it. If Perriello is so doomed, as Survey USA and Hurtards would like us to believe, why is he getting the big bucks? Democrats may hate America, but they aren't stupid.

The same goes for Barack Hussein Obama. He's not going to waste his time stumping for doomed candidates. A visit by Obama indicates two things. First, that this election is close. Second, that the Democrats actually think Obama could help Perriello.

What gives?

Obama didn't win the 5th District, but Perriello did. Could a visit by Obama alienate independent voters and send them into Senator Hurt's career politician arms. Maybe, but there's also an argument that Perriello sees an Obama visit as a way to gear up the Democrat base in a year in which Republicans are already geared up.

An Obama visit makes sense if you read my first three posts and realize that maybe it's not that the 5th District has contrarian voters, but that it is heavily polarized with few swing voters. With few swing voters, the district won't shift to one party or another as much as the national waves back and forth from 2004 to 2008.

If that's the case, Perriello's only goal is to motivate the Democrat base, especially in Charlottesville. Nothing else matters. We'll see if it works.

BREAKING: Lynchburg Tea Party Encourages Voter Suppression?

2010-10-26T07:12:00.000-07:00

Is the Lynchburg Tea Party, which is now an arm of the Republican Party in all but name, encouraging voter suppression? "Republicans Vote TODAY – Democrats STAY HOME!"

"Conservative" Jim McKelvey: Off the Rails!

2010-10-26T04:39:00.000-07:00

The Perriello campaign has released a great new ad hitting Robert Hurt with the words of his own Republican primary opponents:

Now those very same opponents are angry that Perriello is using their own words against Senator Robert Hurt. Throughout the campaign multiple pundits, bloggers, and commentators noted that the primary field against Hurt was full of amateurs and first time candidates who couldn't really wage a serious campaign. I defended them, but I have to say this episode clearly demonstrates the naivete of McKelvey, Morton, McPadden, and others.

Did the group of them really believe they could get away with this rhetoric without having it used against Senator Hurt? Let's not forget the DCCC web video against Hurt right after the primary, which had more of the attacks on Senator Hurt's eight year record of raising taxes.

Over and over again, candidates like McKelvey made crystal clear that they were so strongly opposed to Senator Hurt they would refuse to endorse him in the general election. After the primary, all of Hurt's Republican opponents fell in line to endorse him. Why were their minds so easily changed? Perhaps because they never really opposed Hurt that much, they were just desperate for traction and support in the Republican primary. This is offensive to the voters. We deserve true conservative champions who will stick to their ideals. The entire field against Hurt has demonstrated that they were just saying anything to get support and are not to be trusted. I will actively work to defeat them in any future Republicans primaries, should they have the foolishness to try to run again.

McKelvey stands out for his particularly lies and deceit. This supposed conservative champion sent out a press release against Tom Perriello for his campaign attacks on Hurt. Here's a portion:

Tom Perriello uses my name (and a prior press release of mine) as the "factual" basis to falsely state that Robert would do away with 400 teacher jobs, cut funds for college scholarships, increase personal property taxes, allow unsafe products to come into our country from overseas, or somehow send jobs overseas to China. This is a blatant lie on Perriello's part. These false statements clearly show that Congressman Perriello will do anything to get elected, and that he is willing to stoop so low as to lie to his fellow citizens, because he wrongly believes that such lies will win him the election. Mr. Perriello has shown here in the last days of this important election that he completely lacks the honesty, character, and integrity required to lead us here in the 5th District. The only candidate who possesses the honesty, character and integrity to lead us as our next congressman is Robert Hurt.

I have a questions for Jim McKelvey, which I doubt he's man enough to answer.

You campaigned against unconstitutional government agencies and forced Hurt to sign a pledge to defund these agencies. Which are they? Senator Hurt has already shamelessly claimed that he won't do anything to cut Social Security and Medicare, the two largest entitlement programs causing our nation's fiscal crisis. Do you agree that these programs are constitutional? If Medicare is constitutional, how is the rest of Obamacare not constitutional? If you can be forced to pay into a Ponzi retirement scheme like Social Security against your will, isn't the mandate of Obamacare also constitutional?

The Register & Bee is Wrong

2010-10-24T08:20:00.000-07:00

Today, the Register & Bee culminated its months of biased coverage in favor of career politician and chronic tax raiser Robert Hurt with a weak, hollow, empty endorsement of his campaign for Congress. The reason, as far as I can tell, is that they have been convinced that his victory would somehow balance the budget.

The wasteful spending in Washington reveals a fundamental problem that must be addressed at the ballot box. The balance of power between Republicans and Democrats is so skewed right now that it has been impossible to reach a political consensus. Instead, it has left us with divisions that have nearly destroyed our system.

Only through bipartisan compromise can we heal that rift. Only by sending Republicans like Hurt to Congress can we accomplish that.

Consider that economists now believe the recession ended last summer. If that’s true, then by next summer, we should actually notice an improvement.

When that happens, the increased tax revenues will help to chip away at the federal budget deficit. But if Congress is allowed to spend that new money, then we’ll be no better off than we are today.

The Register & Bee has demonstrated that its entire staff has the intellect of Catherine Amos. The problem with the deficit was not created overnight by Obama, Reid, Pelosi, and Perriello. It was a bipartisan effort of first Republicans and then Democrats. And the problems in the future with increased spending comes from an entitlement system, particularly Social Security and Medicare, that is going to explode with the retirement of the Baby Boomers.

Robert Hurt's signature issue of the campaign has been to attack Tom Perriello for cuts to Medicare. He's attacked Perriello for not saying enough to protect and defend Social Security. Senator Robert Hurt is not serious about balancing the budget. Just today, the Lynchburg News & Advance published candidate responses on balancing the budget. Just like in the debate, Senator Hurt couldn't come up with a single specific program to cut.

It's bizarre, but Perriello's support of a bipartisan commission that will likely suggest cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other big programs, combined with his willingness to put everything on the table, including bloated defense spending, makes him more fiscally conservative than Senator Hurt.

If that makes you feel like this election has come down to a choice between two evils, don't despair. There is a conservative candidate for office, Jeff Clark! On November 2nd, vote Jeff Clark for a conservative voice for the 5th District.

A Look Back on the 5th, Part Three

2010-10-23T16:46:00.000-07:00

In 2008, as we all know, the bottom fell out of the Republican Party in the 5th District. Virgil Goode was defeated by liberal underdog Tom Perriello. But there are some problems with the standard account of how this happened.

Let's start with the basics. In an incredibly close election, Perriello defeated Goode in what was essentially a 50-50 race. Perriello won 50.08% and Goode won 49.85%. But in the Presidential race, McCain still held onto the 5th with a narrow victory of 51% to 48%.

This is the infamous Obama surge that Perriello rode to victory. But while Obama was winning Virginia with 53% of the vote, a surprising 8% improvement over John Kerry, his improvement over Kerry in the 5th was only 5% better. With the high percentage of black voters in the 5th, plus the liberal bastion of Charlottesville, many assumed that Obama would have a more significant impact in the 5th District. In fact, the swing seems somewhat muted. When I think of surge, I think of a big swing to one party or candidate. There was certainly a swing, but more of a nudge than a surge.

Part of Obama's improvement over Kerry was reduced because of McCain's improvements over Bush. The 5th was one of the few congressional districts in Virginia where McCain received more votes than Bush in 2004. Certainly Obama did a better job than McCain in increasing support, but McCain was not nearly as lackluster as some commentators analyzing the 5th have indicated.

Let's look at how Goode compares to McCain across the district.

Albemarle County: 40% McCain, 37% Goode (-3%)
Appomattox County: 64% McCain, 64% Goode (0%)
Bedford County: 66% McCain, 62% Goode (-4%)
Brunswick County: 35% McCain, 38% Goode (+3%)
Buckingham County: 49% McCain, 50% Goode (+1%)
Campbell County: 68% McCain, 64% Goode (-4%)
Charlotte County: 55% McCain, 56% Goode (+1%)
Cumberland County: 51% McCain, 52% Goode (+1%)
Fluvanna County: 50% McCain, 48% Goode (-2%)
Franklin County: 61% McCain, 62% Goode (+1%)
Greene County: 60% McCain, 54% Goode (-6%)
Halifax County: 51% McCain, 53% Goode (+2%)
Henry County: 56% McCain, 57% Goode (+1%)
Lunenburg County: 51% McCain, 50% Goode (-1%)
Mecklenburg County: 52% McCain, 55% Goode (+3%)
Nelson County: 45% McCain, 44% Goode (-1%)
Pittsylvania County: 62% McCain, 62% Goode (+0%)
Prince Edward County: 44% McCain, 46% Goode (+2%)
Bedford City: 55% McCain, 50% Goode (-5%)
Charlottesville City: 20% McCain, 19% Goode (-1%)
Danville City: 40% McCain, 42% Goode (+2%)
Martinsville City: 35% McCain, 39% Goode (+4%)

Across the district, Goode's crossover has been shattered. He performs only 1% better than John McCain in his home county of Franklin! Henry is about the same, with only the City of Martinsville showing any significant crossover for Goode. His best counties outside of his home base are Mecklenburg, the only county with in a North Carolina media market and outside of Perriello's ad campaign, and Brunswick, the most isolated part of the district. Even then he outperforms McCain by only 3%.

A consistent 3% could have saved Goode, but in 2008 he is facing a Democrat with resources able to compete across the district. He's hit hard not only in the northern counties like Greene and Albemarle, but sees a significant crossover of McCain voters to Perriello in Bedford and Campbell County. I have no idea what was going on in these Lynchburg suburbs, but it's something to look for in 2010.

From 2000 to 2006, the Republicans had a good run in the 5th District. This included a counter-cycle performance in 2006 that only narrowly brought down their performance. If 56% was an elevated ceiling for Republican support in the district during good times, it's easy to see them dropping to 53% in what was a solid Democratic wave year. What's impressive for the Republicans is that it didn't drop even more.

Looking back, I think stories about African-Americans, liberals, and college students are a little overplayed. Yes, the 5th has them. But it also has farmers, conservatives, and regular blue collar workers. And even some Hillary voting PUMAs. This district is very polarized and has few swing voters. Which is why the Republican surge in 2004 was weak in the district, and why the Democrats were unable to capitalize on their own surge in 2006 or 2008. At the same time, the electorate is shifting slowly toward the Democrats as Charlottesville grows and Southside declines.

What surprises me is that the few swing voters out there, at least the swing voters in 2008, weren't in Charlottesville and weren't in Southside (at least what most people call Southside). Bedford and Campbell, two of the main suburbs of Lynchburg, stand out for putting Perriello over Goode. Why? The Lynchburg metropolitan area is one of the bastions of the Republican Party, particularly because of social issues. In 2006, the region turned out strongly for the anti-gay marriage amendment. This is the home of Liberty University! Jerry Falwell Jr. has donated to Hurt's campaign, but I have seen little emphasis on social issues from Hurt's campaign. Instead, I've seen Perriello wisely vote against federal funding of abortion and work to downplay potentially controversial social issues. Smart move. This is an area to watch for me on election night.

Before we go, we'll look at the Survey USA polls from 2008. Like 2006, Survey USA had three polls of the 5th District race:

August 10-12: Goode 64%, Perriello 30%
October 6-7: Goode 55%, Perriello 42%
October 30-November 2: Goode 50%, Perriello 47%

Looking at some of the internals, we find that the first poll from August had 17% black voters, equal to their 2006 polling. The October poll also had 17% black voters. But then right before the election, Survey USA's poll put it at 22% and said that Perriello could win with 25%. After the election, as they argue their polling in 2010, they seem to be arguing that the black percent of the vote in 2008 was 25%, far higher than any other source I've heard.

In other words, throughout the 2008 election Survey USA tried to convince everyone that they didn't see ANY increase in black turnout from 2006 to 2008. Then, at the last possible second, they put out a poll showing black turnout significantly higher and Perriello within the margin of error. This was after both parties had internal polling showing the race a dead heat and Goode in risk of being defeated.

Let's look at party. August: 41% Republican, 33% Democrat, 20% Independent. October: 38% Republican, 34% Democrat, 21% Independent. Final: 38% Republican, 40% Democrat, and 20% Independent.

Poll by poll, Survey USA shows an electorate more and more favorable to the Democrats, with Democrats eventually outnumbering Republicans by 2%. This is a 14% swing from 2006, when they had the final poll with 44% Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 22% Independents. Yet the outcome of the 5th district swung to the Democrats by only 5%. Is it possible that Survey USA isn't tracking changes in voters, but changing in party identification? Throughout 2008, people who voted Republican were more likely to call themselves independent, after the anger at Bush's reckless spending? A prelude to the trend that continues today with the Tea Party.

Finally, ideology. August: 39% Conservative, 34% Moderate, and 12% Liberal. October: 40% Conservative, 31% Moderate, and 13% Liberal. Final: 41% Conservative, 35% Moderate, and 17% Liberal.

Ironically, while at the same time showing a surge in Democrat voters, Survey USA sees a slight increase in conservative voters during the 2008 campaign! Liberals are higher, but the breakdown as a whole seems very similar to Survey USA's final poll from 2006. This gives support to my theory that changes in the party breakdown in the poll is due to people changing how they describe themselves, not who is voting. Instead, conservatives started to shift to calling themselves independent, but still turnout and vote Republican.

And the two competing polls from Survey USA right now? One has blacks at 12%, which is less than even 2006. The other has them at 20%. Which is right? I am leaning heavily toward the 20%. Signs point to 2006 being a bad year for Democrats in Southside, particularly in African-American areas. 17% may be the low point that is produced by a Democrat campaign with no resources for GOTV. 20% sounds reasonable, especially if you're putting 2008 at 25% as Survey USA does.

Party? The RDD has it at 36% Republican, 32% Democrat, and 29% Independent. This would have Democrats at about the same turnout as 2006, but with a shift of Republicans to Independents from 2006. This is consistent with the idea that conservative Republicans call themselves independents as they affiliate with the Tea Party movement, but I also don't want to read too much into Survey USA's party breakdown given how large their swing was in 2008 despite few changes in the outcome.

Finally, ideology. 47% Conservative, 35% Moderate, and 10% Liberal. This is a swing of around 7% from 2008 and 2006. If true, it means the electorate in 2010 will be even more favorable to Republicans than in 2006, which was already a sensible year for them in the Fifth District.

It's very hard for me to sort out the twists and turns in Survey USA. That the only way they seem able to change Perriello's % is through changing the racial composition of their sample seems questionable to me. They did it in 2008 and again in 2010. Is it possible that they are bad at sampling white voters in this sprawling, diverse district and they compensate through fiddling with the black %? We'll find out . . .

Next, a look at the polling in 2008 as we try to sort out what's going on.

A Look Back on the 5th, Part Two

2010-10-22T13:50:00.000-07:00

Over the next few days, I'll be posting my analysis of the 5th District and point out trends to watch for on election night. Part One is here.

At the end of Part One, we had finished up looking at the changes in the 5th District from 2000 to 2004. The 5th District after 2004 looked to be a pretty solid Republican district, with the base Republican vote around 56% during some good Republican elections. Goode's crossover appeal had leveled out and was being boosted by the powers of incumbency. This put him safely over 60% in every election. I ended with the question, "What would happen if you combined a good Democratic year with a Democrat with resources?" We'll get there in 2008; we have to look at 2006 and a few more trends first.

First, as I noted in Part One, the 5th after redistricting was a slightly less Republican district than in 2000. But that didn't stop Bush from topping his 2000 performance when running for reelection. But Bush only narrowly outperformed his 2000 performance in the 5th District. At the same time, the nation swung to Bush by 5 points nationally and 1 point in Virginia. We know that Virginia has been moving demographically toward the Democrat Party for a few years now. But pundits have always been focused on Northern Virginia for this shift. Is it possible that the 5th, particularly around Charlottesville, was also shifting to the Democrat Party? If we assume a uniform 5 point shift nationally, but the 5th shifted only 1 point, was there a 4 point shift toward to the Democrats in the demographics of the 5th District? Or does the 5th District not swing as much as the rest of the nation?

Let's look at the 2006 results. Virgil Goode failed to break 60% for the first time in his reelection. He defeated his same liberal Democrat challenger from 2004 59% to 40%. At the top of the ticket, Republican George Allen won the 5th District but lost the state. In the 5th, he won 54% of the vote to Webb's 45% of the vote. Let's first compare Goode to Allen. The crossover was down to 6% across the district.

Albemarle County: 42% Allen, 45% Goode (+3%)
Appomattox County: 65% Allen, 70% Goode (+5%)
Bedford County: 65% Allen, 71% Goode (+6%)
Brunswick County: 42% Allen, 46% (+4%)
Buckingham County: 54% Allen, 59% Goode (+5%)
Campbell County: 68% Allen, 72% Goode (+4%)
Charlotte County: 60% Allen, 65% Goode (+5%)
Cumberland County: 58% Allen, 63% Goode (+5%)
Fluvanna County: 54% Allen, 57% Goode (+3%)
Franklin County: 61% Allen, 71% Goode (+10%)
Greene County: 62% Allen, 64% Goode (+2%)
Halifax County: 59% Allen, 64% Goode (+5%)
Henry County: 57% Allen, 70% Goode (+13%)
Lunenburg County: 57% Allen, 62% (+5%)
Mecklenburg County: 59% Allen, 64% (+5%)
Nelson County: 46% Allen, 48% Goode (+2%)
Pittsylvania: 65% Allen, 70% Goode (+5%)
Prince Edward County: 52% Allen, 58% Goode (+6%)
Bedford City: 54% Allen, 61% Goode (+7%)
Charlottesville City: 22% Allen, 24% Goode (+2%)
Danville City: 50% Allen, 55% Goode (+5%)
Martinsville City: 43% Allen, 59% Goode (+16%)

Goode's crossover is flat across the district outside of his old State Senate district, with the lowest crossover in the northern parts of the district. What's important about this race is Webb's lackluster performance in the 5th. His 45% performance is just slightly north of John Kerry's 43%. And that's with a wave pushing the Democrats into office, including Jim Webb. In fact, Webb seems to have done uniquely poor in the 5th compared to his statewide surge. Look at this analysis of the shift in voting between 2004 and 2006. The Southside portions of the 5th and 4th are the heart of a strong pro-Republican shift against a Democrat wave. Why?

The Southeast region of the state is also the most heavily African-American. So despite "macaca", George Allen actually fared better these counties, relatively speaking, than George Bush did. Perhaps, you may think, as with urban areas, there is simply not much room for improvement? Not so; in Sussex County (61% African-American), Webb's 52-48 margin of victory was smaller than Kerry's 56-44 win. Again, it's unclear what to the underlying cause of Webb's weakness among African Americans was. Was it the result of more resources going into Central & Southwest Virginia? Allen's immediate effort to earn the endorsement of black politicians? Voter intimidation? We can't say which it was with any certainty.

I don't have a good reason for this shift to Allen. At the state and local level, George Allen has always been successful in reaching out to the African-American community, despite what liberals claim. Here's a dear friend of the St. Paul College community. I can also understand that Webb, strapped for cash, was unable to devote resources to the rural parts of the state. Were African-Americans juts not voting, or were they voting for Allen, or a little of both?

Whatever the reason, Virgil Goode was brought under 60% in 2006 thanks to a decline in his crossover appeal. Allen's 54% showing is only a slight decline from the historic 56% in the 5th District for Republican candidates. Goode would have hit 60% if he had the same crossover he did in 2004 or 2000. Drip by drip, election by election, his support is being narrowed to Republicans. That's fine with a Republican district like the 5th. Especially since the 5th District seemed to behave counter-cyclically in 2006, with something happening on the ground in Southside to blunt the Democratic wave felt nationally.

Scroll up and re-read my discussion of 2004. If Bush's national wave was enough to overcome a swing to the Democrats with demographic changes around Charlottesville, we'd expect the lack of Bush to help the Democrats. A "neutral" election in 2006 might even see the Democrats doing 4 points better in the 5th. Instead, they topped out around 2. That's with a Democratic wave pushing Webb into office. Something, either the strength of George Allen in Southside, the lack of resources of Jim Webb for rural Virginia, or the contrarian voting habits of the 5th District was pushing the 5th toward the Republican Party while everyone else seemed to be going to the Democrats.

Lucky for us, we have some polling from 2006 to add to the story. There are three Survey USA polls from 2006.

July 23-25: Goode 59%, Weed 35%
October 8-10: Goode 56%, Weed 40%
October 30-November 1: Goode 61%, Weed 35%
Election Day: Goode 59%, Weed 40%

The results seemed to be spot on for Goode, although it seems that all of the undecideds broke to Weed in the end. Maybe people didn't want to admit to a pollster, even a robotic one, that they like Weed?

Let's look at the interns for Survey USA.

First, race. The July poll had 19% black voters, the October poll 17%, and the final poll 17%.

Next, party. The July poll favored Republicans 45% to 29% Democrats to 23% Independents. In October, the breakdown was 42% Republican, 33% Democrats, 23% Independents. Final poll, 44% Republican, 32% Democrats, 22% Independents.

One more, ideology. The July poll had 44% conservatives, 35% moderates, and 11% liberals. October, 39% conservative, 39% moderate, and 13% liberals. Final, 42% conservative, 36% moderate, and 11% liberal.

We haven't talked about 2008 yet, that's Part Three, but I want to point out how these polls compare to the current Survey USA polls.

The RDD poll showing it an 11 point race has 20% black voters. The RBS poll showing it a 17 point race has only 12% black voters. That's projecting less black turnout than in 2006. While I understand that black turnout should be down from 2008, in which Survey US had it at 22% but believes the election day total was 25%, I don't see why it should be even less than 2006. The RDD seems more realistic than their RBS.

Also, their party breakdown in the RDD poll seems odd with 36% Republican, 32% Democrats, and 29% Independents. Is that a sign that they are underestimating Republican turnout? I don't know, because their ideology is 47% conservative, 35% moderate, and 10% liberal. That's very similar to 2006. Are more Republicans calling themselves independents these days because of the Tea Party? Could be.

Part three next.

A Look Back on the 5th, Part One

2010-10-21T10:17:00.000-07:00

Over the next few days, I'll be posting my analysis of the 5th District and point out trends to watch for on election night.

In 2000, Virgil Goode switched parties to become an Independent and went on to win his reelection 67% to 31% with a scattering for other candidates. No Republican candidate ran for office. At the top of the ticket, George Bush carried the district 56% to 40% for Al Gore. George Allen defeated Chuck Robb in the 5th district by a similar 57% to 43% margin. A 2% showing by Ralph Nader in the 5th District may have hurt Gore very slightly.

A while back, Ben Tribbett looked at the 5th District results for Bush and Allen to show very minor, but interesting, differences in their performances. It's difficult to put a real trend to the differences in performance for Bush and Allen, but the overall conclusion is that the 5th District's Republican lean was around 56% to 57%, with the Democrats counting on about 43% unless there was a "strong" third party candidate on the far left.

Virgil Goode's performance of almost 10 points better than the Republican party demonstrated the strength of his independent appeal and his deep ties to the district. Here's a short rundown of his performance compared to Bush and Allen across the district.

Albemarle County: 49% Bush, 48% Allen, 58% Goode (+9.5%)
Appomattox County: 62% Bush, 61% Allen, 69% Goode (+7.5%)
Bedford County: 67% Bush, 67% Allen, 79% Goode (+12%)
Buckingham County: 50% Bush, 52% Allen, 62% Goode (+11%)
Campbell County: 65% Bush, 65% Allen, 75% Goode (+10%)
Charlotte County: 57% Bush, 59% Allen, 63% Goode (+5%)
Cumberland County: 56% Bush, 58% Allen, 65% Goode (+8%)
Fluvanna County: 57% Bush, 58% Allen, 66% Goode (+8.5)
Franklin County: 60% Bush, 62% Allen, 82% Goode (+21%!)
Halifax County: 55% Bush, 55% Allen, 63% Goode (+8%)
Henry County: 55% Bush, 57% Allen, 72% Goode (+16%!)
Lunenburg County: 55% Bush, 55% Allen, 65% Goode (+10%)
Mecklenburg County: 57% Bush, 59% Allen, 58% Goode (+0%)
Nelson County: 47% Bush, 50% Allen, 61% Goode (+12.5%)
Patrick County: 66% Bush, 66% Allen, 82% Goode (+16%!)
Pittsylvania County: 65% Bush, 66% Allen, 74% Goode (+8.5%)
Prince Edward County: 51% Bush, 51% Allen, 54% Goode (+3%)
Bedford City: 52% Bush, 51% Allen, 68% Goode (+16.5%)
Charlottesville City: 31% Bush, 30% Allen, 43% Goode (+12.5%)
Danville City: 52% Bush, 52% Allen, 60% Goode (+8%)
Martinsville City: 45% Bush, 47% Allen, 64% Goode (+18%!)

Goode's old State Senate district included Franklin County (+21%), Henry County (+16%), Patrick County (+16%), and Martinsville City (+18%). These were among Goode's top crossover counties. But other impressive showings crisscrossed the district. Strong showings in the Bedford area next door to Franklin. A strong crossover in the "liberal" city of Charlottesville. And oddities I can't begin to explain like 0% in Mecklenburg (because it's in a NC media market? Home county of Democrat John Boyd?), the lowly 5% in Charlotte county (Kelley forgot to campaign?) but a strong 10% in neighboring Lunenburg.

I don't have any public polling of the 5th District from 2000, but I think we can conclude a few major points. First, Goode's over 60% showing was not because the district itself was a 60%+ Republican/conservative district. While strongly Republican for Bush and Allen, Goode's own personal appeal to independents and Democrats who voted for Al Gore and Chuck Robb was able to push him over the 60% benchmark. Second, I wonder if Goode is kicking himself for letting the legislature take out Patrick County and parts of Henry County after the 2000 redistricting. While Goode's crossover dropped significantly by the time we reach 2008, he might have pulled out a narrow victory if he had more of his old base in the 5th District.

Two years later, after redistricting, Virgil Goode defeated Charlottesville liberal Meredith Richards 63% to 36%. This is down slightly from his 2000 victory. This year, Goode openly affiliated with the Republican Party. He also didn't have the enthusiasm of a presidential election getting out the base to elect a Republican President and drag down Senator Chuck Robb. But I've hardly heard anyone argue that 2002 was a year in which Democrats benefited from an "enthusiasm" gap. It's worth noting that after redistricting, the 5th became slightly less Republican. The new 5th, which had Goode give up core supporters in Patrick and Henry to gain voters in Albemarle, Greene, and Brunswick lowered Bush's performance from 56% to 55% and increased Gore's to 41% from 40%, with a stronger showing for Ralph Nader in the district thanks to more of the suburbs of Albemarle. Given Goode's crossover in the rest of Albemarle in 2000 (less than his district wide showing) and in the more African-American counties in the Southeast (like Mecklenburg and Prince Edward), adding Albemarle and Brunswick probably reduced his overall crossover appeal across the district. Not that it mattered in 2002.

There's no polling for the 5th District race in 2004 either, but we can compare it to Bush's performance in the district. Goode won another solid victory, this time over liberal Democrat Al Weed, 64% to 36%, virtually unchanged from 2002. Bush won the district with 56% of the vote, slightly higher than what his 2000 showing in the district would have been. Kerry was able to pull back Nader voters and beat Gore's performance with 43% of the vote. Here's the comparison of Goode and Bush.

Albemarle County: 49% Bush, 50% Goode (+1%)
Appomattox County: 66% Bush, 75% Goode (+9%)
Bedford County: 67% Bush, 76% Goode (+9%)
Brunswick County: 40% Bush, 51% Goode (+11%)
Buckingham County: 53% Bush, 64% Goode (+11%)
Campbell County: 69% Bush, 76% Goode (+7%)
Charlotte County: 58% Bush, 70% Goode (+12%)
Cumberland County: 58% Bush, 65% Goode (+7%)
Fluvanna County: 59% Bush, 62% Goode (+3%)
Franklin County: 63% Bush, 75% Goode (+12%)
Greene County: 66% Bush, 69% Goode (+3%)
Halifax County: 57% Bush, 68% Goode (+11%)
Henry County: 60% Bush, 75% Goode (+15%)
Lunenburg County: 55% Bush, 68% Goode (+13%)
Mecklenburg County: 57% Bush, 66% Goode (+9%)
Nelson County: 50% Bush, 53% Goode (+3%)
Pittsylvania County: 65% Bush, 74% Goode (+9%)
Prince Edward County: 49% Bush, 57% Goode (+8%)
Bedford City: 58% Bush, 64% Goode (+6%)
Charlottesville City: 27% Bush, 29% Goode (+2%)
Danville City: 49% Bush, 58% Goode (+9%)
Martinsville City: 45% Bush, 66% Goode (+21%)

Goode's crossover from Bush is down to 8%, a slight change from the 10% in 2000. But I think the pattern has changed dramatically. Areas in the northern part of the district, such as Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, and Nelson, have very small crossovers while all three were close to average in 2000. His crossover in his old State Senate district is down outside of Martinsville. Instead, Goode has expanded his crossover in the more rural parts of the district. The changes in the crossover could be caused by many factors. Goode is now the incumbent and should be expected to have the advantage across the district. Weed, based in Nelson County, probably had enough resources to devote to the campaign in the northern part of the district. But with a severe financial disadvantage, it's doubtful Weed was able to significantly reach out to voters in the Southside portion of the district.

Looking back, this is the first sign of trouble for Goode. Goode's personal appeal is on the decline and his advantage over a typical Republican seems to be based on a generic advantage as the better financed incumbent. If a Democrat with real resources were able to run against Goode they could cut his crossover appeal down to zero. That would leave him hanging onto the core of Republican voters, around 56% of the district in the period from 2000 to 2004--several good election cycles for Virginia Republicans. What would happen if you combined a good Democratic year with a Democrat with resources?

Stay tuned for 2006 and beyond . . .

Senator Hurt Flip-Flopping to Election Day

2010-10-19T11:01:00.000-07:00

Want a clear sign that the election is just two weeks away?

Watch Senator Hurt flip-flop on issue after issue trying to pander to voters in his race against Tom Perriello.

First, he's flip-flopping on trade and coming out against a trade deal with South Korea that's been supported by both President Bush and President Obama. This is just days after his stuttering performance in the WSLS debate where he was unable to name one issue where he would break from his party. After receiving heat from Perriello for not opposing the trade deal, his handlers have decided that they need Hurt to change his position from waffling to solidly opposed. Norman Leahy has more on the bipartisan idiocy in opposing this trade deal.

So now Hurt finally has an issue where he can claim he disagrees with his party. Good for him. And he's come around to supporting the same job killing, protectionist stance of his opponent, Tom Perriello. Great. Now with either candidate we'll have someone in office who will vote against job creation and innovation.

But that's not good enough. Senator Hurt wants to do more to run our economy into the ditch, again, and end job creation in Virginia. So he's now adopted the anti-uranium mining position of his environmentalist opponent.

Hurt, he said, is also on record as opposing the lifting of the state uranium-mining ban. Both these positions, LaCivita noted, are consistent with Perriello’s views.

First off, if Hurt is opposed to lifting the uranium-mining ban, why did he vote for a study to assess the potential for uranium-mining? I guess he was for it before he was against it! Senator Hurt's opposition to uranium mining means fewer jobs for Southside Virginia. It means retarding the development of the nuclear energy industry around Lynchburg. It means continued dependency on Russia for our uranium needs. Senator Hurt, you should be ashamed for flip-flopping on this issue and putting your election ahead of economic growth for Southside.

How many more flip-flops can Senator Hurt perform before Election Day?

Candidates' Personal Lives

2010-10-18T16:15:00.001-07:00

A few weeks ago, I was provide with a few fascinating leads into the personal life of Senator Robert Hurt. At the time, I followed up on the leads and decided that while probably true, they didn't provide enough reason to bring them to light at this time. Already Senator Hurt had tried to drag Jeff Clark's name through the mud, but I felt like this blog would take the high road and stay away from the dirty politics of personal attacks. I also had hopes that the media in the 5th District would finally step up and perform its duty as the watchdog of the public good.

Well, this is what I get for living democracy in the hands of Catherine Amos and Janelle Rucker.

Now that the press has decided that Tommy Boy's driving lesson is the most important issue in the campaign, I have been contacted by a few people who I informed about this information regarding Senator Hurt. With the election days away, they are encouraging me to put out into the public some overlooked episodes in Hurt's past. This is the only way to ensure that the public can make an informed decision.

I have consistently criticized Tucker Watkins for his decision to attack Tom Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" during the 2008 campaign. Tucker continues to be a gossip mongering spreading absurd lies about Tommy Boy. But I've also been told that the Hurt campaign has also been participating in whisper campaigns against their Democrat opponent, not just his geographic origins but his sexual orientation. This sort of scorched earth politics may be natural for Senator Hurt's highly paid Washington consultants, but it's not how we do things in Virginia.

I have not decided yet if I am going to discuss the information I've been provided about Senator Hurt. But I want to make clear that the tone of this entire election has been offensive.

DCCC Hanging Onto Perriello

2010-10-17T12:37:00.000-07:00

With all of the back and forth over the election, debates over the issues, and accusations of flip flopping, it's hard to keep focus on what really matters.

Demonstrating to people that I'm right and they are wrong.

A few months ago the blogosphere was a buzz with the news that the DCCC had decided to cut off vulnerable Democrats like Tom Perriello and Frank Kratovil. I called this out as absurd reporting by the Washington Post and totally wrong.

The list of vulnerable Democrats is based not on an internal statement by the DCCC, but by the journalist's own guess work. We know this as a fact. How? Because it includes Frank Kratovil of Maryland. DCCC Head Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is NOT going to indicate that they are cutting off his fellow Maryland Democrat. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is NOT going to give up on saving Kratovil. End of story.

The same is true of Perriello. Tommy Boy is the White House's favorite Democrat. They are not going to give up on him. The more people talk about Perriello being cut off, the lazier Robert Hurt's already lackluster campaign will become. Believing this crap is dangerous and could cost Hurt the election.

Well where are we now? Months later?

National Democrats are still pouring money into the reelection bids of freshman Reps. Tom Perriello (Va.), Glenn Nye (Va.) and Frank Kratovil (Md.), even as the party has largely given up on some other candidates facing similarly tough races across the country.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has drawn attention by canceling its reservations for advertising time in a handful of districts where the committee believes its chances are dwindling, shifting its resources to more winnable races.

But although Kratovil, Perriello and Nye all regularly appear on lists of the most endangered incumbents in the country, the DCCC appears to believe they still have a fighting chance and has spent more than $1.5 million combined on the three contests.

I CALLED IT!!!

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2010 Election

March to Keep Fear Alive

Of the vulnerable Democrats mentioned in September, I specifically objected to Perriello and Kratovil. Now, with days to go, the DCCC has cut off the other vulnerable liberals mentioned in the Washington Post story but continues to cling to Perriello and Kratovil. I CALLED IT!

Robert Hurt, Chronic Liar?

2010-10-16T15:12:00.000-07:00

The fund raising numbers for the Perriello and Hurt campaigns are in . . .

Perriello's campaign said it will report raising $810,000 in that time frame, giving him $1.3 million on hand in the final stretch of the contest, which is one of the most closely watched races in the country.

Hurt's camp said it will report raising more than $900,000 in the same period, making it the strongest fundraising showing so far for Hurt, who is running neck and neck in the polls with Perriello. Jeffrey A. Clark, an independent running in the 5th, has not reported.

Hurt out raising Perriello by a solid $90,000, if not more once the numbers come out? That's impressive for the lackluster challenger.

Wait, you say that the FEC numbers show Hurt raising less than $900,000? Only $891,769? Well I guess he's allowed to be generous in rounding, but shouldn't he say "almost $900,000" instead of "more than $900,000?"

We've been here before.

Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, led the crowded GOP field with $101,110 worth of donations.

Hurt’s total was a bit less than the $105,000 his campaign told The Daily Progress in an interview Thursday evening for a story that appeared Friday.

This is the second time that Hurt has exaggerated his fund raising claims. Is career politician and chronic tax raiser Senator Hurt also a chronic liar? Or does his campaign just not know how to count?

Clark Should Stay In Race

2010-10-15T08:02:00.001-07:00

On Wednesday, Senator Robert Hurt finally stepped up to debate the important issues in this year's election. Unfortunately, he appeared only with his Democrat opponent Tom Perriello. Independent conservative Jeff Clark was purposefully excluded from the debates because of Senator Hurt's opposition. There are several inconvenient truths about Hurt's weaselly attempts to shut down Clark's campaign.

First, it is in direct contrast to Hurt's refusal in the primaries to consider one-on-one debates with his Republican opponent Laurence Verga. Back then, Senator Hurt said, "Ignoring all the other candidates as Mr. Verga has done in this request is nothing more than a political stunt and is frankly insulting to the fine contributions each of the other candidates have brought to this campaign."

Senator Hurt is flip-flopping on the importance of debates including all candidates. Hypocrite Hurt.

Second, this is nothing more than a political stunt from his handlers that goes against what Senator Hurt originally said when asked about debating Jeff Clark. On the campaign trail, Senator Hurt said he would debate Clark. Then his handlers realized they didn't want this to happenand forced Hurt to go back on his word.

Senator Hurt is flip-flopping on what he said and going back on his word. We call that lying where I'm from.

Third, excluding a third party candidate from the debates goes against the precedent set by former Congressman Virgil Goode, who always pushed to include all candidates in the debates. Goode always understood that it's better to foster democracy and a discussion of ideas than try to score political points by excluding a rival from the debates. Hurt claims he wants to listen to his constituents, but unfortunately he doesn't want them listening to all of the candidates.

Senator Hurt is undermining one of the basic principles of our democracy, that every citizen has a right to be heard and all candidates should be respected as equals.

Fourth, this stance had resulted in Senator Hurt turning down invitations from seniors and veterans. Some of the oldest and most respected debates in the 5th District will now be between Clark and Perriello because Senator Hurt is too afraid to include Clark.

Senator Hurt is cutting and running from our seniors and veterans, putting politics ahead of public service.

Despite these shenanigans, some are pushing for Clark to pull out of the race, instead of pushing for Hurt to accept Clark in the debates. It only goes to show how much of a fraud many of these so-called Tea Party activists are that they care more about silencing a true conservative than standing up to an elite member of the establishment.

I firmly believe that Clark should not pull out of the campaign. To do so, unconditionally, would hand Senator Hurt exactly what he wants: a silenced opposition on the right. Furthermore, pulling out now would end the ongoing lawsuit by the Rutherford Institute against this two party duopoly. I support this lawsuit moving forward and hence call on Clark to stay in the fight.

Right now, so-called Tea Party activists are calling on Clark to pull out of the race because they fear that he may act as a spoiler to Senator Hurt. This is fundamentally undemocratic and elitist. Imagine the snobbery of insulting a candidate's supporters for being too dumb to make the decision for themselves if they want to support Clark, and potentially diminish support for Senator Hurt, or if they want to hold their nose and vote for Senator Hurt anyway. In an election we trust the voters to make the right decision. Why are Clark's supporters being questioned for their inteligence. It is their right to weigh the pro's and con's of voting for Clark, voting for Hurt, or hell even voting for Perriello. Or writing in someone. Or not voting at all. Individual choice is at the core of our democracy.

Clark has every right to stay in the race. His supporters have every right to vote for whomever they wish. I see a constant stream of Hurtards complaining that Perriello's campaign is just negative attacks on Hurt. But then they turn around and try to bully Clark and his supporters by focusing entirely on negatives about Perriello. Maybe Hurtards should spend more time selling their candidate to Clark and his supporters? You attract more flies with honey than vinegar.

Brian Moran as Chairman. Why?

2010-10-14T13:30:00.001-07:00

I didn't care when I first heard about Dickie Cranwell stepping down as Chairman of the Democrat Party of Virginia. I cared even less when I heard that former Delegate and Democrat primary bronze medalist Brian Moran was the shoe in to replace him. Trading one liberal out of touch elitist for another. His ties to the corrupt lobbying firm PMA through his brother Congressman Jim Moran, now barely ahead in the polls, make Brian Moran the perfect face for a disorganized party going into the 2011 elections trying to defend their vulnerable State Senate majority. Thank you Democrats! Can you make this any easier for us?

But then I noticed Virginia's leading investigative blogger, Ben Tribbett, blog about the selection process behind Moran. According to Tribbett, Moran was the pick of Senator Mark Warner, with Senator Jim Webb going along with no real interest (2012 retirement please?). This confirms what I've heard from other sources that Moran is the consensus pick of established Democrats. What surprised me is that Tribbett ties the selection process to former lobbyist David Hallock, who as of October 1st is working for Senator Mark Warner. Hallock, as a lobbyist for Kemper Consulting, supported the efforts to end the moratorium on uranium mining in Virginia and is one of several Kemper Consulting lobbyists who have contributed to Robert Hurt during his ten year career.

Why is Warner backing Moran as Chairman of the Democrat Party of Virginia? Jeff Schapiro of the Richard Times outlines several of Moran's problems, including his ties to the for-profit college industry that is coming under attack from President Barack Obama and other Democrats. So we have a lackluster liberal loser with ties to earmark corruption and questionable institutions as the pick for rebuilding the Democrat Party of Virginia?

Something doesn't smell fresh in the land of Arlington.

Paul Goldman, who's years in politics makes him a walking history book of Democrat Party politics, points out that Moran is giving up an almost certain shot at a safe Democrat State Senate seat in 2011 by becoming Chairman. Why would Moran do this? Either Moran didn't feel secure in his chances at the nomination, making the Chairmanship a silver medal at best for a candidate that couldn't even win a Democrat primary for a State Senate seat. Or Moran is being tempted with something bigger and better than a State Senate seat.

It's clear that being state party chair following what is sure to be another pathetic election for Virginia Democrats isn't a great gig. Trying to organize the party in advance of what could be another bad year in 2011 isn't exactly an easy job. Moran has ruled out a run for office in 2013, but has been mum on other years. Warner, the former state party chair who used the position to leverage himself into a statewide run, is now claiming that he doesn't believe the chairmanship should be used for higher office. Hah! I wouldn't be surprised if a slot opens up for Moran in the future, after 2013, that becomes payback for his willingness to take the Chairmanship.

There's one question that we haven't answered yet. Why would this deal even take place? Moran could just as well go for the State Senate and sit around waiting for a better job to open up after 2013. By doing this, he's probably locked down Warner's support for future office. But what's in it for Warner? Why would Warner and the other insiders even entertain this deal, with all of the political baggage that comes with Moran.

Just weeks before the November election, Warner is moving to lock down the Chairmanship for Moran and prevent anyone else from mounting a bid.

The plot thickens.

It's likely that three, potentially four, Virginia Democrats will be looking for a job after November. I rank Connolly as a likely Democratic hold, so we'll put him aside for now. Boucher has had a good run and would be an unlikely pick for future office. Nye has so alienated the Democrat base I can't see him having a future in politics. That leaves Tommy Boy.

If Dickie had announced his retirement some time after the election, there's a good chance that Tom Perriello would be out looking for a job. And a good chance that Perriello could make a bid and block Moran from the Chairmanship. Warner has been publicly supportive of Perriello, but this whole situation makes me wonder if Warner and other Virginia Democrats are just going through the motions to show support while working behind the scenes to kill off any Perriello comeback in the future.

Look at the facts. Warner is selecting Moran through a former lobbyist who has contributed to Robert Hurt. This lobbyist was also involved in the push to end the moratorium on uranium mining in Virginia, a key issue in this year's election between Hurt and Perriello. It's widely known that the moratorium will be addressed in the 2012 General Assembly Session, shortly after the scientific study of mining is finalized and released. Do the powers that be in Virginia politics want a heated debate over uranium mining that allows treehuggers and luddites to kill this major economic development project? Or do they want to make sure that both parties remain silent on the issue so it can sail through the legislature easily?

That's just one reason why Warner and others want to push Perriello permanently from the public light. A 2013 gubernatorial run by Perriello would resemble the days of Henry "Howlin'" Howell. The Big Boys don't want to go through that again and are calling on their long friend and ally, Mark Warner, to make sure the Democratic Party, while hopelessly liberal and out of touch, remains a pawn of the lobbyists and special interests just as much as the Republican Party is. These are the same "respectable" folks that Warner trotted out in 2004 to make the case that raising taxes was necessary and had to be done. Aren't you glad that Warner's looking out for the best interests of Virginia?

Jay Warren Is A Pathetic Reporter!

2010-10-13T07:14:00.000-07:00

This evening, Robert Hurt will finally step up and debate Tom Perriello at a candidate forum hosted by WSLS in Roanoke with "reporter" Jay Warren as the moderator. I say "reporter" because his recent candidate profiles leave me asking if Warren attended the same journalism school of Tea Party terrorist Mike Troxel. Warren has shown himself unable to do even basic reporting. His candidate profile of Robert Hurt focuses heavily on Hurt's ties to the district.

“Yeah he's got a lot of history. His family's been here forever,” Hicks said.

That becomes obvious when you walk down the street with Hurt, where everyone stops to say hello. Or Hurt stops them, even the reporters.

"Hey here's Russell. Russell's an ace crack reporter for the Star-Tribune. He does a great job,” Hurt said, introducing the reporter to me. I asked Hurt about his connection with Chatham.

WARREN: “What does Chatham mean to you?”

HURT: “Chatham, I think, means to me personally so much because of course it's where I grew up and it's where my people are and I love it for that reason.”

WARREN: “But for an ambitious person, a lot of people would say you move to the big city, that's where you make all the money, that's where all the action is. Why not go to the big city? Why come to the small town Virginia?”

I can't read any more because I'm about to throw up.

Warren leaves out some important details in Hurt's biography.

Why doesn't Warren ask Hurt about being born in New York City and growing up for nine years in New York City?

Why doesn't Warren ask Hurt about his time at one of the leading private prep schools in the nation?

Why doesn't Warren ask him about his continued attendance at private universities? Does Hurt have any experiences with "the little people?"

Why doesn't Warren ask Hurt about his long term agenda. Yes, an "ambitious" man might move to a big city. Or he could move to a backwoods corner of the state where he can easily secure a political base in order to run for higher office.

Warren is a pathetic reporter, giving even Catherine Amos a run for her money. If this is the game he brings to the debate tonight prepare to be disappointed. It will be a Warren-Hurt love fest.

Hurt's Bailout, And You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

2010-10-11T11:41:00.000-07:00

Back in February, I noted that Senator Hurt's lackluster fundraising was going to cause serious problems for GOP plans to knock off Tom Perriello. A bailout of Hurt by Washington special interests was bound to happen if Hurt didn't kick up his fundraising on his own. He bled himself dry winning a Republican primary that should have been a cake walk for any standard conservative candidate. In May, we noted that Hurt continued to struggle and had about as much on hand as former Congressman Virgil Goode, who wasn't even running. We've been waiting for this Hurt bailout, and I explained the possible forms it would come:

This will mean more funneling of corporate and lobbyist money into Hurt's campaign. He needs a major cash infusion and it doesn't matter where it is from. With the cap on maximum contributions, look for Hurt's campaign to try new and desperate tactics. Perhaps LaCivita will pioneer the use of "independent" corporate ads in the post-Citizens United era. . . .

How long until some of Hurt's big donors are running ads in the Republican primary defending him? I have nothing wrong with corporations expressing free speech, just like George Soros is free to give money to Tommy Boy. But when Soros does it we know who really owns Tommy's vote. So let's not pretend that Hurt is anything but a tool of the big corporations that depend on Washington for bailout money when the corporations pick up the slack to give him the nomination.

I was wrong to think that Hurt needed the bailout to save his ass in the primary, but it seems true that the Washington establishment is pulling out all the stops to get Hurt elected. The NRCC has been spending heavily on this race. And the NRCC isn't the only outside group spending money. The US Chamber of Commerce has also gotten involved, but there are some serious questions about their funding.

Here is the story, plain as day. The UC Chamber of Commerce has one bank account for all of its activities. Money goes on, money comes out. The money that goes in isn't tracked or accounted for in anyway. It's a slush fund. Money comes in from foreign companies, some of them owned by foreign countries, hoping to influence the US political process through the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber tells us not to worry because they don't use this money for running political ads, which would be illegal. But the fact is we don't know.

When President Obama and Speaker Boehner bring new free trade deals to the floor, they'll go to then Congressman Hurt and explain that while this is just more of the same job-killing outsourcing that Southside has experienced for decades, they need his vote. After all, they financed his campaign against Tommy Boy in the first place. They'll call in their favor . . .

Of course this isn't the only bailout happening in the 5th District. Perriello is in the fight of his life and his friends and allies are on the air too. The DCCC is running ads attacking Senator Hurt. Perriello's union and environmental friends have done polling on the race and I expect them to join the fight on TV soon too.

Who else?

None other than George Soros.

The media has finally decided to start reporting on Soros, an infamous opponent of Israel, bankrolling the new liberal "Jewish" lobbying group J STret. Just like the Chamber hiding its contributions from foreign companies, J Street was hiding its contributions from an avowed opponent of Israel. I've blogged about the connection between Soros, J Street, and Perriello before. As I said then, Perriello is at the vanguard of a radical revolution trying to tear down America's hegemony and put our national security in the hands of the UN and other international bodies. He is not a pawn in this game. He's one of the leading fighters.

When will some Soros funded group enter into the 5th District of Virginia? When will we see ads run by "Virginian Families United For Virginia Values in Virginia" or something absurd like that defending Perriello?

It's sad that the 5th District race is coming down to these two candidates. There is no doubt that Hurt will be a lapdog of the Republican establishment that brought us the deficit spending of the Bush years that culminated in the Wall Street bailouts. He will not be a friend to the Tea Party conservatives like Coburn and DeMint. But on the other side Perriello, who has demonstrated a great degree of independence on cultural and social issues, but who is at the forefront of destroying Israel and retreating from America's place at the top of the pack in the world.

Hurt Campaign Meltdown!

2010-10-06T04:47:00.000-07:00

Egg is all over the face of supposed "expert" Larry Sabato for saving that the momentum is behind Robert Hurt in the race in Virginia's 5th District. Since that time several polls have come out showing that Perriello is still solidly in the game. Sabato and his aide Isaac Wood are trying to cut the baby in half between the bogus Survey USA polls and the other polls in the race which have shown a much, much closer election. Wood estimates a six point race, which is the highest any non-Survey USA poll has shown the race and that was created by Republican polling firms specifically excluding Jeff Clark from the poll. If the most that Hurt can post without Clark being polled is six points, it's a lot closer than that!

Fresh on the heels of a poll from Tommy Boy's environmentalist and union friends showing it a one point race, which was dismissed as just another "biased" Democrat poll, comes a truly independent, nonpartisan poll from the professional publication The Hill. They are polling key races across the country and find Perriello to be among the best positioned incumbent Democrats in their poll! He is behind by one point without even including Jeff Clark in the poll, which could knock off Hurt by three or four points! Could Perriello actually be leading?!

Perriello's Plan for Victory

2010-10-05T16:16:00.000-07:00

Tom Perriello is giving free rides to the polls for UVA Students.

Remember how close he won last time? His trial lawyer supporter John Grisham does.

Perriello won that election by 727 votes over former Rep. Virgil Goode “after they found some missing ballot boxes in Charlottesville,” Grisham said to chuckles from the crowd.

Actually, the votes that put Perriello over the top were absentee ballots that Charlottesville election officials didn’t count until after Election Day.

There were multiple rumors of voter fraud in Charlottesville in 2008, although the Obama Justice Department never seemed to get around to investigating them. Too busy with the Black Panthers I guess. Perriello is preparing the steal the election through the UVA student vote, bringing up the question why college students are allowed to vote in Charlottesville in the first place. Why hasn't this been fixed at the state level?

Hurt Blowout or Tied Race?

2010-10-01T09:41:00.001-07:00

We are entering the last month of the election cycle and the whining from the two major candidates has reached historical levels. While Hurt complains about his treatment by the media, Perriello has started to complain about the constant stream of SurveyUSA polls showing him toast. Where's the beef? Not with either one of these so-called men.

Before this, it was Twittergate. Before that was the debate over debates. Complaints over the times of Tommy's Town Halls. Jeff Clark's finances. Threats to Perriello's family. And so forth. And so on.

A lot of style, a lot of drama, and not a lot of substance.

If we actually look at the polling numbers, instead of just throwing a Tommy Temper Tantrum, we might begin to realize why this election has been so emotional, so dramatic, but so substance-less.

Eight months ago, back in February, the first public poll of the race in VA-05 was released by Public Policy Polling. They showed the election, before the Republican primary and much of Hurt's rise in name recognition, at 44% to 44%. TIED. Dead even.

Think about that. On the one hand, Hurt was a virtual unknown to the district outside of the areas he had represented. The primary campaign had barely gotten under way. Certainly this meant he had room to grow?

But this was after a year of even more drama and emotion directed at Perriello. Forged letters. Effigy burnings. Cap and tax. Health care takeover. Town halls. A failed stimulus. After the worst Democrat President since Jimmy Carter, Tommy Boy was still tied? Certainly this meant he could mount a come back once he had a clear opponent to attack?

The biggest problem for the Perriello camp was the makeup of the poll. The February PPP poll was of registered voters, not likely voters. It represented the district as a whole, not the people motivated enough to get off their asses and vote. It showed a district that went narrow for McCain, not heavily Republican like past elections in 2004, and 2000, and 1996 and . . . you get the idea.

As soon as pollsters started screening out unlikely voters, the first time Obama voters like college students at UVA or African-Americans in Danville, a gap was bound to open up between Hurt and Perriello.

But the poll had some good news for Perriello. Throw in a third party candidate with Tea Party values and suddenly Hurt was down to 27% and the Tea Partier got 19%. Perriello was unchanged at 44%. Once a third party candidate announced against Hurt, a clear result of his primary win, and it was possible for Perriello to open up a gap against Hurt. Or at least hold it close.

What has happened?

Let's take a look, without Survey USA. I'll address them later.

The next we have is in late July. Five months later, the Republican polling firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates showed Hurt with a six point lead. Hurt was up to 49% and Perriello down to 43%. The poll's internals show a more conservative, more Republican electorate than the representative sample from PPP. The infamous enthusiasm gap strikes!

But this poll excluded independent candidate Jeff Clark. I know that the betrayal of conservative values by Jim McKelvey and others has hurt Clark's chances, but he should at least have been included in the poll. With Clark polling at around 6 to 4 percent in other polls, this could have cut down Hurt's margin over Perriello in half or even eliminate it.

Also worth noting is that even in this more conservative, more Republican voting sample, Perriello is still at 43%. That leads me to believe that a poll taken at the same time of registered voters, not just likely, would put him over the 44% that PPP found. If the poll included Clark, I suspect it could have shown a small, low digit edge for Perriello. Perriello's ads were making a difference among the public at large, but he's like a salmon swimming up stream against the enthusiasm gap. Right into the mouth of Robert the hungry grizzly bear.

A month later, in late August, we have a Democratic polling firm, Global Strategy Group, showing a two point race. Here Hurt is down to 44%, Perriello is 42%, and Clark is at 6%. This is roughly what I'd expect from the Ayers poll if it had included Clark. Almost no movement.

A few weeks later, in mid-September, the Perriello campaign released their own poll from Benenson Strategy Group showing . . . . you guessed it, a two point race. Hurt is at 46%, Perriello at 44%, and Clark at 4%. This is virtually identical to the Global Strategy Group poll. And virtually identical to what Ayers should have shown with Clark included.

And all of them are about what we would have expected from PPP's February poll if we took their poll of registered voters and modified it for (1) the enthusiasm gap among likely voters favoring Republicans and (2) Clark being on the ballot, but not getting as much support as he could if Jim "Judas" McKelvey and other hadn't changed their mind and broken promises.

So here we are at the start of October. And the race, as far as I can tell, is exactly where it was in February.

I'm reminded of what the good folks at Southside Central predicted right after the Republican primary:

First prediction on the general election vote percentage: Hurt 48%, Perriello 48% Clark 4%. If McKelvey throws his support behind Hurt, it becomes Hurt 49+%, Perriello 49+%, Clark <2%.

First OddsMakers on the general election winner: Hurt 50%, Perriello 50%, Clark 0%. Yep, it’s a fresh start and a toss-up right now.

Ain't that the truth?

Everything that you've read about in the newspapers for the past eight months has been meaningless. The debates, the talk about style, all of it. Everything.

And here is why I'm not mentioning Survey USA. Here's what the campaign looks like if you included Survey USA.

February: The race is tied before polling shifts to likely voters. (PPP)
Mid August: Hurt has surged to a 23 point lead as the polling shifts to likely voters. (Survey USA)
Late July: Perriello has mounted a comeback and is down by 6 without Clark included, potentially down by two or three with Clark included. (Ayers)
Late August: Perriello's comeback settles out at two points behind. (Global)
Later August: Perriello's campaign collapses and he's behind by 26! (Survey USA)
Mid September: The come back kid, Perriello has recovered and is behind by 2. (Beneson)
Late September: Once again race shifts and Hurt is back up by 23 points! (Survey USA)

Seriously? Is the district really swinging back and forth that much?

I don't think so.

Survey USA is clearly polling an entirely different reality in its assumptions about turnout in VA 05 this year. If it was just Survey USA against one polling firm, I could see the argument to split the difference. But four against one?

I think Tommy's a crybaby to go to the press with complaints against Survey USA, but the argument that they are showing an absurdly high number of early voters--a mathematically impossible high number--is persuasive. Survey USA seems to be pre-choosing voters to call and then adding a likely voter screen, something that may come up with a scenario that has an impossibly high enthusiasm gap benefiting the GOP.

If you average together the Survey USA polls (around a 24 point lead for Hurt) and the three other likely voter polls (without correcting for Ayer's excluding Clark) and average it out, you get about a 8.5% gap. Which is, from earlier Tweeting, what Nate Silver had predicted for Perriello's defeat in VA-05.

Nate gives Perriello a 88% chance of being defeated. Not surprising if you assume an 8 point spread. Nate doesn't post the House numbers, but he notes that Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates ahead by six to eight points end up winning 89% of the time. About what he has for Hurt against Perriello.

I entirely respect a model that treats all pollsters fairly. But I think it's clear that something is clearly off with Survey USA this year in VA 05. Nate hasn't discussed specific House races yet, but I'd love to know if there is any other House race this year that has such a high variance between polls. Survey USA is clearly an outlier and by a huge margin. Is this seen anywhere else in the country?

What if we were to pull it from the batch? I don't know all of the calculations in Nate's House predictions, but I'll just put out this guess. The remaining polls would average out at about 3.3, which would put the race in the 3-6 range and give Perriello a 79% chance of defeat. But if you were to try to fix the Ayers poll to include Clark you'd get closer to 1.7 or 2 depending on how much including Clark narrowed the gap. That puts you within a 55% chance of defeat, if not better for Perriello to hold on. In other words? About even.

This district is narrowly divided right now. The election isn't going to change many minds. It never was. All this talk about independents, moderates, and swing voters is bullshit.

This election was always about who could unite conservatives and keep them energized. Hurt's campaign has failed on two fronts. His vote for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia alienated true conservatives who weren't drunk of the GOP Kool Aid. His lackluster campaign has failed to energize people outside of his traditional base of supporters. Just being a Republican in a bad year for Democrats may still be enough for Robbie. But he's made this election closer than it should be and Perriello still has a shot at pulling this out.

Robert Hurt, Emo Teen?

2010-09-29T20:35:00.000-07:00

Our little Robert seems to be growing up. He's finally hitting the angry and emotional teenage years where he can't take anyone criticizing him. The big bad Danville Register & Bee has just pushed him around so much he had to write them a heartfelt letter explaining just how he feels.

Your stated fondness for Rep. Tom Perriello’s taxpayer-funded town hall meetings — gatherings in which an incumbent asks hard-working and busy citizens to come and listen to him — is lazy business when compared to the on-the-ground campaign we’ve conducted for the past 10 months. We have not stood in one place and told voters to come to us. We have sought them out by the thousands all over the Fifth District — in their homes, on the streets, on their farms, in their businesses and in their workplaces.

Whaaaaa!

Here's more of Robert's on-the-ground campaign:

Hurt is pathetic. He won't attend any fair debates, a complete reversal of his stance in the primary. He holds secret forums and locks out the public from his events that pander to his narrow base of good ol' boy friends. The same "conservatives" that rallied behind him in the primary to claim he was a great guy, despite his vote for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia.

The sad thing is that Hurt can't take the minor amount of pressure the press has applied to him. What would he do under real questioning? Why hasn't the press investigated his time in New York? His time at a wealthy Northern Virginia boarding school? His work as a lawyer? It's time for the press in the district to step it up.

Flashback: Hurt on Debates

2010-09-27T17:40:00.000-07:00

Remember when Robert Hurt valiantly defended the right of all Republican candidates to be included in debates?

Hurt could not be reached directly, but released a statement through his campaign manager dismissing the challenge.

“Ignoring all the other candidates as Mr. Verga has done in this request is nothing more than a political stunt and is frankly insulting to the fine contributions each of the other candidates have brought to this campaign,” Hurt said in a statement.

What changed? Why won't Hurt debate all of the candidates?

I guess Hurt has one set of rules for debates when multiple opponents helps him divide the opposition, and another rule for when multiple opponents means a conservative voice holding him accountable.

PDS Spreads to Media!

2010-09-23T15:32:00.000-07:00

An epidemic is sweeping across Virginia! No one is safe! Not only our fellow Virginians, but victims are falling ill in Washington DC. If our nation's capitol isn't safe, where will we hide? This blog may be the only safe outpost for reason and sanity in these dangerous times. So keep reading!

I first identified this epidemic through close and careful study of the Hurtards attacking Tom Perriello for EVERYTHING. Perriello Derangement Syndrome, or PDS, creates an irrational hatred of Tommy Boy. If he votes in agreement with you, it means he's just desperate and trying to win reelection. If he votes against you, it shows how he's the lap dog of Pelosi. If he votes against Pelosi, the vote must be of no consequence. If he schedules town halls at a time inconvenience for you, he's hiding from the voters. If he's willing to debate anyone, anywhere, he's getting too much media coverage.

I was pleased to see this piece by Peter Galuszka talking about Perriello's willingness to defend his views to his constituents. There is no doubt: Perriello is a better man, a better human, than Robert Hurt will ever be. Perriello is honest, hard working, and fundamentally decent. Robert Hurt is a career politicians. The rest of what I want to say about him isn't appropriate for a public blog.

I warned the Hurtards that their PDS had to stop. They were setting themselves up for being mocked by Perriello and his supporters for being so irrational. Perriello is now up with ads making this point. The ad lists over and over again his record of independence while another person, the stereotypical Hurtard, continues to complain that he's not really independent and those issues don't matter. Try telling the farmers in our district that opposing increased regulations doesn't matter. Try telling our hunters that defending the 2nd Amendment doesn't matter.

Sadly, PDS appears to be spreading. I've been tracking the sad, pathetic existence of Catherine Amos throughout the campaign. Her reporting is so terrible I have even suggested she might be a secret agent of Tom Perriello, because her reporting is so bad it offends anyone with a basic grasp of reality.

I've also noted another dim-witted floozy reporter Janelle Rucker of the Roanoke Times. The editor's of the paper eventually published a note online correcting her story, but I never did receive a reply to my e-mail pointing out the error. I guess she doesn't want to admit she made a mistake. It's easier going on making mistakes that way.

Unfortunately, it's not just these floozies here in Virginia who are suffering from an inability to get the facts straight. Who can forget Politico's Glenn Thrush and his failure to fact check an NRCC provided transcript (provided by notorious Twittergate villian Andy Sere!) when he claimed Tommy Boy accused his constituents of racism. Today, the Hill's Sean Miller also fell victim.

Virginia Rep. Tom Perriello expects to get the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, which could help his uphill reelection battle.

The fact that the freshman Democrat's campaign touted the pending endorsement a week before it's expected to be officially announced shows how much he needs the boost. His campaign recently circulated an internal poll that showed Perriello tied with Republican challenger Robert Hurt.

Wow! Tom Perriello is DESPERATE. Look here every body, another Democrat clinging to reelection and doing everything possible to win. I'm a great reporter! I just reported something that reinforces conventional wisdom! High five!

The problem is that Perriello didn't tout the pending endorsement today, he issued a statement in response to Robert Hurt preemptively dismissing the endorsement! Hurt, desperate to hold off Perriello's surge in the polls, decided to generate a story late in the week about the endorsement and try to push it aside as meaningless. Perriello simply responded to this desperate act by rightfully touting the important endorsement.

I even made a comment on Sean Miller's article pointing this out to him and directing him to the news story. A few hours later, Miller "updated" the article to include Hurt's dismissal of the pending endorsement. But he didn't update the article to correct the actual chronology of events. Why? Because a desperate Republican challenger against a confident Democratic incumbent isn't conventional wisdom! Sean is just like Glenn, Janelle, and Catherine. They only publish what they know everyone else is saying! They are little more than lemmings doing what the mob of reporters around them are saying. Worthless!

Senator Hurt, Hiding From the Issues

2010-09-22T12:15:00.000-07:00

He won't debate, he won't hold public forums, and he won't answer questions that come from anyone but his friends at Fox & Friends! Introducing Senator Robert Hurt:

Hurt's Carpetbagging Team Repeats Lies

2010-09-21T03:52:00.000-07:00

Today, Robert Hurt announced that he would decline yet another public debate with Tom Perriello because he is afraid of Jeff Clark. Add to the list of groups Hurt is not snubbing THE AMERICAN LEGION. That's right folks, Hurt doesn't want to talk to veterans who have risked their lives for our country and our freedoms. For shame!

Of course that didn't stop Hurt's carpetbagging team to include the lie, again, that Hurt has participated in "dozens" of public debates.

"Dozens?"

How does Amanda Henneberg live with herself knowing that she's selling her soul to whoever is paying her salary? Having worked for Charlie Crist, has she given up any sense of human decency and is willing to repeat any lie that he bosses tell her to say?

Robert Hurt has not participated in "dozens" of public debates. That's an outright lie. Does Amanda Henneberg even know that it's a lie? How much does she actually know about Robert Hurt, his background, and his campaign? She also claimed, "As we have made clear from the beginning of this campaign, Robert is happy to debate Congressman Perriello one-on-one.” Well we know that's not true, Robert wasn't clear from the beginning of this campaign at all!

Here's the question. Is Amanda Henneberg purposefully lying, or is she so ignorant she doesn't know she's lying?

More Lazy Reporting in VA05

2010-09-20T03:16:00.000-07:00

Did Catherine Amos get hired by the Roanoke Times under a pseudonym?

Clark is a Danville Tea Party member, while Hurt has met with tea party members and wants their vote. Perriello, too, has met with the Lynchburg Tea Party -- in a meeting closed to the press. Jim McKelvey, a former tea party candidate who ran for the Republican nomination in the 5th District, has endorsed Hurt.

Ah, no Janelle, Perriello's meeting with the Lynchburg Tea Party was not closed to the press. That would be Hurt. Perriello was the one meeting at Captain D's across the street because he wanted the meeting open to the public.

Reporters covering the 5th District of Virginia: Bad Reporters or WORST Reporters?

Tom Perriello: Six Degrees of Hollywood

2010-09-13T19:03:00.000-07:00

The NRCC is finally up to defend their boy Senator Robert Hurt from the apparent bully in the 5th District of Virginia, Tom Perriello. First time in his life that Tommy Boy's ever been accused of the bully. And now, having spent the last two years telling us that Perriello was a New York, we're told that he's a Hollywood liberal!

I've long said that the Republican Party needs to do more to investigate the ties of Tommy Boy and his friends. Who else went to Yale with Tom Perriello? What other potential subversive politicians come from the Albemarle area where Perriello makes his home? I did a little bit of research of my own and discovered some worrying ties . . .

As we all know, Tom Perriello has received significant support from other leading Democrats, including former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine.

Former Governor Tim Kaine is now Chairman of the DNC, the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC has received funds from notorious actor Kevin Bacon!

Wow, Tom Perriello is practically in the pocket of Kevin Bacon. Talk about bringing home the pork!

How far does the influence of Bacon-flavored politics go?

It's worse than I originally thought.

Kevin Bacon was in the 1987 comedy Planes, Trains, & Automobiles with Matthew Lawrence.

Lawrence, as we all know, was in the 1988 movie Pulse with Cliff De Young.

Now it gets interesting.

Cliff De Young was in the classic (how could you forget!) The Skateboard Kid (1993) with Trevor Lissauer.

And Trevor Lissauer was . . . in Eden's Curve with Lindwood Duncan, Virgil Goode's ol' press secretary!

Virgil was on the Appropriations Committee and his love of pork extended to his staff, with Duncan a notorious fan of hot sausage. No wonder they have links to Kevin Bacon! It's sad to see that Tom Perriello has also gone Hollywood, just like Virgil.

Want to avoid a government shut down? Call Senator Hurt!

2010-09-10T12:51:00.001-07:00

What will a new Republican majority in Congress bring? Ask NRCC Vice chair Lynn Westmoreland:

Speaking to hundreds of activists gathered at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington for the Faith and Freedom Conference, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) urged the audience to stand with House Republicans when they go toe-to-toe with President Barack Obama.

Westmoreland said his caucus — presuming it takes control of the House come November — aims to pass spending bills that Obama is likely to veto. He predicted Republicans would not be able to override such a veto, creating a standoff that could cause Congress to grind to a halt.

“If the government shuts down, we want you with us,” he said.

The congressman recalled a similar shutdown that took place in 1995, when Newt Gingrich — also a speaker at the conference — was serving as House speaker. A future standstill could temporarily close national parks or delay payments from the government, Westmoreland speculated.

Finally, Republicans have the nerve to stand up for fiscal responsibility and get our budget in order. Even if it means some people will have to make sacrifices.

I wonder what Robert Hurt would say about the prospects of a government shutdown? Here's how he explained his 2004 vote for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia:

“The bottom line is we need to move our budget process ahead,” said Hurt. “Every day that passes without a budget, we’re closer to a government shutdown."

Several times during the primary, Robert Hurt defended his vote for higher taxes as a way to avoid a government shut down, saying that it wasn't consistent with his oath of office to shut the government down. Now we know who the White House will call up when they want to find a RINO to vote for higher taxes and avoid a government shut down . . . Thanks Robert! Let's see how fast it takes for you to reverse your pledge not to raise taxes.

Who is Robert Hurt?

2010-09-10T06:11:00.000-07:00

Southside Virginia likes to think they know Senator Robert Hurt. Son of a wealthy and established family, he went off to college before coming back home to be a country lawyer. Plain and simple, right?

Well . . .

Maybe not.

I'm surprised that in a heated campaign in which opponents of Tom Perriello continue to attack him as a "New York lawyer" and indicate confusion over his past that more attention hasn't been given to Robert's past.

For example, despite the attack of "New York lawyer" Perriello was born and raised in the 5th District. 100% Not only was he born in the district, his entire early education was in the district. Perriello didn't leave until he started college at Yale. Young 18 year old Perriello was a Virginian, born and raised.

Robert Hurt? He'd like you to think he was just as Virginian, but there are some serious gaps in his story. First off, that he was born in New York City is obviously not common knowledge among his supporters. You've got to love the way Robert dismisses the situation of his birth.

In his law office across the street from the courthouse on Main Street in Chatham, Hurt says his birth in New York was simply a result of where his mother was at the time.

He lived in New York for about nine years but prefers to talk about growing up in Chatham, where he and his family live across the street from his parents. He was elected to Chatham's Town Council in 2000, then the House of Delegates in 2001 and the state Senate in 2007.

Newsflash Robert, all births are a result of where the mother is. Or did your parents never explain the birds and the bees to you?

Hurt lived in New York for nine years but claims to have grown up in Chatham. Does coming down to Virginia during the summer count for citizenship in the Old Dominion?

More importantly, a lot of Hurt supporters talk about how he graduated from Hargrave Military Academy. The fact is he "attended" the Academy before being shipped off to the wealthy Northern Virgina boarding school of Episcopal High School. Did Robert attend Episcopal High School all four years? If so, that cuts his continued time in the district growing up to less than five years.

Flash forward and we get a snap shot of Hurt's time at law school:

I went to law school. There I obtained invaluable legal training. But I also sought out that practical experience that can only be obtained in the field. During my law school years, I worked in the criminal litigation section of the Mississippi Attorney General’s Office and in the U.S Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Mississippi. During my first summer of law school, I worked in the Dekalb County District Attorney’s Office in Atlanta. During my second summer of law school, I worked for the Virginia Attorney General’s office in Richmond. During my final semester in law school, I attended the Cardozo School of Law in New York and worked for New York State Supreme Court Judge Leslie Crocker Snyder.

Robert Hurt attended a law school in New York City? Cardozo School of Law, part of Yeshiva University? Sounds like a New York Lawyer to me!

Robert Hurt's own website claims that he grew up in Chatham. If he gets to claim that he grew up in Chatham, he needs to direct his supporters to stop raising questions of Tom Perriello's origins. He himself should stop indicating that Perriello isn't from around here. It's shameful that Hurt has resorted to these sorts of negative and false attacks. I know that's how Chris LaCivitia likes to play the game, as we saw with the hit job on Robert Hurt. But I have to ask, does Hurt want people looking through his past too?

NRCC Holds Firmly Around Andy Sere

2010-09-08T16:05:00.001-07:00

The NRCC is sticking to their young gun Andy Sere despite the "twittergate" controversy this blog broke last night. Following in his stellar tradition of attacking Rick Boucher for votes missed because his mother died and reminding votes that terrorist acts against Tommy Boy's family doesn't make him a victim, Sere posted the addresses of Perriello campaign staffers despite hiding his own on public disclosure forms.

The petition to ban NRCC's queen spokesperson is just shy of 300 so far. If you haven't already, sign it and encourage your friends, family, neighbors, and anyone with a sense of basic dignity to sign it. So far the NRCC has refused to back down and is defending Andy Sere's actions, prompting calls from the Perriello camp for Robert Hurt to distance himself from Beltway Republicans . . .

Virginia's top political blogger notes that Hurt himself appears to be angry at the NRCC as well:

Legislators from southside close to Robert Hurt have told me that Hurt and his campaign were "furious" with Andy for his tweets and the NRCC for their initial reaction to this story. Hurt has a comfortable lead in this race and Andy's actions "recklessly endangered" that status according to one longtime friend of Hurt's. This friend also told me (and I confirmed with someone close to the campaign) that Robert had an angry reaction to this distraction this morning and directed his campaign to demand Andy apologize. The campaign source also told me that while the @VotePerriello account "started this" by calling a Hurt staffer a carpetbagger- that Andy's and the NRCC response was far disproportionate and noted that "It's the NRCC's job to help us win, not f*** us up and knock us off message".

The problem is that Hurt's been silent on this issue and refusing to respond to media inquiries on the subject. That's not leadership, that's cowardice. The same cowardice that encourages him to duck debates. The same cowardice that encourages him to remain silent and hop on a plan to attend a fundraiser with . . . NRCC Chair Pete Sessions!

Robert Hurt has the opportunity to stand up and show his independence from Beltway Republicans. If he really was angry at the NRCC's actions, he would publicly demand an apology and refuse their help until they fire Andy Sere. What will Robbie do tomorrow? We'll see.

Update: What's Robert Up To?

2010-09-08T08:40:00.000-07:00

The Perriello campaign provides us with an update on what Robert Hurt is up to when he's not debating.

Robert Hurt to Snub 5th District Voters in Favor of Raising Money with Corrupt Outsourcers

September 8, 2010--Ivy, VA--Tomorrow night, the second debate of the 5th district race will take place in Nelson County, and for the second time, Republican candidate Robert Hurt will skip it. Voters of the 5th district learned this morning that Senator Hurt will instead opt to raise money out-of-state with corrupt members of Congress who support job-killing trade deals. The fundraiser is hosted by Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), who was named to CREW's Most Corrupt Members of Congress list for his dealings with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), who has been a major supporter of free-trade deals that have cost Virginia thousands of jobs.

"Robert Hurt is now 0 for 2 on showing up for debates, and he's added insult to injury by instead flying out-of-state to raise money with two of Washington's most corrupt politicians, famous for their kick-backs to lobbyists and their support of job-killing free-trade deals. Robert Hurt doesn't need to get elected to Washington because he's already gone Washington, preferring high-dollar lobbyist fundraisers instead of answering questions from the people he claims he wants to represent,"said Jessica Barba, spokeswoman for the Perriello campaign.

Thursday night's debate, to take place at 7:00 p.m. at Nelson County High School, is hosted by the Nelson County Chamber of Commerce. Tom Perriello and independent conservative candidate Jeff Clark are confirmed to attend.

What's Robert Hurt Hiding?

2010-09-08T05:02:00.000-07:00

Has anyone seen Robert Hurt lately?

Wonder where he is . . . Oh, found him!

But Hurt, coming out of a primary battle, is rebuilding his war chest. On Thursday, he is scheduled to raise money at a luncheon in Dallas with Texas Reps. Pete Sessions, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Jeb Hensarling. Perriello and Clark are to debate in Nelson County the same day.

Hurt has refused to debate Clark, who is very conservative politically. If Hurt skips Thursday's debate, it would be the second time that Perriello and Clark have debated without the Republican nominee.

Robert Hurt would rather raise money with his rich Republican friends than debate the issues here in Virginia. When is he going to actually show up for the job interview?

Catfight in VA05!!

2010-09-07T16:24:00.000-07:00

How do you fight back against a narrative that your campaign is hopeless and you're being cut off from national support?

First, get your Democrat buddies to release a poll showing you basically tied. That's a hell of a lot better than the twenty-points down everyone else is talking about.

Second, beat the shit out of your opponent, Senator Robert Hurt, for being too cozy with lobbyists and big business.

Ouch!

The best the Hurt campaign can come up with is that Perriello is "desperate" because he's the first to run an attack ad. I can't think of a more disingenuous claim. First, it ignores that Perriello was the target of the very first NRCC attack ad back in February . . . of 2009. Perriello has had a constant stream of attacks from the National Republican Party and their allies. He's finally fighting back and the Hurt campaign acts like they are the victim?

In the words of NRCC hack Andy Sere, Robert Hurt isn't the victim, the constituents of the 5th District of Virginia are the victims.

I don't remember Hurt and his supporters claiming that his decision to duck debates during the Republican primary was "desperate." I don't remember them admitting that his failed attempt to fund raise during the General Assembly were "desperate." I'd call his continued failure to hold public forums and debate independent conservative, businessowner, and veteran Jeff Clark as "desperate." But I guess Andy Sere and his new BFF Amanda Henneberg disagree.***

This is politics. All is fair in love, war, and politics. Perriello is attacking Hurt, just like every single other candidate in the history of politics has done. No one's ever been elected on a platform of "I really like my opponent too!"

The big question is will Catherine Amos focus on reality, or just write an article based on the tweets she receives? Does she know that there is more to reporting than just Twitter? For example, she could call up Issac Wood of UVA's Center for Politics (He's on twitter too!) and he'll remind her that Hurt's first TV ad was an attack ad too:

“You definitely see that he’s running against Congress as a whole and Democrats as a whole,” Isaac Wood, a House race analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said. “That was very clear. He spent just a few seconds introducing himself, then pivoted right away to attack the negative things happening in D.C. With voters, that can be effective.”

Now that Perriello is hitting back, the Republicans seem to be feeling the heat. Not only are they trying to whine and complain that Tommy Boy is beating up on Pretty Bob Robert Hurt, they seem to have a sensitive spot for any attacks about being "carpetbaggers." Hm, the campaign of the guy born in New York City, who grew up in New York City for nine years, and graduated from one of the most expensive boarding schools in Northern Virginia is sensitive to being a carpetbagger? Poor Robbie . . .

Tonight, the NRCC's Andy Sere went on a rampage posting the names and addresses of multiple Perriello campaign staffers from out of district. I kid you not. Seriously.

Tom Perriello has already had attacks on his family because of the posting of the address of his brother's home because some idiot Tea Partier thought it was Tom's address. Andy Sere, of course, was sure to clarify that Tom was not, in any way, the victim. Now, Sere is posting addresses of campaign staffers to Twitter. Maybe he'll encourage some of his strapping young friends to pay them and their families a visit?

This is utterly disgusting. Sere needs to go and Hurt should distance himself immediately from the national Republican Party.

***Don't worry, nothing's really happening between Andy and Amanda. Andy doesn't swing that way . . .

Jim Webb Smacks Tom Perriello, Opposes Cap and Trade

2010-09-06T14:21:00.000-07:00

Wow, talk about a rough start to the official campaign season:

The problem I've had with Democrat bloggers complaining about Perriello's reelection chances is that they focus too heavily on the handful of votes where Tommy Boy actually supported the majority of his distraction, such as opposing federal funding of abortion. Or, in the words of one Democrat blogger, sticking his nose in the vaginas of the women of the 5th district. I wonder if maybe Tommy Boy would be ahead in the polls if he were more willing to do that sort of thing, if you know what I mean . . .

The problem with Tom Perriello isn't where he's voted conservative, it's been where he votes liberal. And cap and tax is one of the biggest signs of where Obama, Pelosi, and Perriello want to take us. And where even Democrats like Jim Webb don't want to take us. I guess this is just a sign that the 2010 election season is almost over and Webb's starting to worrying about his own hide in 2012!

Dems are not Cutting Perriello . . .

2010-09-05T09:05:00.000-07:00

It's a trap!

A lot of Virginia bloggers are trumpeting or bemoaning the "fact" that National Democrats are going to cut off Perriello and other "lost causes" or "walking dead." The problem is that they cite a incompetent media that fails to do its homework and lives off of false assumptions. We all remember that the people who majored in "communications" in college were the slackers who couldn't do anything else. Remember that when you're reading an article by professional journalists, like Danville's Catherine Amos.

The list of vulnerable Democrats is based not on an internal statement by the DCCC, but by the journalist's own guess work. We know this as a fact. How? Because it includes Frank Kratovil of Maryland. DCCC Head Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is NOT going to indicate that they are cutting off his fellow Maryland Democrat. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is NOT going to give up on saving Kratovil. End of story.

The same is true of Perriello. Tommy Boy is the White House's favorite Democrat. They are not going to give up on him. The more people talk about Perriello being cut off, the lazier Robert Hurt's already lackluster campaign will become. Believing this crap is dangerous and could cost Hurt the election.

More Dirty Politics from Robert Hurt

2010-09-01T18:08:00.000-07:00

Independence conservative Jeff Clark has some problems with debt in his past. A small business owner, a veteran who served this country, and the father of another service member fighting for our freedoms abroad, Jeff Clark isn't perfect. Unlike Robert Hurt, who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth and has never had to worry about money (until he tried to run for Congress), Clark has had some financial difficulties. Now what's ironic is that this is being brought up as a bad thing. I don't remember Congress passing a multi-billion dollar bailout for Jeff Clark. But I do remember a multi-billion dollar bailout for Wall Street that was supported by the leadership of both the Democrat and Republican Parties, including Hurt's BFF Eric Cantor . . .

I'd rather have a Congressman like Jeff Clark who understands the difficulties facing average Americans than a guy like Robert Hurt who just smiles and pretends to care.

Now I'm all for making sure that due diligence is done in looking into candidates for public office. As public servants, politicians are asking for us to look into their past. They will be yelled at, screamed at, insulted, threatened, and even terrorized. Or they can be like Hurt and avoid public appearances.

What I have a problem with is when dirt diggers and mud slingers hide from the attacks they hurl. We know that reporter Brian McNeill was provided the information on Clark; he didn't do the research himself. While some parts of Clark's record are available through public documents, the fact that private information like his Social Security should worry an average citizen. Do you want some high paid Washington consultant digging through your garbage just to further Robert Hurt's career?

What don't we know about Robert Hurt's Washington DC campaign?

We already know a little bit about the leading campaign consultant Chris LaCivitia and his dirty brand of politics.

And then there's the new Washington hire by career politician Robert Hurt, Amanda Henneberg. Hennenberg was last seen trying to help RINO Charlie Christ convince the people of Florida that he had a conservative record, so I guess she's just the type of person to help out Hurt. I wonder if I can expect a call from her tomorrow morning to complain about my blog post?

And now we're starting to learn more about this Jackson Alvarez Group, the opposition research firm for Robert Hurt. What hand did they play behind the attacks against Feda Morton during the primary? Who is Gary Maloney?

Finally, there's Mark Lloyd, the so-called "Chairman" of the practically dead Lynchburg Tea Party. Lloyd is now going back on the group's earlier stance onn refusing to endorse any candidates in the Virginia 5th race. The Vice-Chair of the organization has resigned and Lloyd himself seems to be more than willing to play the role of lapdog to Robert Hurt. Just like the slew of other Republicans running in the primary, Lloyd talked a good game about being a consistent conservative but is crawling back to the establishment. It's pathetic and just another sign that the Tea Party and independent conservatives Jeff Clark will have a difficult road in toppling the establishment. I wish him the best of luck.

Will Perriello Call for Geithner to be Fired?

2010-08-27T08:51:00.000-07:00

As anyone following Tom Perriello knows, Perriello has not been a fan of much of Obama's economic team. He has campaigned against the Wall Street bailout from the start and opposes almost anything from the Obama administration that has the fingerprints of Goldman Sachs on it. He's an angry populist who wants more money to union thugs, not Wall Street CEOs. Fair is fair I guess. I'd worry about any Wall Street CEO that met Tom Perriello in a dark street. Collateral damage and all . . .

Now, the national media is starting to notice that Perriello wants Treasury Secretary Geithner gone. Yawn, old news! But apparently not. The absurd demand now being made is that Perriello has to "officially" come out for Geithner to be fired, as if constantly saying so in almost every town hall isn't enough. Or better yet, he has to make the call from Washington, where words apparently have more meaning than in Virginia in front of his district.

So here are my demands for Perriello in order to show that he really, really, wants to fire Geithner.

He must call for him to go on a boat.
And he must do it with a goat?
He must make his call in the rain.
And shout for Geithner's fire on a train.

Where else must Tom call for Tim to go?
Maybe in the dark?
Or on a tree?
Maybe in a cart?
We can't let Tom be!

Should he, would he, on a box?
We must make demands with a fox.
Demand he make a speech in the House.
And oppose Geithner with a mouse.
Perriello must oppose Tim here or there.
Perriello must call for Geithner's oust everywhere.

Schilling Come Lately

2010-08-23T07:07:00.000-07:00

Poor little "Shill" Schilling is crying that in an article about Robert Hurt flip flopping on the 14th Amendment, Tommy Boy's position is only quoted through his press secretary and not directly. Somehow the Shill missed that this was the standard modus of operation for Robert Hurt throughout this entire election cycle and that he continues to hide behind his puppet master Chris LaCivita. Even more, the Shill misses that this wasn't a direct quote from Hurt in conversation, but an e-mail. An e-mail that contradicts his in-person statements on the campaign trail!

Hurt’s position on the issue, e-mailed to The Daily Progress on Wednesday, seems to contradict a statement he made about birthright citizenship the following day in Chase City.

At a forum held by the Chase City Chamber of Commerce, a questioner asked Hurt: “The 14th Amendment says that anybody that comes into this country and has a child, that child born in this country is a citizen of the United States. When you go to Walmart or wherever, you see all these immigrants with several children — and they’ve always got another one on the way — you don’t know if they’re legal or illegal. But when they’re born here, that puts the expense on us because they have those rights. Do you think we need to put a limit on the 14th Amendment to stop that?”

According to a video of the exchange posted on YouTube by the Democratic Party of Virginia this weekend, Hurt replied: “I think the first and most direct thing that we have to do is, is we’ve got to address the immigration — we’ve got to stop it at the border. And that’s the problem. We’ve just been allowing it to happen. We wouldn’t be having that discussion if we’d just do our job at the border.

“But I think that’s something we have to revisit,” Hurt continued. “Because I think we would all agree our founders did not envision what we’ve got now.”

Hurt’s campaign did not immediately return a call for comment Saturday about the apparent discrepancy between his statements on the issue.

The Shill is upset that the Daily Progress is providing more coverage of Hurt and his quotes than Perriello's position on the issue. Maybe it's because two contrasting positions are harder to cover than one? The paper covers all four candidates: Tom Perriello, Jeff Clark, Robert Hurt, and the other Robert Hurt. The Shill is a Schilling come lately trying to complain about candidates hiding behind their campaign staff, but in his rush to boost ratings he's going after Perriello instead of being an objective commentator on the race. For shame Shill!

Hurt Backs Down on Anchor Babies

2010-08-21T18:36:00.001-07:00

Sad to say, but we have another flip flop from career politician Robert Hurt. This time it is on the important issue of anchor babies, the offspring of illegal immigrants who are guaranteed American citizenship under the current liberal interpretation of the 14th Amendment. In all issues about immigration I ask myself one simple question: WWVD? What Would Virgil Do?

So it's sad to see Robert Hurt flip flop on the issue of anchor babies and adopt a position rejected by the vast majority of Americans, and most certainly almost all conservatives.

Hurt’s position on the issue, e-mailed to The Daily Progress on Wednesday, seems to contradict a statement he made about birthright citizenship the following day in Chase City.

At a forum held by the Chase City Chamber of Commerce, a questioner asked Hurt: “The 14th Amendment says that anybody that comes into this country and has a child, that child born in this country is a citizen of the United States. When you go to Walmart or wherever, you see all these immigrants with several children — and they’ve always got another one on the way — you don’t know if they’re legal or illegal. But when they’re born here, that puts the expense on us because they have those rights. Do you think we need to put a limit on the 14th Amendment to stop that?”

According to a video of the exchange posted on YouTube by the Democratic Party of Virginia this weekend, Hurt replied: “I think the first and most direct thing that we have to do is, is we’ve got to address the immigration — we’ve got to stop it at the border. And that’s the problem. We’ve just been allowing it to happen. We wouldn’t be having that discussion if we’d just do our job at the border.

“But I think that’s something we have to revisit,” Hurt continued. “Because I think we would all agree our founders did not envision what we’ve got now.”

Hurt’s campaign did not immediately return a call for comment Saturday about the apparent discrepancy between his statements on the issue.

Robert Hurt's biggest opponent isn't Tom Perriello. It's Robert Hurt! One Robert Hurt is open to changing the 14th Amendment, the other isn't. One Robert Hurt wants to debate Jeff Clark, the other doesn't. One Robert Hurt likes the Fair Tax, the other doesn't. One Robert Hurt likes Paul Ryan's plan to privatize Social Security, the other doesn't. How long until we can schedule a debate between the two Robert Hurts?

Debate Debates Continues

2010-08-19T05:34:00.000-07:00

The debate over debates continues, this time from Tom Perriello's camp.

I complained that Hurt was making a mistake to duck the debates, and now we have an ad from Perriello playing up Hurt's refusal to show up to the "job interview." I think this is a great way of phrasing it. Hurt is just another wealthy and well connected kid who expects to get a job or admission into college because of his daddy's connections. He's not willing to work for it.

Sadly, the Hurt campaign responded by accusing Perriello of "going negative." What was Hurt's first web video about, calling out Tom Perriello for not being "one of us." It seems that Hurt has gone negative too, and with good reason. You can't say anything nice about the candidates.

Perhaps Hurt should have attacked Perriello for focusing on distracting gimmicks like debates over debates instead of "going negative." While Perriello was making this ad, he was ignoring the issue of illegal immigration or the spread of Jihadists across the United States. It's time to have a real debate, one about the issues.

Hurtards Ignore Real Issues

2010-08-18T18:34:00.000-07:00

The day after Tom Perriello defends the Mosque at Ground Zero should have been a day of conservative activists across the district picking up on the Congressman's failure to protect the Constitution and republic that he swore a oath to God (not Allah!) to protect. Instead, the Hurtards like Charlottesville's "Shill" Schilling are complaining that Tommy Boy wasn't allowing signs into his town halls. Boo hoo. Cry me a river. I guess that's what all the flash flood warnings were here in Central Virginia, Schilling throwing a temper tantrum.

Wake up conservatives. What do you think voters care more about? Bringing signs at town halls or allowing Jihadists to spread across the United States? Do you think Osama Bin Ladin will let you bring signs into the Mosques?

One Plus One Equals Three in Danville?

2010-08-18T04:34:00.000-07:00

Last night was yet another town hall by our Congressman Tom Perriello, this time in Danville. Catherine Amos provides the coverage in the Danville Register & Bee, but I was also following Robert Benson's live-tweets during the night, such as this observation that it was a pro-Tom Perriello crowd. I was surprised that Amos's article didn't set the same tone as Benson, with references to "angry constituents," being "hit hard" on the questions, and indicating the group applauded heavily following one of the first questions from one of these "angry constituents." But then she wrote about his answers to the Mosque at Ground Zero:

“Let me start by saying, I cannot imagine wanting the government to be able to tell me and my faith community where we can build a house of worship on private property,” Perriello said. “… I have opinions on whether it’s a good idea or not, but … compared to the importance of solving the economy right now… this is a distraction of what our biggest priorities should be.”

The crowd overwhelmingly applauded his answer.

Now I've applauded Robert Hurt for finally trying to force Perriello to stand up to his Muslim overlords. We know that 70% of Americans stand with Hurt against Obama and Perriello. But I could understand Perriello getting applauded for his pro-Jihadist agenda in a pro-Tom Perriello crowd. That's what Benson indicated showed up. But Amos has so many references to "angry constituents" and hard hitting questions I can't wrap my head around what she's trying to convey about the meeting.

I believe that the combination of Benson's observation and the overwhelming applause for Jihadists indicates that this was a strongly pro-Tom Perriello crowd. We know he heavily won Danville in 2008 and is expected to run strong in the city this time as well. There may have been some Hurt supporters giving Perriello hell, but I can't believe they were a large group if being pro-Jihadist was so popular of a position. But Amos seems to be playing up the number of Perriello opponents in the crowd. Why?

At first I was wondering if Amos was just trying to provide balance and give Perriello a hard time. That's great, if she could do it without being so obvious about it. Then I re-read the article and realized that her emphasis on Perriello's opponents attacking him on health care but applauding the Mosque at Ground Zero makes them sound out of touch with Robert Hurt's defense of America's Judeo-Christian values. Is she trying to pull a fast one on the people of Danville and convince them that everyone, even conservatives, are in support of the Obama-Perriello stance against the government defending our freedoms?

Perriello Surging, Hurt Finally Switches to the Issues!

2010-08-17T07:56:00.000-07:00

A new poll from a conservative organization shows Perriello surging against Robert Hurt. He's closed the gap from 23 points to only 6 points. This poll, from American Action Forum, has Hurt narrowly ahead of Perriello 49 to 43. This is very different from the SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks earlier showing Hurt ahead by 58 to 35. Interestingly, the new poll doesn't indicate the level of support for Clark or if they even polled the independent conservative running in the race as well.

Taking into consideration that this is a Republican poll, I suspect that it leans slightly in Hurt's favor. Certainly failing to include Clark is a boon to Hurt's numbers. It's very possible that the candidate are actually tied. Hurt's numbers have collapsed in a very short period of time. Why?

Maybe it's because his campaign has spent more time whining about the time of Perriello's town halls than hosting his own public forums. And I mean public forums, not closed door meetings without any media coverage.

Maybe it's because his campaign has spent more time ducking debates and refusing to debate Jeffrey Clark than addressing the issues.

I've been calling Hurt and his supporters out for their inability to focus on the major issues facing Virginia. I've been told I'm just slinging out crap. Unfortunately, the Hurtards continue to provide more than enough cow shit for Tommy Boy to step in. Recently I've seen claims that the terrorist attack on Perriello's brother was not actually an attack and somehow was done by a rodent. This is disgusting and not true. It has to end. Robert Hurt should be called on to make very clear that he believes that Tom Perriello's brother, like himself, was the target of violent intimidation.

Now that Hurt's numbers are collapsing, he's finally turning to the real issues. He's called on Perriello to oppose the Muslim conquest of New York City and condemn the plans to build a Mosque at Ground Zero. The Democrat President Barack Hussein Obama has defended these plans. I'm glad that Hurt is finally realizing that he shouldn't just sit back and play political games on meaningless issues like town hall timing and debates about debates. He needs to man up and make some noise, just like Virgil did.

Where is Virgil when we need him now?

Robert Hurt should go beyond his demand that Perriello stand up against the Muslim threat in NYC. He should demand that Perriello return all campaign contributions from Muslims. We know that Perriello talks a good talk about being "independent" because he doesn't take money from lobbyists and corporations, while being bought and paid for by unions. But what about Muslims? How much Saudi oil money is being funneled to Hamas, and how much is being funneled to Perriello? Is there a difference?

How Out of Touch Are Hurtards?

2010-08-15T08:36:00.000-07:00

The longer this campaign goes on, the more difficult it is for me to stick to my belief that Robert Hurt is the best way to eliminate Tom Perriello from office. I agree with Jeff Clark on the major issues and I believe that as a veteran and small business owner he has the real world experience our representatives need, unlike the wealthy Robert Hurt who is entirely out of touch with the problems facing working Virginians. But Clark was stabbed in the back by Jim "Judas" McKelvey (I wonder what his 14 pieces of silver will be) and Hurt continues to lock Clark out of major debates. Hurt may win but he's acting like a "sore winner" who is totally insecure in his upcoming victory. Voting for him will leave a bad taste in my mouth I'm not looking forward to.

Hurt's supporters, the Hurtards, are making it even more difficult. Their constant stream of letters to the editor seem like they are all coming from the same playbook of Chris LaCivita, finding minor things to complain about like the timing of town halls. What about the major issues? I guess LaCivita doesn't want to address the major issues. His messaging certainly shows how out of touch he is from reality in Southside. Check out this letter.

Say what you will about Virgil Goode, but he served us very well as a Democrat, an independent and a Republican. I will admit that he wasn’t flashy and did not make a lot of noise, but he stuck to and voted the conservative values of the people of the Fifth District.

Virgil wasn't flashy? Didn't make a lot of noise? Hello?

What universe are you from "Bill Henderson of Danville," assuming that you actually wrote that letter on your own and didn't have it dictated to you by Sean "P. Diddy" Harrison or Chris LaCivitia. Virgil Goode made noise. He took on the powerful liberal machine. And what's why they backed Perriello in 2008. I'm sick and tired of the Hurtards attacking Perriello as a mindless puppet of Pelosi and the Democrats. He's not a pawn, he's at least a rook or a knight on their chessboard. Hurt's campaign needs to stop focusing on Nancy Pelosi and start focusing on the very real danger created by Tommy Boy himself.

Slow News Day in Southside?

2010-08-13T06:57:00.001-07:00

By ducking debates and whining about the schedule of Perriello's town hall schedule, Robert Hurt has raised serious questions about the credibility of his campaign against Tom Perriello. Right now the only thing going for Hurt is that he is, technically, a Republican. That his campaign's complaints about Perriello's Chatham town hall actually made it into the paper shows just how much of a slow news day it must be. In a more honorable society, Catherine Amos would be considering seppuku for the shame she has brought onto all reporters everywhere.

The complaints stem from that fact that in the mythical world of Chatham everyone is working or getting the kids ready for school at 7:30 Monday morning. In Chatham, a land where I think hobbits also exist, there are no senior citizens with nothing to do who might have complained last year that the town halls were too late in the evening for them. In mythical Chatham, everyone has the exact same schedule and no one works odd hours so that a 7:30 morning town hall is more convenient than a 6:00 evening town hall. And in Chatham, the residents are so afraid of driving to the big city Danville, they can't go to the Perriello town hall the next day in the evening!

Whine, whine, whine. Perriello is yet again holding more town halls than anyone else and yet again Hurt is complaining that it isn't enough. Where are Hurt's town halls? Where are his public appearances? I guess Hurt has better things to do than actually campaign for the job he wants. I guess he's just like the rest of Chatham. He's too lazy to campaign, and they are too lazy to drive to Danville.

Robert Hurt is a Coward

2010-08-11T19:46:00.000-07:00

Based on the polling out right now lifelong politician and Southside scion Robert Hurt looks likely to be the next Congressman from the Fifth District of Virginia. Which is entirely fair in the United States of America, the land of the free and the home of the brave. We don't need no stinkin' democracy! Hurt's family has worked very very hard to accumulate wealth, prestige, and influence in order to buy off Southside's establishment to get their boy Robert into Congress. And we know that Robert will always be in debt to both his family and the Beltway political machine that hand selected him to run. So it's a win-win-win situation. A win for Hurt's family. A win for establishment Republicans. And a win for Robert Hurt. What's not to like?

But Robert Hurt might want to ask Tommy Boy to leave some things around the office for when he takes over. You know, anything that would be helpful. A map of the district (since he doesn't go up to Charlottesville much), some fancy pens (pretty!), a spine and the massive pair of balls that Perriello has been hauling around the district in his pick up truck. Because Hurt doesn't have anything to show that he's a man. Are his kids adopted? I don't he has the ability to impregnate an ovulating Mexican trying to conceive an anchor baby with whatever he's working with right now. Maybe too many drugs in college have dulled his male instincts?

Today, Hurt became the first politician ever to back out of the Senior Statesman debate since it started in 1996. Did our dear friend L. F. Payne ever back out? No! Did Virgil ever decided that putting himself up against the jokers the Democrats ran against him was beneath him? No!

Robert Hurt has held every position possible on debates. First he said he would debate Clark. Then he said he would with certain qualifications. Then he said he would never debate Clark. He's backed out of almost every debate imaginable. No since Green Eggs and Ham has someone refused multiple offers in so many ways.

Why is Hurt hiding? He is ahead in the polls. He should have the confidence to go into the debates. Is it that Clark is beneath him? Why is Clark any less of a viable candidate than Ron Ferrin, who Hurt was willing to debate? Is it that including Clark in the debates would elevate him? Who cares? Goode was willing to debate Meredith Richards, who was so far to the left appearing on stage with Goode was the most reasonable thing she had ever done. That certainly elevated her campaign!!

Hurt should include Clark in the debates. Perriello has reached the point that he's willing to debate Hurt one on one if that's the only way Hurt will debate. But expect to see Tommy Boy showing up at every debate he is invited to for the campaign. Why is Hurt allowing Perriello to pick up this free media attention and make Hurt look bad? I can only blame his puppet masters in the Beltway establishment who think that Hurt isn't ready to debate Perriello. Hurt deserves better than this advice. So do the voters of the Fifth District of Virginia. Hurt should stand up to his puppet masters now, or else we'll be electing a coward to Congress.

Virgnia Democrat SURGING To Reelection!!

2010-07-21T16:09:00.000-07:00

A new poll from Survey USA shows that despite the huge swing in public opinion against President Obama and the Democrat agenda one Virginia Democrat is riding a wave of Democrat enthusiasm that may sweep him back into office.

Confused?

I am too.

I had decided to wait on blogging about the recent Survey USA poll of the Virginia 5th until they also released their poll of the Virginia 9th. Two polls are better than one! I'm glad I waited. The results of the VA09 poll seem so messed up it's undercut my initial enthusiasm for the VA05 results.

Look at the numbers behind the poll showing Rick Boucher up 52% to 39% over Morgan Griffith. Survey USA is projecting that 33% of voters will be Democrats, 35% will be Republicans, and 29% Independent. Back in 2006 (Boucher was unopposed in 2008) Survey USA had a poll with 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 25% Independents. This is a shift between the Democrats and Republicans of only five points, despite a huge wave nationally and in Virginia (Governor Bob McDonnell!)

Something isn't right.

This made me curious about VA-05. Here's 2010. Here's 2006. The two are virtually identical!

Now I'd usually say that this should mean that Perriello is even MORE behind Hurt, but I noticed some other funky numbers. I expect black voters to be coming out less than in 2008, but Survey USA is assuming they'll be even smaller as a group than in 2006!

And what about 2008? I think that a lot fewer Democrats will come out in 2010 without Obama around, but Survey USA is predicting a 17 point swing in favor of the Republicans if you look at their 2008 poll versus their 2010 poll! I expect a swing, but that seems absurd!

Something doesn't add up.

I've said before that we can make a few assumptions based on the knowledge that both Hurt and Perriello have polled. If Hurt was ahead by this much in his poll he would have released the data. If he was up by this much he wouldn't be treating Jeff Clark like a jerk and keeping him out of the debate. He'd be working hard but magnanimous in victory.

So I don't think Hurt's own polling agrees with Survey USA.

The fact that Hurt's campaign before this poll was questioning the validity of Survey USA also makes me concerned. I think Survey USA showed some strength in 2009 in polling the Governor's race, but it's a lot easier to approach an entire state with major metropolitan areas that try to pick up on a large sprawling House district with a lot of different communities. That's true of both VA09 and VA05.

Right now, Survey USA is trying to tell us that VA09 will be MORE DEMOCRAT than VA05. Republicans outnumber Democrats in VA09 by two points (35% to 33%). They are ahead of Democrats in VA05 by FIFTEEN POINTS (43% to 27%). Everyone knows that VA09 is the more Republican district. This just seems utterly absurd. I think Survey USA got it wrong in VA09, in favor of Boucher. I think they got it wrong in VA05, in favor of Hurt. Until I see more convincing data I'm going to continue to treat this race as a dead heat.

Show Me the Money!

2010-07-19T16:57:00.000-07:00

Now that the FEC reports are filed, I'm starting to wonder just how expensive this race in Virginia's 5th District will get.

Perriello has an early fundraising advantage. His campaign reported $1.7 million in cash on June 30, with $3,000 in debts. Hurt's campaign had $216,000 in cash and about $85,000 in debts.

When you consider the money Hurt owed to his Beltway consultants he's at about $130,000 cash on hand, compared to Perriello's commanding $1.7 million. I could write a post that rubbed this fact into every the face of every Hurt supporter who claimed that the money would roll in after the primary. I could say that this proved my point that Hurt is having serious financial problems. Or that Hurt will depend heavily on outside groups to "bailout" his campaign. Hell, I could even point out that Hurt's $130,000 on hand is pretty close to Virgil Goode's $111,540.64 on hand--AND HE'S NOT EVEN RUNNING!!

But I'm a better man than that.

More importantly, if you look at Perriello's fundraising pace so far this year and his performance from 2008 I think he could easily reach another $1 million raised before election day. Perriello and Goode personally spent about the same amount in 2008, but Perriello benefited from a significant last minute investment from national Democrats. About $700,000 or so was spent on his behalf in 2008, while Republicans kicked in a minor $100,000 or so for poor Virgil.

The Democrats and their labor allies will throw down big money for Perriello this year. I'll put their commitment at at least another $1 million. With some generous rounding, that puts Perriello at almost $4 million for the election campaign to come. And Hurt . . .

Where will Hurt be?

It's a concerning question for conservatives here in the Fifth.

Breaking! Perriello attacks Hurt as illegal anchor baby

2010-07-19T04:35:00.000-07:00

Wow, I don't see how Hurt can recover from this devastating article that just ran in the Danville Register & Bee. Political reporter Catherine Amos was in a rush to get this out, so it's not posted online yet. I've typed up the print version. It's a must read!

Perriello attacks Hurt as illegal anchor baby

Democrat Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy, attacked his Republican opponent Robert Hurt for being the child of illegal immigrants - but there is confusion as to where exactly Hurt was born.

Perriello's campaign manager, Lise Clavel, said she was told Thursday that Hurt's real biological parents were illegal immigrants from Mexico - a small village in Chiapas to be precise - and they had smuggled across the border into America shortly before Hurt's mother gave birth. Being born on American soil is sufficient for citizenship under the 14th Amendment, but opponents of illegal immigration propose changing this birthright citizenship. Lise said she was told Hurt was an illegal anchor baby by "anonymous sources," which led Perriello to release the following statement.

"It's disappointing that during these tough times, Robert Hurt would take a job away from a real native born American. The 5th District needs Americans running for office, not the child of illegal immigrants from Mexico."

Rather than praising his opposition to illegal immigrants taking jobs from American politicians, Danville Tea Party vice chairman, Darriel Burnett, saw Perriello's attack as pandering to 5th District conservatives.

"It's all too convenient that his opponent happens to be the love child of illegal immigrants," Burnett said. "If we were really opposed to illegal immigrant, he would have voted against the tax bill -- cap and trade -- and he would have voted against the stimulus. Why did Perriello allow an anchor baby to even be his opponent? He should have stopped this from happening. His failure to prevent Hurt from running shows why Perriello has to be defeated--by Hurt. As far as I'm concerned, it's a little too late, and a little too little."

However, according to the online resource "The Google," Hurt's biography does not mention his Mexican heritage. Hurt, who now lives in Pittsylvania County, is the father of three.

Sean "P. Diddy" Harrison, Hurt's campaign manager, said Hurt had never been the child of illegal immigrants to Mexico, but that the candidate's location of birth was deliberately confusing.

"Talk about cynical political stunts," Harrison said in a statement. "Tom Perriello is clearly misrepresenting the situation. There is only one candidate in this race who has consistently been accused of being from outside of the district: Tom Perriello. Even though he was born and raised in the district, we're going to send him back to New York this November. Which is actually where Robert was born. But that's not the point."

Harrison added that he had to finish the e-mail before Chris LaCivita found out he was sending out a statement without his permission.

Hurt's parents, who would know if they are illegal immigrants from Chiapas, could not be reached for comment Thursday.

Stay tuned for how this will shake up the campaign . . .

Is Catherine Amos a Secret Agent for Perriello?

2010-07-16T04:25:00.000-07:00

I have been surprised with the level of coverage for the election in Virginia's 5th District this year, especially the low regard for both democracy and its readers that the Danville Register & Bee has been showing. The most recent article from their new reporter Catherine Amos is making me question if Amos, and perhaps the entire Danville Register & Bee paper, are actually secret agents pushing to get Perriello reelected. As we all know, Perriello was swept into office in 2008 through a combination of factors. But one that cannot be forgotten is the endorsement by the Register & Bee and their biased coverage of the election. I had thought that the paper was trying to make amends with their failure to fact check and giving Robert Hurt the benefit of the doubt throughout the primary. But now I'm worried that they are handling this election so badly they are actually trying to get Perriello reelected.

Today's debate about the debates article from Catherine Amos has the headline "Hurt attacks Perriello for declining one-on-one debate." With such a clear statement in the headline, I expected the article to justify the claim that Perriello has declined the one-on-one debate. Instead, the article notes that Perriello's campaign claims they have not declined the debate and the one objective source of information, Lynchburg Regional Chamber of Commerce President Rex Hammond, was not available for comment.

Will the Danville Register & Bee be publishing these headlines?

"Hurt attacks Perriello for being secret Muslim terrorist."

"Hurt attacks Perriello for being a Martian lawyer."

I guess Amos never learned at journalism school that her job is to be objective and neutral in these fights, trying to find the truth to hold politicians accountable. A headline like today's imparts on the reading the sense that Hurt is right and that Perriello has declined the debate. The truth, that there is disagreement between the camps, isn't mentioned until later in the story. Why couldn't Amos come up with "Hurt claims Perriello is ducking debates" or something like that?

At first I was going to blame this on lazy reporting, which it clearly is. Amos was in such a rush to come up with a story for Friday she ran with something she hadn't fully checked out. Would it have killed her to wait a few days to verify from Hammond the truth? I don't think so, but I guess there's so little to report about in Danville the paper was putting pressure on her to come up with a story--fast! Fill that space!

But then I also realized that so far Amos has been focusing on the debate debate between the two candidates. She can truthfully say that she's been covering the election and the battles between the two candidates. But she's ignored, for over a week now, the demand from Robert Hurt that Tom Perriello announce his position on President Obama's attempt to nullify Arizona's anti-illegal immigrant laws. Amos is silent on a real, substantive issue of disagreement between the two candidates. Robert Hurt, like Virgil Goode, believes that we need to end illegal immigration and take back the jobs that immigrants have stolen from Americans. Tom Perriello welcomes them with open arms. It's that simple.

The Register & Bee has already covered that many farms in the area depend on immigrant labor instead of Americans. I want to know why these farmers are hiring immigrants instead of Americans despite the high unemployment across Southside. Perriello is fighting for cheap labor for farmers that puts Americans out of work. I know that Goode supports an immigration moratorium, which would end these programs like H2A that bring in cheap immigrant labor to take jobs away from Americans. I'm sure Robert Hurt does as well. The Register & Bee is silent on this issue because the don't want to hurt Perriello's reelection. For shame!

I also want to know where Jeff Clark, the "conservative" candidate in this race, stands on ending immigration. If Hurt is going to win he is going to need to show that he's as conservative, if not more conservative, than Clark. Does Clark support Goode's immigration moratorium? Why hasn't Amos asked these questions, instead of focusing on this silly debate debate?

Yes, Robert Hurt Knows What He's Doing . . .

2010-07-14T03:27:00.000-07:00

Through my use of Google Alerts I've been paying close attention to the on going "stealth campaign" of the Robert Hurt/Chris LaCivita campaign. Although Perriello has been actively campaigning, raising money, and touring the district, Hurt has also produced a steady stream of letters to the editor popping up across the 5th and has started to wage a campaign against Jeff Clark. Today, I noticed the concern of some Republicans that Hurt's decision to highlight the recent Arizona immigration law may backfire on him.

I can talk about this debate from my knowledge of history and the Scots-Irish experience in Virginia, but it mainly comes down to economics. There are a lot of tobacco farmers in Virginia that are coming under intense pricing pressure and have become reliant on immigrant labor in the past few years. I'm also seeing more farmers growing burley tobacco which brings a higher profit, but is more labor intensive even for innovative farmers in Southside Virginia.

There has also been a sharp decline in native born young people willing to do this work in the Southside region of Virginia. The economic pressure on farmers can make many change their vote right after harvest.

This could have a huge blowback effect in November. Just like it was for Virgil Goode in 2008. I was really hoping that my party would come to its senses on this issue in 2010.

Mike wants to see a Republican stand up to call for comprehensive immigration reform, like libertarian Jeff Flake of Arizona is advocating. I'll remind him that we all know what that is code for: amnesty. Perriello ran on amnesty in 2008 and still supports comprehensive immigration reform--which is just another way of saying amnesty. There is one and only one solution to this crisis, which is to treat this with the same threat and seriousness as the War on Terror or the War on Drugs. We need to turn the Mexican border into our version of the Berlin Wall to keep everyone out. Virgil Goode knows this and it seems that Robert Hurt is finally on board. This is the best move made by the Hurt campaign so far. They know exactly what to do!

Will Register & Bee Call for Ending Unemployment Benefits for Danville?

2010-07-06T09:32:00.000-07:00

Just a few days ago the Danville Register & Bee wrote a selfish editorial outlining their stance on extending unemployment benefits during the Obama-recession: we want ours, don't give it to anyone else! The editorial board drew a line in the sand and boldly said that some localities that were struggling deserved extended unemployment benefits, but not localities where the economy has started to rebound.

With all we know about labor markets in this country, can’t we come up with a solution that helps people where they need help — and pushes them off the dole when their local economy is strong support them?

Like Robert Hurt, my heart goes out to those unemployed workers who can't find a job because of the failures of President Obama and the Democrat Congress. It's not fair to punish them for the job-destroying agenda coming out of Washington. But as a good conservative I also oppose welfare programs that discourage workers from finding a job. That's why I've decided to agree with the Register & Bee. Once a locality shows job growth their unemployment benefits should be cut.

So will the Register & Bee now join me in calling for unemployment benefits to be cut for Danville and Pittsylvania?

Of the twenty-two localities in the great 5th District of Virginia, all but FIVE have higher unemployment rates than when President Obama was sworn into office in January, 2009. Two of the exceptions are Danville and Pittsylvania. That's right. The area that the Register & Bee covers is at lower unemployment rate than when Obama started destroying our economy with taxes and debt. This just shows how strong and resilient the hard working folks in Danville are. Since they have a recovering economy, shouldn't the Register & Bee do the right thing and call for kicking off the dole the lazy bums who refuse to go out and get a job?

Trying to Offend More People

2010-07-04T11:39:00.000-07:00

Recently, I've been criticized for doing too much to defend Perriello and coming across as a Perriello-Pelosi apologist. Well, my goal in this post is to try to insult and offend as many people as possible. I'm an apologist for no one!!

A reoccurring problem in commentaries on the general election in Virginia's 5th District is that the fine citizens of the district aren't used to competitive House elections and are quick to fall for faulty logic and fallacies. That's understandable, there's a Republican candidate with a slick Beltway campaign team trying to use smoke and mirrors to hide from the truth, a generally incompetent and failing media unable to provide facts to keep the debate grounded in reality, and a hard working yet unapologetic liberal Democrat that's the biggest threat the GOP in this district has ever seen. The combination has produced a pile of horse manure rather than actual commentary that could help the average citizen find the truth.

Let's start off with the "debate over debates." I've already covered how Hurt's incompetent campaign let go unchallenged for days Hurt's original statement that he was "absolutely" open to including Jeffrey Clark in the debates. Most of the newspapers in the district (Lynchburg, Charlottesville) have stepped up to state the obvious: Clark is a candidate and should be included in the debate. But no one has brought up yet the hypocrisy of Hurt's handlers. Just see what they are doing in the 2nd District:

Rigell, who is seeking Virginia’s 2nd District seat, had been invited to speak at Freedom Fest, an event that is being produced by a Norfolk-area conservative radio station. But Rigell consultant Chris LaCivita told POLITICO Sunday that the campaign had decided against an onstage appearance out of caution for Federal Election Commission laws.

LaCivita explained that independent candidate Kenny Golden had not been offered equal time at the event. That Rigell’s car dealership, Freedom Ford, is a sponsor of the Palin event was also a concern, said LaCivita. “We like to follow the advice of campaign lawyers,” he said.

In VA-05, LaCivita is arguing that Hurt shouldn't have to debate Jeffrey Clark. In VA-02, LaCivita is arguing that it would be improper for Rigell to appear at an event that didn't also include Kenny Golden, the independent. Ironically, Tommy's BFF Glenn Nye is running scared in his reelection and doing everything possible to dodge debates and other public events. In fact, given his strange libertarian/populist views, I think Kenny Golden would be a better candidate for liberals to support than Glenn Nye himself. Or maybe the liberals will just write in Tom Perriello. Anyone but Nye!!

The fact that there are many elections this year should help provide prospective in the spin provided the politicians and their handlers. Following Glenn Nye's flip-flopping, waffling, and cowardice has provided me with the perspective to respect Tom Perriello as a hard working politician . . . who's agenda is to destroy America. I firmly believe Glenn Nye also wants to destroy America, but I just can't respect a man who doesn't work hard for what he believes in.

This is a classic example of Glenn Nye's constituent services:

My recent post on Perriello Derangement Syndrome was criticized by those who couldn't understand the fact that I can see Perriello for what he is, a liberal who would turn America into a European style welfare state that cowers in the face of Islamo-terrorists and China, while respecting him as an individual and even appreciating the issues where we agree.

Watching other elections, especially Glenn Nye's desperate attempt to stay in power, would be a good cure for Perriello Derangement Syndrome. So when Perriello holds town hall after town hall and tries to talk to people, Hurtards would realize that he's going above and beyond anything that Virgil Goode ever did and he's setting an example that almost no other member of Congress has lived up to. When Perriello votes with the liberal agenda of Obama and Pelosi, Hurtards would realize that he campaigned as a liberal Democrat in 2008 and still won! He's just doing what he was elected to do, which is more than I can say about Glenn Nye.

The problem with Hurtards is they still think that Perriello is just a young New York carpet bagger who is a Pelosi lap dog. They need to read my post explaining that Perriello is a Manchurian candidate with his own independent power base. Nancy Pelosi did not recruit Perriello to run and she did almost nothing to help his campaign. Perriello was recruited and funded by George Soros and his Shadow Party of liberal extremists united by one goal: weakening America's military might and strength in the world.

Pelosi has no control over Perriello. Perriello is his own rouge agent, his own terrorist cell, entirely independent of Pelosi. Which is what makes him so dangerous. He's going to do whatever he thinks is right, not what Pelosi tells him to do. Yeah, Perriello and Pelosi are both liberal extremists trying to destroy America. But that doesn't mean Pelosi calls the shots. They are just two extremists drinking the same Kool Aid.

This means that Perriello can, at times, side with conservatives and it's not because Pelosi "let him." It's because as a lone wolf he's got some independent views of his own. In the big picture he supports the agenda of George Soros, but on some day to day issues like guns and abortion he's more conservative. And he's genuinely more conservative. Just this week he voted for auditing the Federal Reserve, against Wall Street regulations, and against the Democrat budget. I think he did this because he's more conservative on a host of issues not directly tied to the agenda of weakening America's military might. During the same week he also voted for retreat from Afghanistan. He's also voted to allow the radical homosexual agenda infiltrate our military. That's good news for Glenn Nye, he'll have a career opening after his defeat this fall.

Perriello isn't the only Manchurian candidate in Congress right now. I recently read this old profile of openly homosexual Congressman Jared Polis of Colorado. Polis is independently wealthy and hell-bent on destroying America's traditional values. He's bought off most of Colorado's politicians with his generous contributions and finally purchased a Congressional seal. He's not your traditional Democrat, all he cares about is advancing his radical agenda of destroying American families. So he actually has some conservative views on education and unions! Perriello is the same way. He's focused on foreign policy issues that the Fifth District has a hard time following. But it's where he is most dangerous.

Why hasn't Perriello's radical vision for a world dominated by the European Union and China received more attention in this race? I blame Hurt's campaign, but I can also see this being an issue closer to the election. But I also blame a media in the district. Did you know that Perriello voted for retreat in Afghanistan this week? You wouldn't if you only read the various Media General News services in the district.

Declining circulation is hitting the newspaper hard nationally, but particularly hard in rural Virginia. People have to be fired and more and more newspapers are trying to cover things with fewer, and less qualified, reporters. I've been tracking just how often the newspapers publish erroneous letters to the editor and have consistently found examples. Just this week the Danville Register and Bee published a letter claiming that Perriello had voted against extending the Bush tax cuts, despite the fact that no such vote exists.

I've also noticed the growing hypocrisy of the Danville paper in their coverage of the Tea Party. Catherine Amos seems to be phoning in her work at the paper. I guess she's trying to get the hell out of Danville as soon as possible, like the last reporter to cover Perriello. In her recent article on Perriello's vote on Wall Street regulations she quoted both Hurt's campaign and the Danville Tea Party, two groups opposed to Perriello in the story. Why is the Danville paper covering the local Tea Party in stories about the election, while claiming that the independent candidate shouldn't be heard in a debate? The paper lavished attention on the Tea Party during the primary. Did anyone complain when Ron Ferrin was included in the debates?

So I've attached Perriello, Hurt, Hurtards, and the media. Is everyone happy now that I'm just angry at everyone? Good!

Memo to Hurtards: Please STOP!

2010-07-01T18:53:00.000-07:00

Back in 2007 and 2008, a blogger had to be pretty brave to say anything about Ron Paul, especially anything negative. Just a reference to the long-shot Presidential candidate could bring hordes of his loving, adoring zombie fans to your comments. Insult him and you risked a flame war of attacks. We saw the same thing happen with the "Deaniacs" in 2004. And don't get me started on the messiah-like worship of Obama by some of his supporters.

In 2010 there's a new zombie out there online. The Hurtard.

The Hurtard seems to be your normal run of the mill Republican, but he suffers from what is known as PDS or Perriello Derangement Syndrome. At the mere mention of Tom Perriello, the Hurtard goes into a fit of rage full of spasms, convulsions, and seizures. It's not a pretty sight. The Hurtard cannot accept at face value anything that Perriello does. They are also driven by a hunger for brains, which they consume constantly in hopes that they'll replace the brain they seem to have lost.

Here's some examples of how this plays out.

Scenario 1- SOCIALIST!

Action- Tom Perriello votes in a way the Hurtard doesn't like.
Result- Hurtard accuses Perriello of being a socialist, because anyone who disagrees with the Hurtard is a socialist. Also, the Hurtard will probably try to kill Perriello and/or his family. Because the Hurtard can't tell the difference. (See entry "Coleman, Nigel")

Scenario 2- LIE.

Action- Tom Perriello votes in a way that the Hurtard agrees with.
Result- Hurtard lies and claims that Perriello voted the other way, because when Tucker Watkins has been accusing him of being a secret New York lawyer for two years it doesn't matter what the truth is. (See entry "2008 Campaign Meltdown")

Scenario 3- HE LIES!

Action- Tom Perriello votes in a way that the Hurtard agrees with.
Result- Accuse him of "election year" politics, regardless of the fact that he's taken several high profile votes already. Because you can never, ever praise Perriello. (See entry "Harrison, Sean 'Puffy'")

In the last few months, I've had to correct Hurtards several times about Perriello's voting record, ranging from guns to Puerto Rico to Wall Street regulations. Just this week I had Hurtards claiming Perriello had voted for the Wall Street regulations bill. And in the local media, the Hurtards were forced to accept reality and come up with reasons to criticize Perriello despite his good vote.

Rather than praising his support, Danville Tea Party vice chairman, Darriel Burnett, saw Perriello’s vote as pandering to 5th District conservatives before he faces GOP challenger state Sen. Robert Hurt in November.

“He’s doing these things to garner favor from the conservatives,” Burnett said. “If he was concerned, he would have voted against the tax bill — cap and trade — and he would have voted against the stimulus. As far as I’m concerned, it’s a little too late, and a little too little.”

Hurt’s campaign manager, Sean Harrison, said Hurt would have voted the same way Perriello did.

“It’s clear however,” Harrison said, “that Tom Perriello is in the process of having an election year conversion — but occasional ‘bouts’ of common sense can’t distract from his liberal record.”

So let's get this straight. The Danville Tea Party won't praise Perriello on a signature vote and cause for Ron Paul and his efforts to audit the Federal Reserve, because they think he's just pandering to conservatives. And they try to link it, somehow, to cap and tax and the stimulus.

Perriello: I'm hungry, do you want to order Chinese food?

Hurtard: If you were really hungry, you wouldn't have gotten your shirt dirty!

Perriello: What?

Hurtard: BRAINS!

It makes about as much sense.

And Hurt's campaign manager accused Perriello of an election year conversion despite the fact that Perriello first cosponsored Ron Paul's audit the Fed legislation last year and voted against the Wall Street regulations last year as well. Perriello has been consistent on this issue from the start, something the Hurtards should give him credit for.

Here's a suggestion for the Hurtards. You don't have to attack Perriello on every vote. It makes you look silly. Attack him on the votes you disagree with him on, but do so reasonably and with respect. And if he votes the way you like, just move on.

Ron Paul's Democratic Allies

2010-07-01T05:08:00.000-07:00

Last night, the House of Representatives defeated an attempt by the Republicans to add Congressman Ron Paul's "Audit the Fed" bill to the Wall Street "reform" bill that was being debated. All of the Republicans united in this valiant but failed effort. Twenty-three Democrats also joined the effort, just short of two dozen. I'm listing all of these Democrats as I think they deserve special praise from Tea Partiers everywhere. I am an independent conservative and don't agree with Republicans all of the time, so I certainly don't agree with Democrats most of the time. But I am able to recognize an ally when I see one.

Boucher (Virginia)
Carney (Pennsylvania)
Childers (Mississippi)
Critz (Pennsylvania)
Edwards (Texas)
Giffords (Arizona)
Grayson (Florida)
Hodes (New Hampshire)
Kirkpatrick (Arizona)
Kratovil (Maryland)
Lipinski (Illinois)
Markey (Colorado)
McIntyre (North Carolina)
McNerney (California)
Minnick (Idaho)
Mitchell (Arizona)
Nye (Virginia)
Perriello (Virginia)
Ross (Arkansas)
Skelton (Missouri)
Space (Ohio)
Teague (New Mexico)
Titus (Nevada)

Thanks for your help guys (and gals)! We'll get them next time.

Tommy Gets Down and Dirty

2010-06-30T18:12:00.000-07:00

The first TV ad of the general election in Virginia's 5th:

Rumor has it that there's an unedited version that shows more of Tommy getting down and dirty. It includes money shots of him taking some hard cash from George Soros and Charlie Rangel, and working up a sweat doing some dirty work with fellow Virginia Congressman Glenn Nye. A sneak peak of the ad will be showing at the North Theatre in Danville this weekend.

Another Day, Another Victory for Gun Rights, NRA, and Perriello

2010-06-29T05:08:00.001-07:00

Last week, the NRA won a crucial exemption for itself and other large grassroots organization from a new campaign disclosure bill that passed the House of Representatives. A lot of liberals were upset because they hate the NRA and gun rights to their very core. Tom Perriello, who's been perfect on gun rights so far in Congress, came out strong in defense of the NRA.

Another day, and another victory for gun rights and the NRA. The Supreme Court has struck down some absurd gun control laws in Chicago that banned the ownership of handguns. And again, we find Perriello applauding the victory.

I questioned Robert Hurt's use of his NRA rating throughout the primary. I am still confused as to why he continues to push the issue. First, it's stupid to use it as a defense against the charge of raising taxes . . .

Tea Partier: Robert Hurt raised my taxes! I don't like him!

Hurtard: But Hurt like guns!

Tea Partier: I didn't complain about his stance on guns, I complained about taxes!

Hurtard: Guns! Abortion! Marriage! Conservative! La la la la la I'm not listening!

Tea Partier: Taxes Taxes Taxes Taxes!!! Why aren't you listening?!

That's pretty much the Republican primary this year.

Now the Hurtards are focusing on gun rights again, against Perriello. But again it's non-starter . . .

Hurtard: Vote for Robert! He likes guns!

Charlottesville Liberal: So does Tommy . . . grumble grumble

Hurtard: I'm still not listening because I cannot acknowledge that Perriello isn't as liberal as Tucker has told me!

If that's the general election I may move.

Hurt spent the primary convincing people that his A rating from the NRA meant he was conservative. He's now moving to the general election where Perriello will get the NRA endorsement. Hurt's primary logic would argue that this makes Perriello conservative. Hurt now has to explain how being conservative is more than just checking off boxes.

Governor McDonnell ran on a platform of positive, forward-thinking conservative proposals like privatizing the ABC stories and offshore drilling. Deeds ran against McDonnell and lost. Kilgore ran against Kaine and lost. Kerry ran against Bush and lost. Run against someone and people know what you're against, but not what you're for. Candidates that run on principles have a better chance at victory. Now is the time for Hurt to tell us what he is for.

Doublethink in Politics

2010-06-24T04:22:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, the Charlottesville Daily Progress posted a letter to the editor online criticizing independent candidate Jeffrey Clark. That's all well and good, but the letter started off with:

Congressional candidate Jeffery Clark and his campaign strategist Chris LaCivita are either absurdly uninformed or confirmed egomaniacs, or both. Or maybe just incredibly naive.

There's a clear problem here. Chris LaCivita isn't Clark's campaign strategist. He's Hurt's. This person, a Hurt supporter who is opposed to Clark, is so stupid he doesn't even know that LaCivita is the strategist for his guy, not Clark! Walter F. Johnson of Albemarle County, #FAIL!

But the problem is that the Daily Progress published the letter anyway. This is at least the second time so far this year that the Daily Progress has published a letter that was either critical of Perriello or Clark that didn't get its facts straights. A few months ago they published a letter claiming that the health care bill exempted members and their staff (it doesn't!) and was passed using the "deeming" method (it wasn't in the end!).

This isn't just picking on the Daily Progress. The Danville Register & Bee has had problems with reality too, such as claiming that Perriello would win easily if Goode ran as a third party candidate this year despite a poll showing him tied with Perriello even if Hurt was still in the race.

Why can't these Media General newspapers show even a basic level of competence?

The Daily Progress has corrected the letter to the editor online, but it didn't post a disclaimer or correction. And it begs the question as to who is checking these letters in the first place.

Just a few days ago, Bruce at Southside Central said that Robert Hurt's campaign "immediately" backtracked from Hurt's statement that he would debate Clark. That was entirely wrong and, after I noted reality, Bruce corrected himself and published an explanation. He was wrong, but after being corrected he not only fixed the mistake but did so in a way that kept public the fact that he was originally wrong. Good man!

The problem seems to be that these "mainstream" newspapers don't want to admit that they were wrong. They are like minions in 1984 going back to "correct" the past with no admission that an error was made.

This Orwellian approach to politics is being replicated by many Hurt supporters online. For example, I notice that Garrett Watson is angry that Jeffrey Clark supports a federal amendment to ban gay marriage. That's a fine position to take, but back in 2008 Virgil Goode attacked Perriello for supporting gay marriage because Perriello opposes a federal amendment for the very same reasons Garrett outlined! Will Garrett bash Hurt when the coming attacks on Perriello's stance on gay marriage hit?

Elsewhere, a Hurt supporter has been claiming that Hurt polls very well against Perriello and we know Perriello is in trouble because he hasn't released a poll he conducted a few weeks back. That's a fine claim to make, but we also know that Hurt conducted a poll a few weeks back too! Hurt has the same polling firm as Rigell in the 2nd, where Rigell is showing a commanding lead against Glenn Nye. Why hasn't Hurt released his poll? How far behind is Hurt?

It's obvious that Perriello should be polling under 50%, which is a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent. No matter how far ahead of Hurt he won't release a poll showing him under 50%. But Hurt should be willing to release any poll that shows him tied or ahead of Perriello. He could even use the margin of error to argue that he's tied even if he's behind a little bit. My only conclusion is that Hurt's own polling shows him significantly behind Perriello. That's just a fact and any Hurt supporter who claims otherwise is full of hot air.

UVA's Center for Politics Calls VA05 For Jeffrey Clark!!

2010-06-20T09:52:00.000-07:00

Big news in the race between Tom Perriello, Robert Hurt, and Jeffrey Clark in Virginia's 5th District:

Isaac Wood, a House race analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, is skeptical of Clark’s candidacy and doubts it will be a significant factor in November.

“After Perriello’s victory by the slimmest of margins in 2008, Republicans are rightly wary of anything which could cost them even a percentage point or two,” Wood said. “Jeff Clark certainly fits into that category, but his opportunity to play a large role in the general election has all but vanished. Without the endorsement of a single defeated GOP candidate or Tea Party group, it is tough to see where he will find the support and money he needs to mount a true campaign.”

Given how badly Larry Sabato's Center for Politics blew the VA-05 race in 2008, totally writing off Tom Perriello despite his growing challenge to Virgil Goode, I think this prediction is enough to call the election for Jeffrey Clark!

What is Robert Hurt Afraid Of?

2010-06-19T07:30:00.001-07:00

The Perriello campaign lays the smackdown against Robert Hurt and his refusal to talk to Tea Party members and other independent voices:

Perriello’s campaign manager, Lise Clavel, said Friday that it is “pitiful” Hurt is unwilling to face Clark in a debate.

“Sen. Hurt could not get the majority support of his own party and now wants to silence independent voices that reflect many in this district, including many views of the Tea Party,” Clavel said. “Tom Perriello faced hundreds of Tea Party constituents during his 21 town hall meetings last summer. If Sen. Hurt wants this job so badly, why is he afraid to face just one?”

Tom Perriello isn't afraid to debate Robert Hurt and Jeffrey Clark together. Tom Perriello isn't afraid to spend hundreds of hours listening to constituents. Tom Perriello isn't afraid to meet one on one with Tea Party groups. Tom Perriello isn't afraid of going onto conservative radio to defend his views.

What is Robert Hurt afraid of?

Robert Hurt is afraid of debates and, after ducking several during the Republican primary, is now trying to avoid any debates during the general election.

Robert Hurt is afraid of talking to journalists without Chris LaCivita writing the press releases.

I think the next step for the Perriello campaign is to propose a compromise. LaCivita can stand in for Hurt and debate Clark and Perriello.

How Stupid is Robert Hurt??!

2010-06-18T16:00:00.000-07:00

Robert Hurt (Or is it campaign manager Sean Harrison?) continues to run a half-ass campaign in which the only hope he has is that Chris LaCivita locks him up in a cave for the next few months. LaCivita must have been on vacation over the last week and only returned to check his e-mails today. On Sunday, the Charlottesville Daily Progress reported that Robert Hurt, while being directly interviewed by Brian McNeil, said that he would "absolutely" be willing to debate both Tom Perriello and Jeffrey Clark during the campaign.

Monday passed.

Tuesday passed.

On Wednesday, Jeffrey Clark was certified as a candidate on the ballot. Robert Hurt's campaign still had done nothing to clarify that Hurt's definition of "absolutely" depends on the meaning of the word "is."

Tom Perriello looked at the situation and did the logical thing. Jeffrey Clark had been certified on the ballot. Robert Hurt had said he would "absolutely" debate Clark and Perriello. So Perriello sent out a press release saying he would also debate both of the challengers.

This was a big move by Perriello as it ensures that he will be put out there to face off against TWO challengers. It also would elevate Robert Hurt's profile in the district, as he is woefully underfunded against Perriello's war machine.

Thursday passed.

Suddenly, on Friday, Robert Hurt sent out an e-mail. Well, actually, LaCivita returned from his vacation and bitch slapped Sean Harrison for being an incompetent little punk. An e-mail was quickly put together that blames all of this on Tom Perriello!!

Yes, seriously. Hurt's campaign is trying to blame Perriello for the fact that they left virtually unchallenged for a week the claim by Brian McNeil that Hurt had agreed to debates with Clark and Perriello.

On top of that, they are trying to weasel their way out of the fact that Hurt was specifically asked about debates with both Clark and Perriello and, after trying to duck the question, told McNeil "absolutely" when pushed a second time.

If Hurt was confused by McNeil's question, no wonder he was so confused he voted for the largest tax increase in Virginia's history!

Hurt looks like a total idiot after this episode.

His campaign left unchallenged the Charlottesville Daily Progress for several days.

If he had been misquoted, Sean Harrison should have called Brian McNeil the same day to demand a correction.

This campaign is a total joke right now.

Oh, and also this week, Perriello inched closer to the coveted NRA endorsement in the 5th District.

Drip . . . Drip . . . Drip . . .

WHAT HAPPENED TO ANDY SERE?!?!

2010-06-14T17:22:00.000-07:00

I was re-reading this story of the DCCC pointing out how divergent Robert Hurt's views are from the rest of the late 5th District Republican primary field and noticed this quote:

But National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain points out that Hurt's primary opponents -- as well as the former GOP congressman Perriello defeated in '08, Virgil Goode -- are now backing Hurt.

Spain responds: “This is clearly Tom Perriello’s and the Democrats’ final card they have left to play. After voting for the failed stimulus, job-killing cap-and-trade legislation, and a government takeover, Perriello’s political obituary has already written itself: He was a congressman who was more interested in representing President Obama’s and Speaker Pelosi’s values than those of his Virginia constituents.”

WHO THE HELL IS KEN SPAIN AND WHAT DID HE DO WITH ANDY SERE!!

Were was Andy Sere? Why wasn't he quoted in the story? Was Andy Sere on vacation with his shirtless friends up in the mountains? I NEED TO KNOW!

The Truth HURTS

2010-06-11T08:47:00.000-07:00

Anyone who is now getting in line behind Robert Hurt despite their past statements criticizing his votes for higher taxes and lackluster record as a career politician have to be questioned for their honor and integrity.

I Hope McKelvey is a man of his Word!

2010-06-10T16:07:00.000-07:00

Good News for Liberty!

2010-06-10T16:02:00.000-07:00

Jim McKelvey has formed a political action committee to help return citizen-legislators to office and restore our Republic. Let's cast out the career politicians! Here is his press release:

Today I'm announcing that I am filing the necessary paperwork for the formation of a Political Action Committee. The name of our PAC is the "Take Our Country Back PAC".

The purpose of this PAC is to seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia. Our PAC will be seeking to find candidates who have never run for public office before, but who share our conservative values and desire to serve our country in its time of need. Also, this Political Action Committee will urge lawmakers to sponsor and support legislation that I proposed during my campaign

During my time on the campaign trail, I had the opportunity to meet so many people who, like me, love their country but also fear the direction the government has taken it. There are so many wonderful Virginians who possess the necessary passion and ability to lead us, if we would just give them the chance. I'm establishing this PAC so they will have the opportunity to step forward and heed the call of service for our state and nation at the time when we need them the most. The purpose of this PAC is not to support career politicians, but rather it shall be the platform for everyday Americans to become our next leaders at every level of government.

Today, I funded the PAC with my own money, in order to plant the seed that will grow "citizen-legislators" within our society who will return our Republic back into the hands of the people.

I invite every Virginian who believes, like I do, in fiscal responsibility, the sanctity of human life, traditional family values, limited government, preserving and protecting our second amendment rights and returning to the principles of our Founding Fathers, of government of "By the people, For the people," to join me in the cause to Take Our Country Back from those career politicians who have corrupted our Founder's vision. The future of our children and our nation depend upon us stepping forward and making a difference so that we can return our nation to its position in the world as the beacon of freedom, the champion of liberty and the defender of the American Dream.

Go Jim!

What’s Next?

2010-06-09T17:12:00.000-07:00

I couldn't have said it better myself:

So what is next. The prevailing wisdom is to “get behind the winner, so we can beat Perriello”. If by “get behind” they mean vote against Perriello then that is what most people will do. But you don’t win hard races with that tactic. Robert Hurt needs to give people reasons to get excited about him and to vote FOR him, not against the other guy.The concern I and others have, is that its going to be really hard to get people to go door to door for Robert Hurt in an effort to defeat Tom Perriello. TP has access to 5 Billion dollars of George Sorros money if he needs it. He can flood the district with calls,ads, and boots on the ground to topple his opponent.

How can we compete with that? Give us a reason to vote for you Robert.

A lot of people, including Hurt supporters, were critical of the host of non-Hurt candidates for running against Robert Hurt and not offering up a strong reason to be in support of them. That was an entirely valid criticism, but one that also holds true in November.

Robert Hurt has to give conservatives a reason to get excited about voting for him. He can't just run as the non-Tom Perriello.

The ball is in your court Robert.

Post-Primary Thoughts

2010-06-09T04:51:00.000-07:00

Nothing deep, just some observations.

First, with 35,307 total voters coming out for a turnout of just about 8%, I have to say that this primary had lower turnout than expected based on past competitive House primaries in Virginia. AND the turnout was lower than originally projected by the Hurt campaign. But if you look at other primaries in Virginia, including the crazy challenge to Wittman in the 1st, it's about the same. Which tells me that this is what you'd expect from any primary, even a low profile one like the 1st.

Conclusion: For all of the talk about the Tea Partiers bringing in lots of new voters there was . . . nothing. #Fail. Your usual set of folks came out and voted for your usual guy. State Senator Robert Hurt. Who won with just under 50% of the vote.

Second, with 17,104 voters coming out for Robert Hurt, just over a third of them were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt's backyard. To give you a comparison, 20% of all votes in the primary were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania. And in 2008, 16% of voters in the 5th were in Danville and Pittsylvania.

Talking about people voting for their local candidate. Boyd won Albemarle and Morton won Fluvanna. But Hurt managed to pull off victory in Charlottesville and run second in both Albemarle and Fluvanna. So I'm revoking what I said earlier about lower expectations for Hurt in the northern end. He totally showed his ability to bring home some voters in the north. Anyone who voted against him in the north had a fair opportunity to hear about him and make the decision to vote against him.

McKelvey won Greene, Cumberland, Buckingham, Bedford County and City, and Franklin (essentially a tie with Hurt). And I'll throw in that he practically tied Hurt in Campbell County!

Outside of his home base of Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt did worst in the localities where Perriello performed the best relative to typical Democratic performance in 2008. In other words, in localities where Perriello was picking up his largest numbers of McCain voters, the Republican primary voters yesterday backed someone other than Robert Hurt. In localities where McCain voters were more solid for Virgil Goode, the Republican primary voters backed Robert Hurt.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The strongest Hurt supporters I've encountered online tend to view Perriello as a Pelosi clone and they refuse to accept that he may have any appeal to independent voters. The strongest Hurt opponents I've encountered online will admit that Perriello is an impressive Representative who stands up for what he thinks is right and has some appeal to people who aren't card carrying Communists in the People's Republic of Charlottesville.

Tuesday Predictions . . . And An Endorsement!!

2010-06-07T15:54:00.000-07:00

By this time tomorrow the polls will have closed across Virginia and we'll be starting to wait for election returns to come in from the Old Dominion. Here in the 5th District of Virginia we've had the privilege, or curse, of watching a spirited and sometimes dirty primary among seven Republicans trying to win opportunity, or misfortune, of taking on Democrat Tom Perriello. This past Saturday, the Democrat Party officially nominated Tom Perriello to be their party's candidate for the 5th District of Virginia. Over the past year and a half, Perriello has raised almost $2 million and is sitting on a pile of cash worth almost $1.7 million.

Perriello is well positioned for the general election. Last week I gave some tough love to Robert Hurt by pointing out that he has voted to raise (some) taxes, not just the 2004 budget deal. He's not a liberal Democrat, he's a moderate Republican with some conservative credentials. But he's no Rand Paul or Sarah Palin.

Here is my tough love for my fellow Republicans about Perriello. Talk all you want about how he is a Pelosi clone, the real voters of the 5th District know he's not a knee-jerk Democrat. Take a look at the record. Yes, Perriello voter for the pork-filled stimulus, cap and tax, and the government take over of health care. But he's been very blunt about his support for these policies and hasn't tried to hide from them. Just a little bit to the east, Glenn Nye is running as a Democrat but doing everything possible to distance himself from Pelosi. He claims to oppose cap and tax and socialist health care, but in his letters to constituents he talked about how great cap and tax is. Politician insiders like Glenn Nye will tell you exactly what you want to hear, which is why you can't trust them. At least Perriello tells you what he believes.

And so when Perriello votes against his own party I believe he actually is doing what he thinks is right, not a political stunt to win voters for reelection. When he votes to defend the 2nd Amendment I believe that he really is pro-gun rights. When he votes against federal funding of abortion I believe him that he really does oppose federal funding of abortion. When he votes for a permanent bailout fund for Wall Street executives at the expense of the taxpayers I think he's doing what he thinks is right.

So this is going to be a tough reelection fight. I think Perriello has done everything possible to keep his Democrat base happy. And I think he's set himself up to win over the moderate voters that first put him into office. And maybe even pick up a few more.

When Robert Hurt first threw his hat into the ring I was distrustful. And here is my first Tuesday prediction. Tomorrow night an establishment Republican will fall short of the majority in his Republican primary. No, I'm not talking about Robert Hurt. I'm talking about South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, who I first blogged about last year. Bob Inglis will go into a runoff, where he will almost certainly be defeated for the GOP nomination.

Congressman Bob Inglis is what Robert Hurt could be in the future. No one can fault Inglis for being a liberal. He's just a career politician who, despite being a Republican, has some moderate and left-leaning instincts. He voted for TARP. He's not comfortable with the grassroots conservatives in the Tea Parties. He's the type of Republican who doesn't attract much notice until the going gets tough. And then he buckles and votes for bigger government. Just like Robert Hurt, who was virtually unimportant until his 2004 vote for higher taxes.

I don't want to put someone like Inglis into office if I can stop it from happening. The problem with Inglis is that he doesn't care that his vote for TARP doomed his reelection chances. He knows that the establishment will take care of him. He's got a nice retirement, maybe a job as a lobbyist, or a political appointee. There's no accountability when members like Inglis don't care if they vote for bigger government. Hurt could do the same. Get elected, serve for years, and then vote for another bailout. Sure, we'd get angry and vote him out, but would that really punish him when he's just going to go to K Street and get a cushy job?

So that's been my biggest concern for Hurt. My other concern is his hire of a ruthless mudslinging political operative who I won't mention here. I don't like negative personal campaigns. I don't want Perriello to win, but I will be voting for Jeff Clark if Hurt runs a negative campaign against Perriello that focuses on him personality and not politically.

Over the last week I've been preparing for the general election by setting mental benchmarks for Hurt. If he campaigns dirty, he won't get my vote. If he campaigns as the true conservative he isn't, he won't get my vote. If he's honest about who he is, he'll get my vote.

I was getting ready to type up a post tonight endorsing the most viable opponent to Hurt, Jim McKelvey. That was until I heard about his pre-primary antics of having a recording of Virgil Goode talk him up, despite the lack of a Goode endorsement. That's the lack of honor and integrity I worried Hurt's adviser would bring and it has totally alienated me. So, here is my endorsement, based on my fears that Hurt will betray the conservative base of the GOP and my belief that McKelvey has run a dirty campaign.

I will be writing in Virgil Goode.

The Radio Ad Hurt Doesn't Want You To Hear!!

2010-06-04T12:52:00.000-07:00

Robert Hurt Likes To Raise (Some) Taxes

2010-06-04T08:47:00.000-07:00

The dust hasn't even settled on the Republican primary and the Democrats are already going after State Senator Robert Hurt for his record to raise (some) taxes.

The Democratic committee has listed 28 different taxes and fees that it says Hurt supported in addition to the 2004 tax increase. All told, the Democrats say, the tax and fee increases total upwards of $2 billion.

“The truth is that Hurt can’t be trusted to keep his pledge not to raise taxes or his word on anything else,” committee spokesman Jesse Ferguson said in a statement. “Rather than run from his record, Hurt should start standing up and explaining his record of support for tax increases on everything from driving a car to filling up a gas tank to going hunting with your kids. Hurt might have signed a pledge to not raise taxes but his record makes it clear that the pledge isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.”

Ferguson pointed out that Hurt voted in favor of Virginia’s 2003 budget that included items such as a 5 percent increase on the sale price of liquor, a $5 additional fee for driver’s licenses, a mandatory $1 fee on license plates to pay for the Jamestown quadricentennial celebration in 2007 and a $4 additional fee for traffic offenses.

Robert Hurt has also voted to raise diesel fuel and vehicle registration as part of the unconstitutional 2007 transportation package. So now we're starting to get a clear record of Hurt's stance on taxes. Hurt has voted to raise (some) taxes. Hurt has voted against raising (some) taxes. Hurt has voted in support of cutting (some) taxes.

State Senator Robert Hurt is just your run of the mill Republican.

This Democrat attack is just removing the curtain that shields most Republicans who claim to have a consistent ideological opposition to any and all new taxes. The truth is that they don't.

Sometimes, Hurt and other Republicans support raising taxes to fund things they like. Sometimes they oppose taxes because they don't like what is being funded.

The same is true of Tom Perriello.

Perriello has voted to raise (some) taxes. Perriello has voted against raising (some) taxes. Perriello has voted in support of cutting (some) taxes.

Perriello and Hurt are both situationally pro-government.

The difference?

Hurt likes spending money on things Republicans like. Perriello likes spending money on things Democrats like.

I'm the same way! I like a strong military. I like investing in nuclear energy. I don't like funding ACORN and the SEIU. I don't like funding abortions.

Unless you are an ANARCHIST, you like some government programs.

Don't believe me. Let Hurt speak for himself.

Del. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, also voted for the tax increase in 2004.

“At the end of the day, I felt it was important to support a compromise that kept the state funded,” Hurt said, adding that in 2004 he was afraid of a possible government shutdown and that Virginia would lose its coveted AAA bond rating.

“I just don’t see the need to do that in 2006,” he said, pointing to the state’s $1.4 billion surplus this year. “People in Southside Virginia are adamantly opposed to raising the gas tax.”

In other words, Hurt believed we needed higher taxes to pay for stuff he liked in 2004. He didn't feel the same way in 2006.

That's just reality. This is not meant to be an attack on Robert Hurt.

My problem with Hurt is that he's now trying to be something he's not, a strict ideological conservative who opposes any and all tax increases. Please. Just be authentic. Be like Tom Perriello, who at least is honest and where he stands. The only people who believe Hurt are die-hard Republicans who are fiercely loyal to the party and to Hurt. His promises of being a ideological conservative ring hollow to independent conservatives who take consistent principled stances on the issues, not party.

Hurt is a career politician. Let's not hold him to the standard of being a political philosopher. He is what he is.

Hurt has two options should he make it to the general. One is to try to campaign as someone he is not, the second coming of Ron Paul. The other is to be honest about himself and focus on issues where he can have credibility, such as cracking down on illegal immigration and defending America from the liberal pro-UN agenda pushed by Perriello and his puppetmaster George Soros.

George W. Bush was President under a Republican Congress and a reckless increase of government spending. It's an embarrassment. But he crushed John Kerry in 2004 with almost no defections from conservatives. Why? Because he campaigned as the real deal, not a phony. He focused on keeping America safe. A lot of conservatives, myself included, weren't happy with his record on spending. But we voted for him because he was honest about where he stood and focused on conservative issues that I agreed with him on.

That's something Hurt can learn from.

2010 5th District Republican Primary Watch

2010-06-02T16:19:00.000-07:00

The 2010 5th District Republican primary is just days away. Finally, after the months of drama and sitting on the edge of our seats we'll get the answers we've been looking for. This is going to be the biggest Tuesday night since the end of LOST! Is Robert Hurt the big smoke monster? Are the seven candidates actually living in purgatory or hell? I don't know . . . but I do know a few things . . .

Throughout this primary I've been accused of being a paid shill for Verga AND as a cheerleading blogger for Morton. All along I've just done the best I can to be a principled conservative voice. As we go down the home stretch here are a few things to watch on primary night . . . and a few predictions.

Watch Hurt's old Delegate district and his current State Senate district. We've all been expecting him to do well in Pittsylvania and Danville (Nigel Coleman's endorsement of Morton aside), but it will be interesting to watch how other territory Hurt has represented votes. Parts of Campbell County, where local activists have been particularly heated in opposing Hurt, and Franklin County, where I've heard some complaints that Hurt "neglects" the county, will show just how much anger there is against Hurt among people who know him versus opposition to Hurt among groups that just don't know him (the Northern end of the district).

I don't expect Hurt to do well in the Northern end of the district, but he should be able to grab a respectable portion of the vote. I think there are a lot of folks up there who will be voting for Boyd or even Morton not as an anti-Hurt vote but as a pro-My local politician vote. That's why I'll be looking to Franklin and Campbell to figure out just how strong the opposition to Hurt is among conservative activists. Hurt has a perfectly good chance at winning back conservatives in the northern end who vote for Boyd. I'm not as sure about winning over conservatives in his own backyard who vote for McKelvey or someone else.

The rural parts of the district running from Cumberland to Prince Edward to Halifax will be interesting to watch. Will Hurt's direct mail campaign and under the radar approach pay off? Or will McKelvey's own negative mail strategy and sprinkling of TV ads push voters to him?

Finally, I will watch closely to see what Hurt's first steps are after the primary should he win. The only public poll of a Hurt-Perriello contest put the two tied, but Hurt significantly behind should a third party candidate run. I think that clearly describes the dynamic of the 5th District this year. Perriello has the money, the work ethic, and the drive to fight Hurt to the bitter end. A straight Hurt-Perriello race will be close, very close. Hurt cannot afford defections to a conservative third party. In effect, this makes the independent conservatives in the district the swing voters in the campaign, not the mushy centrists that pundits like to claim. If Hurt runs a convincing conservative campaign he wins. If he tries to run to the center as a moderate he will be defeated. That's the perfect scenario for conservatives in the 5th District. It puts the pressure on Hurt to come out swinging on strong conservative issues, instead of being a cautious centrist. Some ideas-

- Supporting the Fair Tax.
- Promising not to request earmarks.
- Reinforcing his no new taxes pledge and focusing on the taxes Perriello has voted to raise.
- Supporting term limits or making a term limits pledge.
- Supporting Arizona's new anti-illegal law and working to secure our borders and impose a moratorium on immigration, as supported by former Congressman Goode.

Pat Mullins Undermines GOP

2010-05-27T03:12:00.000-07:00

Pat Mullins just made a serious misstep that undermines the ongoing efforts of the Republican Party to defeat both Boucher and Perriello in the fall. And it also brings up additional questions about how serious the campaign against Glenn Nye is. The Republican Party of Virginia launched two new web ads asking if Boucher and Perriello were in attendance when the President of Mexico launched an attack on our 2nd Amendment rights. Great idea, except that both Boucher and Perriello have a pretty solid pro-gun record. Boucher has been endorsed by the NRA. So it's no surprise that the "gotcha" failed.

"I did not attend the speech," Rep. Boucher told The Ticket. "I oppose gun control. And my opposition to gun control has resulted in the National Rifle Assn. endorsing my reelection."

Not only that, adds Boucher spokeswoman Courtney Lamie, he's earned an A+ rating from the NRA.

Oh come on! Then something had to be up with that Perriello guy, right? He wasn't there but surely he was doing something anti-2nd Amendment during the speech. Maybe he was participating in one of those wussy turn-in-the-gun programs. The Virginia GOP could at least bat .500!

Perriello's press secretary, Jessica Barba, laughed when we told her about the ad mentioning that her boss was meeting with constituents during Calderon's speech.

"Shockingly, the ad was not well-researched," she told The Ticket. Barba included a letter to President Obama signed by her boss stating his opposition to Atty. Gen.l Eric Holder's "plan to reinstate the assault weapon ban."

"To even consider reinstating an "assault weapon" ban is an affront to our Founding Fathers, who so clearly understood the importance of the ordinary citizens' right to keep and bear arms," reads the letter.

The serious question isn't why Mullins gave the go ahead of an attack that would so clearly backfire. It's why he ignored Glenn Nye. Is the 2nd District some type of hot bed of gun control activities? Or is the GOP just not serious about taking out Glenn Nye? I've said before that the easy treatment of Nye could foreshadow a potential party switch in the future. This misstep by Mullins keeps the possibility on the table.

Hurt's Money Woes

2010-05-26T17:21:00.001-07:00

Politico is reporting that Robert Hurt has stepped up his fundraising strategy against Tommy Perriello. He's raised $115,000 since April 1st, which is about the same that he raised in twice as long during the first quarter of 2010. Of course we should also note that the original reports about Hurt's fundraising in April overstated his haul, which indicates that Hurt could be closer to $110,000 than $115,000. Who can trust him after his habitual lying about fundraising numbers and trusting Democrat Governor Mark Warner on the budget?

Hurt is also reporting $120,000 cash on hand, which is ironically about the same as the $115,000 that Virgil Goode has on hand. And Goode isn't even running! It's good to see that Hurt has stepped up his fundraising and is doubling his previous lackluster pace. But that still puts him well behind Tommy Boy, who is raising money at a record pace. In the same period as Hurt's fundraising, Perriello raised over $278,00, more than double Hurt! Hurt's $120,000 cash on hand is nothing compared to Perriello's $1,550,000 on hand!! Holy cow!

Supporters of Hurt keep on saying that Hurt will have the money to compete against Perriello. But how? Where are the barrels full of cash that will be dumped into the race after the primary? Why hasn't Hurt tapped into them before the primary? It's looking grim for Hurt right now, where's his bailout?!

Hurt Reveals General Election Strategy Against Perriello

2010-05-11T17:21:00.000-07:00

The Republican primary in Virginia's 5th District is still a few weeks away, but State Senator Robert Hurt has revealed a sneak peak into his general election strategy against Tom Perriello. So far, Hurt's primary strategy has been to sit back and try to coast to victory. Don't take my word for it. Even those who gave Hurt the inside track earlier on are questioning his approach to the primary.

Hurt’s got top-shelf strategists working for him, but I’m starting to wonder what the hell they’re thinking. It seems that the strategy is to continue to let Hurt take shots and not playing any defense. He’s not going to sit on the money that he has (is he?) but with the clock running out, when is he going to use it? In the past five weeks, Hurt comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.

Hurt continues to sit on his money, a sign that he's either in a really comfortable position in the primary despite the questions about his voting record or a fear that he'll need every penny possible against Tommy Boy. I think it's a decision that may cost him the nomination. You can't have your best players sit out a tough playoff game just because you think you'll need them more in the next round. That may guarantee you never get to the next round in the first place!

Maybe Hurt needs to call up Andy Sere to talk to him about what happens when Virginia State Senators assume that their primary is in the bag. In 2007, Andy Sere worked for Republican Tricia Stall after she had defeated incumbent State Senator Marty Williams in the Republican primary. Williams had a voting record similar to Hurt and was facing a lot of conservative opposition over his support for the 2007 transportation deal. But he ignored his opponents and Stall won a narrow primary victory before her campaign imploded and allowed the Democrats to take back the State Senate. Sere, who failed to salvage her campaign, could warn Hurt about the dangers of not taking conservative opposition seriously. But I guess the NRCC isn't returning Hurt's calls right now.

If Hurt wins he faces an almost certain third party threat from Jeff Clark. Hurt's got top-notch advisers and they know that if Hurt continues to try to hammer Perriello on being a big government socialist it will only serve to remind Tea Partier and supporters of Hurt's Republican opponents that Hurt isn't exactly the most loyal of allies in the fight against big government. Instead, he'll have to find issues where Perriello is weaker on and Hurt has less of a record to question.

Two press releases from Hurt today reveals that he's taking that approach.

First, he's announced the endorsement of former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, who now lives in Charlottesville. This isn't the type of endorsement that will make a splash in the primary, but Eagleburger is an important ally in attacking Perriello's liberal agenda of surrendering our national security to Russia and other totalitarian regimes.

I've blogged before about how Perriello is a Manchurian candidate. He talks about jobs, faith, and the like, but in reality his campaign against Goode and his time in office has been little more than a tentacle in the evil empire of chief vampire squid George Soros as he destroys America from the inside. From undermining our friend Israel to coddling terrorists, Perriello's liberal foreign policy agenda is ripe for attack and Hurt's advisers hope it will unite the conservative base after the bitter primary fight.

Second, Hurt has come out swinging at Perriello for standing silent while Obama has nominated an actual traitor to the Supreme Court. I'm not exaggerating. Kagan banned military recruiters at Harvard Law School during a time of war. If that's not treason, defined as giving aid and comfort to our enemies, I don't know what is! It's outrageous, but it's exactly the sort of liberal Ivy League agenda that Kagan and Perriello share.

Now there are two questions. First, will Hurt be able to use this strategy of attack in the general or will he be eliminated in the primary? Second, will this strategy work with the Tea Party movement? Stay tuned . . .

Does Perriello Violate Ten Commandments?

2010-05-07T04:06:00.000-07:00

Tom Perriello ran for Congress in 2008 telling everyone that he was a man of deep religious belief and had been called by his faith to service in far off exotic places. He was just a good local boy, one of us, dedicated to helping folks. In Congress, he's managed to keep this act going and is universally declared "pro-life" by the media despite doing absolutely nothing to promote his credentials on the subject. Such easy manipulation of a lazy media is the common Perriello mode of operation. Just check out this Perriello worshiping article from the liberal Washington Post.

Ask freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) what his votes in favor of President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan, cap and trade proposal and health care law mean for him politically and he readily admits he doesn't know.

What he does know is that "people evaluate authenticity", adding: "What people see from me is that I am trying to speak from a place of what makes me tick."

Perriello's authenticity-before-politics mantra has made him a hero to many Democrats -- and a figure of considerable regard in the eyes of the White House -- and simultaneously a top target for Republicans who believe he is voting his own interests and not those of his conservative-leaning 5th district of Virginia.

Yet another article from the liberal media that will be read by out of district liberals about how much of an awesome superhero Tommy Boy is. Look at him, voting his principle while lesser men cower in fear when criticized by Republicans. Look at him stand up for liberal principles over and over again. Why can't everyone else be more like Tommy?

We've heard this before.

This is the exact same treatment that Barack Hussein Obama received every day after his speech before the Democrat convention in 2004. Why can't everyone else be more like Barack? Why can't they speak like Barack? Look like Barack? Obamamania!

So where does Tommy fit into this Obama religion? If Obama is the Messiah, is Perriello Peter? Paul? Hell, ask some of the liberal blogs in love with Tommy and they might argue that Obama is only John the Baptist and Tom's the real deal Messiah!

All this worshiping of Perriello, just like the worship of Obama, is a violation of the Ten Commandments that Perriello claims to take so seriously. Perriello has become an idol to his liberal followers. We might as well plate him in gold!

The sad thing for the God-fearing men and women of the Fifth District is that we know what will happen. Just like Obama had his own cult of personality, Perriello is developing a similar following. Everyone knew that 2010 was going to be a bad year for Democrats because the Obama worshipers from 2008 would have no reason to come out and vote. They care about Obama, not Democrats. But now Tommy Boy has his own following and he may manage to get people to come out not because they like Democrats, but because they worship him. Maybe ACORN workers can serve commune at the polls on election day!

Knowing Is Half The Battle!!

2010-05-05T16:47:00.000-07:00

Look out! The Republican Primary in Virginia's 5th District is right around the corner! And the politics of the race are getting really interest as a number of boring establishment Republicans managed to win victories in last night's primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina against a divided field of more conservative candidates. The moral of the story? Don't underestimate the ability of big egos to divide the conservative vote!

That there will be seven candidates on the ballot seems to be the only thing we know so far about the primary. Who will win? A lot of people say Robert Hurt. I don't deny that he is the frontrunner, but I do question how overwhelming his campaign is. If the campaign were down to just, say, Hurt and McKelvey, would we really assume that Hurt had this easily? Hurt and Boyd? Hurt and Morton?

At the end of the day, I think most people who vote for Hurt were going to vote for him no matter what and trust him. And at the end of the day, I think most people who don't vote for Hurt were never going to vote for him (in the primary) and the question was/is who they vote for instead.

Hurt obviously has a loyal following and I wouldn't assume that an incumbent State Senator would be showing up to a gun fight with a pencil. But does that make the support Boyd has an Albermarle Supervisor meaningless? Morton from her work in Fluvanna and connections to social conservatives across the district? McKelvey's campaigning across the district?

There's a lot more to the district than just Hurt's State Senate district, which is a fact not only forgotten by Hurt's supporters by Goode's top-down campaign from 2008. Not to blame Goode himself, but someone had to make the decision to run an ad attacking Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" in the media market where his dad had been the doctor for half the kids in the area. Hell, how did you expect "Good Ol' Boy" vs. "Damn Yankee" to play among retirees in Smith Mountain Lake?

Here are some questions to ask when thinking about the primary and watching the results.

1- Hurt may represent a lot of the district as State Senator, but how much of his time has been focused on the non-Pittsylvania/Danville parts of the district? How deep are his roots in Franklin County?

2- How will Hurt be hurt by the Boyers in Campbell County and neighboring Bedford?

3- Between Boyd and Morton, is there any room for Hurt to make ground in the northern counties?

4- I would expect turnout to be light across the rest of the district from Brunswick to Prince Edward to Halifax. In such a low turnout environment, will those counties even matter? And will they be disproportionately effected by dedicated conservative activists?

5- Can Hurt get over 50% of the vote? Anything less seriously endangers him to claims that he won't be able to unite the party. If he wins with 30% of the vote and the support of only Danville and Pittsylvania, how can he unite Republicans behind him? This isn't like running for President were naming a Vice-President can help heal wounds. If Hurt struggles to win shouldn't he make the extra effort to win over conservatives by taking strong stances? Say, supporting the Fair Tax?

Feda Kidd Morton = Jo Ann Davis?

2010-05-04T03:22:00.000-07:00

Months ago, I wrote that it was difficult to rule anyone out of the Republican primary because the low turnout will give some candidates a chance despite their poor fundraising.

Cantor spent around $800,000 and won by a nose, 263 votes, against State Senator Martin in a primary that was practically 50%-50%. Martin barely raised $200,000 in the primary and Eric Cantor also had the support of the Republican establishment with the backing of then Governor Jim Gilmore. And he barely, just barely, won.

The story is similar but slightly different in the 1st District that same year, when Jo Ann Davis defeated Paul Jost for the Republican nomination. Jost dropped almost $1 million into the primary, Davis barely spent $100,000. Jost also had the support of Jim Gilmore. But Davis pulled out a victory and went on to serve in Congress.

I also noted why this would particularly help Feda Kidd Morton as the leading candidate of the social conservatives.

Anyone who has worked in local politics knows the difference that social conservatives can make for the Republican Party. I remember talking to my few liberal friends back in the 1990s when social conservatives were making a strong effort to win at the local level on school boards and boards of supervisors. My liberal friends were shocked that such "extremists" were somehow winning by strong margins.

Social conservatives matter because they are active members of their community. They go to church, they are involved in the PTA, their kids play baseball or soccer. They are the neighbor you depend on when you go away and you need someone to feed the cats or just watch the house. When they run for local office everyone knows them. Liberals aren't active in their communities, they don't volunteer, they don't go to church, they don't have families and kids.

With her experience on the school board, Feda Morton knows what it takes to get conservatives involved at the grassroots level. For all of the talk about the Tea Party movement, there's also a wing of the Republican Party that's just as scared by Obama's proposal to allow gays in the military. Or to pass a huge socialist health care package that will fund abortions with your taxpayer dollars. The 5th District has these hard working conservatives, like Tim Boyer over in Campbell County.

Now others are making comparisons to Jo Ann Davis when talking about Feda's campaign. State Delegate Brenda Pogge compared Feda to the former Congresswoman in her endorsement. And I think there is a compelling case to compare how Jo Ann Davis won in her primary by focusing on positive conservative values while two well funded candidates destroyed each other.

Feda may not have the money that other candidates have. She hasn't been a wealthy real estate developer, she's a simple but dedicated teacher. But that may be the difference in the primary. Having the support of dedicated church goers and community members in this low turnout primary could be enough. I don't expect more than the 40,000 to 50,000 voters that came out in the 1st and 7th during similar circumstances. I think victory could come around 15,000 votes or so. Does Feda have that? We'll soon find out.

FRC Endorses Feda For Congress

2010-04-23T03:16:00.000-07:00

This is HUGE:

The Family Research Council Action political action committee waded into the closely-watched Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th District Thursday, announcing that it is endorsing teacher Feda Morton.

"Feda Morton has proven that she is a true friend of the family. We need men and women who will fight to defend the family, and family budgets, against the extreme agenda of the Left in the House of Representatives," said FRC Action PAC Chairman Tony Perkins. "I am convinced Ms. Morton will do just that.”

. . .

While Perriello campaigned as pro-life during his successful 2008 run against veteran GOP Rep. Virgil Goode, the freshman Democrat has taken criticism from pro-life groups for supporting the health care reform bill. Some in the pro-life community argue that the legislation lacked sufficient restrictions ensuring that the bill would not provide federal funds for abortions.

In this divided primary, Feda Morton has slowly been building up momentum behind her campaign as the strongest social conservative in the field. Social conservatives are the base voters in the Republican Party, the people who loyally go out and work tirelessly for GOP campaigns everywhere. And with recent questions raised about the social conservative credentials of other candidates, I think Morton is in a very good position as we approach the mad dash to the finish line. Good luck Feda!

NRCC Giving Hurt The Cold Shoulder?

2010-04-20T17:21:00.001-07:00

Is the NRCC giving their hand picked candidate in the Virginia 5th the cold shoulder?

Someone call up Andy Sere quick and find out!

Just today, the NRCC upgraded several Republican candidates to their Young Guns program. The list included several Virginia Republicans, a fact not lost on the conservative blogs. But even though the NRCC added candidates in competitive primaries, such as in the Virginia 2nd and 11th, they didn't add Robert Hurt.

Why?

Hurt doesn't even get on the third tier "On the Radar" list.

Has Hurt's lackluster fundraising, unimpressive campaigning, and overall laziness alienated the big dogs at the NRCC?

Ask Perriello About Confederate History Month

2010-04-12T18:03:00.000-07:00

It's that time of year again. It's like Christmas in the spring. Members of Congress line up their local projects for taxpayer funded pork. Check out Tommy Boy's list of projects here. Here's an interesting one:

Project Name: Sesquicentennial Celebration of the End of the Civil War
Recipient: Appomattox County, VA
Address: 153A Morton Lane, Appomattox, VA 24544
Amount: $200,000

Description: This project is a valuable use of taxpayer funds because the 150th Anniversary of the End of the Civil War in 2015 represents a major opportunity for job creation and economic growth for the County of Appomattox as a tourist destination. The funds will be used to further enhance the Appomattox Courthouse, improve its facade, and address parking accommodations for tourists.

Since Congressman Tom Perriello is supporting additional funding for Appomattox to prepare for the 150th Anniversary of the End of the Civil War (Or the War of Northern Aggression in these parts) to make Appomattox a tourist destination, would he also agree with Governor Bob McDonnell's statement recognizing the Confederacy and its impact on Virginia? McDonnell's statement was designed to encourage tourism to our historical sites in Virginia, including Appomattox. Doesn't Perriello want all of America to "See the Fifth," including Appomattox?

Glenn Nye: Getting By With A Little Help From His Friends

2010-04-11T11:39:00.001-07:00

Let's take a step back from the Republican primary in Virginia's 5th District and look at the other vulnerable freshman Democrat in Virginia, our dear friend Glenn Nye.

For the last few months, everything was falling into place for an almost certain Republican victory in the 2nd District. Nye's strategy of voting and acting like a Republican has totally alienated his Democratic base. Just look at the reaction to his health care vote from the base, party activists to precinct chairs to this warning from Delegate Lionell Spruill:

Del. Lionell Spruill Sr., D-Chesapeake, said Nye should support health-care reform out of loyalty to President Barack Obama, on whose coattails Nye was elected in 2008. "If Glenn Nye is not for it, I will not be there to support him. He owes the president that vote, as far as I'm concerned."

Worse for Nye, he's in the same Commonwealth as Perriello. Every time he's going to a big liberal Democratic donor and tries to explain his voting record, they'll ask him why he can't be more like Tommy Boy. Nye's entirely dependent on the big establishment money of corporate PACs that have corrupted our political system.

Can it get any worse?

Well, throw in Krystal Ball next door in the 1st. Every Democratic activist in Tidewater Virginia will be drawn to her progressive campaign, which is obviously doomed. But that doesn't matter for these liberals. Every liberal college student from W&M or ODU or CNU that drives to the 1st instead of the 2nd is one less person knocking on doors for Glenn.

Ouch!

No wonder the pundits have shifted his race into the "Tossup" category.

Now comes the bombshell that Kenny Golden is running as an Independent!

What a disaster and a horrible, horrible choice on his part.

Could this save Nye's ass?

It's possible, which is why I have to wonder what is going through Kenny Golden's mind in making this move? Who in the world would council him that this is a good idea?

If Golden is unable to raise significant funds, his Independent bid will not make much of an impact. So we'll have to closely monitor who is behind his campaign. Will any Republican donors bolt to support his campaign? I hope not, but I have my fears . . .

I have long suspected that there is some funny business going on in the 2nd. Nye may vote conservative on a few issues, but he's still a Pelosi supporting Democrat. The NRCC has treated him with kid gloves while going after Perriello with everything they've got. My fears went away during the recent months with no additional signs that the GOP was favoring Nye, but now this third party bid by Golden has me worried again.

Just who is behind Golden's attempt to split the anti-Nye vote?

If Nye survives because of a third party candidate, who benefits?

Certainly not the liberal Democrats who would rather see Nye defeated this year so they can find a more progressive candidate in 2012.

If Nye does survive, he'll be between a rock and a hard place facing redistricting. Unlike Perriello, who has everything to gain from a more Democratic seat, Nye would risk a Democratic primary challenge if the 2nd District was made more Democratic. As I've said before, it's very possible to draw an additional minority-majority district in Tidewater Virginia. If Nye scrapes by this time, the Republicans can go to him and say that he either switches parties, much like Virgil Goode did, or he'll face an almost certain challenge from the Democratic base. Who might benefit from this plot?

Who indeed . . .

Luckily, someone has already noted that Delegate Lionnel Spruill has been assigned to the Privileges and Elections Committee that will handle redistricting in Virginia. Here we have a Black Democrat who's already said that he will do nothing to support Nye in a position where he could lend support to a redistricting plan to ensure that Nye will face a primary challenge.

The GOP won't need Spruill to push their own gerrymandering bill in the House, but his support for the bill could influence a few Democratic State Senators. Enough to get the GOP gerrymandering through?

And certainly it would be good press for the GOP, the party of the recent Confederate History Month, to say that they are pushing a "bipartisan" redistricting plan that helps minorities!

And they also ensure that the 1st and the 4th, two Districts that may be trending Democratic, are purged of enough Democrats so they don't have worry about them for years to come.

So when can I buy a Spruill for Congress bumper sticker?

Stop Stupid Conservatives!

2010-04-09T06:59:00.000-07:00

I know I haven't been posting that much recently and my absence has been greatly missed but after the health care "reform" vote I was pretty burnt out with politics. It's hard to keep going after that sort of crushing defeat for conservatism and the Republican Party. The Republican opposition fumbled at the end in picking the wrong issues to focus on and enabled the Democrats to rally together and pass a historic expansion of government control of the economy and our lives that may never, ever be repealed. I was almost going to drop out of politics entirely.

But here I am. Because I love this country too much to give up just because the Republicans in Washington are more hapless than the French in stopping the expansion of the Obama Reich.

Part of the problem is that there are a lot of well meaning but stupid conservatives out there who undermine our efforts. Terrorists who make threats against Tom Perriello and his family. Idiots who make racist signs at rallies. And morons who write letters to the editor with outright lies in them.

If the health care bill is so extraordinarily wonderful, why has Congress exempted its members and their staff from it? It seems to me that if it is so well thought-out and advantageous, everyone would beg to participate.

No Susan, the truth is that members of Congress and their staff will have to go onto the new exchange.

If this bill is so wonderful, why was the Senate forced to use reconciliation to pass it and the House to use the deem-and-pass option?

No Susan, the truth is that the House did not use the deem and pass option. And be careful about focusing on reconciliation, which is an option to change existing programs to cut costs and lower the deficit. So a Democrat like Tom Perriello can defend the reconciliation as a way to cut down the size of the health care bill even more and remove the kickbacks you mention later.

If it can stand on its own merits, why did the Senate have to bribe members with special exceptions for states where the senators didn’t really want to vote for it?

Good question. Those Senators should be voted out of office. But these special exceptions were removed by reconciliation.

Where in the Constitution does it specifically state the government can force all citizens (except, of course the congressional members, their staffers and the president and his staff) to buy a specific product?

Thank you Susan. It took you a while but you finally got to the biggest problem, although you undermine it by falsely claiming that Congress has granted itself an exemption. That is the key of the multiple lawsuits against the bill. That's what Republicans have to run on. That's why this is socialism. Next time save some space in your letter and focus only on this.

Don't Mess with Texas, or Larry Sabato

2010-04-06T04:25:00.000-07:00

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. Or, in this situation, Larry Sabato.

As you may remember, poor ol' Larry Sabato has fallen on some tough times every since his friend with benefits Virgil Goode got defeated in 2008. Unlike Goode, Perriello sees no reason to push to bribe Sabato with earmark money year after year after year. Sabato's first chance to pick the earmark back up ended when Cordel Faulk decided not to run against Perriello, but don't be surprised if Sabato's grudge makes a play in 2010 as well. Like feeding disingenuous misinformation about Perriello's vulnerability.

I asked Isaac Wood, who covers House races for Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" at the University of Virginia which districts with high minority populations where the Democratic incumbents are in a lot of trouble stick out most in his mind. He named two, both of which turned out to be on the list of 23: Steve Dreihaus in OH-1 and Tom Perriello in VA-5. . . . As for Perriello, Wood noted that he "won a 727-vote victory in the closest House race in the country in this district where 23% of the residents are African-American. While McCain garnered 6,000 more votes in 2008 than Bush won in 2004, Obama outperformed Kerry by a whopping 36,000 votes. That is a lot of votes to pick up in just four years and the 28% of the district that is non-white likely played a big role."

When someone whips out statistics about a single in isolation, never, ever believe them.

Now, Wood is right in that there's a big difference between the performance of the two presidential candidates in 2008 and 2004. Obama received 35,402 more votes than Kerry, which in my math class would round down to 35,000 and not up to 36,000. But what about, say, Glenn Nye's 2nd District?

There, Obama received 40,681 more votes than Kerry! And McCain actually received 4,372 fewer votes than Bush!

The fightin' 11th?

52,411 more votes on the Democratic side, but 5,101 less on the Republican side.

Now I will be fair and note that Wood was specifically asked about vulnerable Democrat incumbents in high minority districts. Perriello is one of them. But so is Nye. But Nye hasn't pissed off Larry. With Nye's surprisingly liberal record on gay rights in contrast to his conservative voting in everything else, maybe Nye can be Larry's new friend with benefits?

Taking a Stand Against Violence

2010-03-25T03:38:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, I called on all candidates for the Republican nomination against Tom Perriello to stand against violence and for civility in politics. So far, Laurance Verga, Ken Boyd, and Feda Morton have all stepped up to set a strong example as conservatives who strongly disagree with Tom Perriello and are working to remove him from office, but doing so through the ballot box, not by using the bullet box. The Jefferson Area Tea Party, based in Charlottesville, has also condemned the violence. So have our Governor, Bob McDonnell, and our Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, have also stood up against this attempt at intimidation. The Roanoke Times has the story.

Gov. Bob McDonnell echoed Perriello's beliefs that any problems with Perriello's performance should be handled at the ballot box.

"I certainly condemn anybody using any acts of vandalism or violence to express their opinion," he said. "That's not the way we do business in Virginia."

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has a following in the Tea Party movement, called the posting of Perriello's brother's address "appalling."

"I think that is way over the line," he said. "I don't think it's close. It's an appalling approach. It's not civil discourse. It's an invitation to intimidation."

But the NRCC's Andy Sere wants to make sure we don't forget that Tom Perriello isn't the victim.

While his organization doesn't condone such behavior, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Andy Sere said Perriello is not the victim.

"Central and Southside Virginians are the ones who are going to have the bear the burden of increased taxes," he said. "What you're seeing is a frustration among his constituents who believe he's not listening to them."

Yes, Central and Southside Virginians will suffer. But to claim that Perriello isn't the victim, when the lives of his brother and his brother's family are in danger, is deeply offensive. It's just the sort of out of touch and anti-family comment I've come to expect from the jerk who attacked Rick Boucher for missing votes because his mother was on her deathbed.

A day after all of the Charlottesville area candidates managed to come out against threats of violence, where is Robert Hurt? Is Hurt too busy fundraising at the end of the financial quarter to make a statement? Is he too worried about coming out in opposition to the antics of the Danville Tea Party, which have been condemned by the local paper? Is this just how they do things down in Southside? Or maybe Hurt's going to let a spokesman explain everything for us because he's too afraid to do anything on his own?

Target Tom: Tea Party Activists Cross The Line

2010-03-24T09:43:00.000-07:00

I blogged on Sunday about my concerns that parts of the Tea Party movement has crossed the line and is now threatening to bring down the greatest grassroots conservative movement since the election of Ronald Reagan. I thought that spitting on members of Congress and hurling slurs at them was unbecoming of a civilized nation such as the United States. It's certainly not how my mamma raised me.

Now we have the news that local Tea Party activists, including the Chairman of the Danville Tea Party, spread an address they believed to be Congressman Tom Perriello's residency. They were encouraging people to "stop by" to express their views to Perriello after his health care vote. A vote that saw vandalism of several Democrat offices and threats of assassination against President Obama.

This is getting out of hand:

When Coleman learned the address was actually Perriello’s brother’s — Politico reported he and his wife have four young children — Coleman commented on another blog that the mistake was “collateral damage.”

“Do you mean I posted his brother’s address on my Facebook?” Coleman wrote. “Oh well, collateral damage.”

What angers me is that Nigel and Mike are totally unapologetic about their mistake:

“If they would like to provide me with the address of Tom, then I’d be more than happy to take it down,” he said. “I have no reason to believe it’s not his house.”

. . .

Feigel justified Troxel’s decision to post the home address by saying that Perriello’s office does not “respond to e-mail, they don’t respond to letters, they don’t respond to us showing up at his office. So what am I going to do?”

“We should be protesting on his front lawn. He betrayed his district,” Feigel added.

I am getting pretty sick and tired about complaints that Perriello isn't responding to us. Look, the guy is a liberal Democrat. Everyone knew that in 2008. Virgil narrowly lost because of the historic turnout of the Democratic base in 2008, good campaigning by Perriello, and horrible campaigning by Tucker Watkins. Perriello is just doing what he ran to do, vote like a Democrat. And given that the polls show him neck and neck with any opponent, instead of far behind, there seem to be a damn many liberals hiding around in the Fifth. If you don't know any, get your ass out of Southside and go to Charlottesville. And don't complain that Perriello is hiding from us when the guy did 21 town halls in August and appeared on Bradley's show! The guy talks to the public far more than Virgil ever did. I disagree with what he's saying, but you're an idiot if you think you're going to change his mind. Do you think liberal protesters and Code Pink could ever have changed Virgil's mind? Hell no!

But back to my anger . . .

I don't know if I have words to describe this.

Law enforcement authorities are investigating the discovery of a cut propane gas line at the Virginia home of Rep. Tom Perriello’s (D-Va.) brother, whose address was targeted by tea party activists angry at the congressman’s vote for the health care bill.

An aide to the congressman confirmed to POLITICO that a line to a propane tank behind his brother's home near Charlottesville had been sliced.

WHAT.

THE.

HELL.

Yesterday, Republican Laurance Verga tweeted his response to the story of Perriello's brother's address being posted:

I discourage all from protesting on @TomPerriello's private property. Show him the respect we all deserve http://gop.am/505o

The same day, Lucy Goode defended the posting of the address, calling it a distraction from the real issue. I wonder how she would feel if her life were in danger.

As far as I know, Verga is the only Republican candidate with the basic human decency to come out and defend Perriello and his family. I demand that EVERY Republican in the race against Perriello come out and say the same, or else they have shown themselves to be the candidate of the terrorist fringe.

Tea Party Overreach?

2010-03-21T07:09:00.000-07:00

This weekend, the Tea Party movement appears to have overplayed its hand and risks alienating the rest of the nation just as much as the Democrat Party has.

Spitting on members on Congress and using racial slurs against them totally undermines the work of other Tea Party activists, including those here in Virginia, to present the movement as respectful and fueled not by racism, but by liberty and freedom.

I cannot express how . . . annoyed, to be polite, I have been with the constant tweeting of phone numbers of members of Congress, followed by constant complaints that no one is answering the phone. I wonder why? I see tweets from people listing the members who they swear to defeat this fall that includes members who are retiring. Are you that uninformed? I see tweets labeling some members as undecided who have come out yes or no. The whole process is an unorganized chaotic mob.

I am close to the point of giving up on politics entirely. The Tea Party movement is showing itself to be utterly disorganized with most members lacking in any degree of civil discourse. The work of a few selfless organizers is being overwhelmed by the raw anger of conservatives who, ultimately, care more about yelling than anything else. I frankly question how many of the Virginia folks who went to DC this weekend understand that unless something happens quick in the GOP primary, we'll have a tax-raising liar as our nominee.

Perriello's Perfect End Game

2010-03-18T18:14:00.000-07:00

We are just days, if not hours, away from a final vote on the Democrat health care "reform" package and the Republican Party, particularly the NRCC, is allowing Tom Perriello to position himself perfectly for victory.

You heard me right.

Let's recap what the Republican Party is doing. In the final hours before the Democrat majority passes a massive government take over of health care, a take over that includes a slate of new taxes and Big Brother forcing you to buy their health insurance, the Republican Party is focused on the secondary issues of abortion and parliamentary procedure.

Don't get me wrong. I'm pro-life. I'm pro-democracy and pro-Constitution. What the Democrats are doing is total sleaze. But I'm not now nor will ever be a swing voter. I'm smart enough to see through the Democrat lies.

First, the NRCC's Andy Sere foolishly pounced on an offhand comment by Perriello on MSNBC to claim that he was backing away from his pledge to oppose federal funding of abortion. This gave Perriello the chance to reinforce his pledge, which was spread across the district.

This might have worked if the NRCC felt confident that they could trap Perriello as a hypocrite if he later voted for the Senate version of the bill AND if they convincingly argued that it did allow for federal funding of abortion. But in a masterful attack on the Republican Party, Perriello came out firing from both barrels to argue that the Senate language was good enough. The district coverage is comprehensive. The supporters, from Catholic Hospitals to local Virginia professors, are strong. And now Perriello has Catholic groups running ads in the district backing him up, citing a group Perriello founded!!!!!

Andy Sere has been caught with his pants down. Perriello has totally out played the Republicans on this one and has left Sere crying on the side lines like Vanderbilt against St. Murray. This has become a story of "He says, she says" in which the Republicans can cite their pro-life organizations and Catholic bishops while Perriello has his Catholic nuns and other religious organizations. A swing voter isn't going to know who to believe, but they are going to know that Perriello manages to get called "pro-life" in almost every article out there without having done or said ANYTHING to define himself as "pro-life."

So now that Perriello has neutralized the issue of abortion, he's turned to the parliamentary procedure. Or the insider baseball crap, as he calls it. Once again, Perriello is able to vote against his party on something meaningless and look like the good Catholic choir boy who believes in fairness and transparency.

If the Republican Party doesn't move fast, Perriello will be able to vote for a "reconciled" health care bill that fixes the most "offensive" parts of the Senate bill, like the kickbacks to Nebraska, Louisiana, and Florida, but not the socialist core of the bill. Will the new bill suddenly reverse course and embrace the free market? Hell no. Will it allow choice and competition? Hell no. But will it sound a lot better than the scary pro-abortion and pro-corruption bill that the GOP has been talking about for weeks? Yes.

The Republican Party has to start listening to the Tea Party movement, the folks who really see what matters. There is a big government takeover of our society. All aspects of our society. Focus on these issues and we'll win. Ignore them and you'll keep Democrats like Pelosi and Perriello in power.

Big News in VA-05

2010-03-15T04:55:00.000-07:00

I am surprised that there's any member of the General Assembly willing to bolt the establishment and support anyone but Robert Hurt. I'm even more surprised that they picked Feda Morton to endorse! Now if only Morton could get endorsed by someone in the district, unless she's thinking of running against Rob Wittman. This press release came via e-mail:

Republican Fifth District Congressional candidate Feda Morton has received the endorsement of State Delegate Brenda Pogge (R96th). Delegate Pogge joins a growing list of influential conservative leaders throughout the Fifth District and the Commonwealth who are backing Morton's candidacy.

"Feda Morton is a conservative leader of principle who has worked tirelessly for decades leading on issues important to our movement. As a member of Congress, she will not only cast the right votes, but will be a leader on the issues that matter the most in putting our nation back on the right course. I predict she will be a leader in the mold of the late great Congresswomen Jo Ann Davis, for whom I worked with closely in the past."

"I am very thankful for the confidence and trust that Del. Pogge is entrusting in me and in our campaign", Morton said. "She knows that I will be an advocate for the citizens of the Fifth Congressional District", Morton said in response to Delegate Pogge's endorsement. Morton stated that her 20 years of experience working to build the conservative wing of the Republican Party is one of her key strengths that prompted Delegate Pogge to endorse her candidacy. "Delegate Pogge knows that I have been consistent in my conservative beliefs throughout my years as a builder of our party", Morton continued. "The positions that I have on the issues that our country is facing today are consistent with the beliefs that I have had throughout my adult life."

Time to Cull the Herd!

2010-03-14T07:13:00.000-07:00

The Second Lump Report is out ranking the candidates in the Republican Primary field.

Let us once again clarify to the those who are unfamiliar with the TEA Party movement, the political foundation and focus are; (1) limited government, (2) fiscal responsibility, (3) free and fair markets, (4) individual liberty base on personal responsibility, and (5) a return to constitutional governance. We, the TEA Party, believe these constitutional principles, as well as others, have been consistently disregarded by the current, and past administrations.

That's great, and their rankings provide some insight into how to cull the herd of candidates:

McPadden: 3.5 lumps
McKelvey: 3.5 lumps
Verga: 3 lumps
Boyd: 2 lumps
Morton: 1.5 lumps
Hurt: 1.5 lumps
Ferrin: 0.5 lumps

Ferrin and Morton have to drop out, now. Hurt isn't going to drop out, so if we want a chance at defeating him in the Republican Primary we need to reduce the number of candidates. Ferrin and Morton don't have money, don't have any name ID, and don't have the support of the conservative grassroots. I think McPadden needs to drop out too, but I understand he's a grassroots favorite. I also think McKelvey should consider a plan to drop out now to prepare a run for seat as an independent, as he has the resources and willingness to give it a go.

Also, here's their take on Goode:

Although Mr. Goode is not a candidate, the TEA Party leaders included him in their discussions, and “IF he were a candidate to recapture the seat he held for 12 years as many TEA Party and other VA5th district voters wish, he would garner a minimum of 4 Lumps.

Agreed!

Explaining VA-05, Part II: The Republicans

2010-02-28T05:40:00.001-08:00

What better time to talk about the difference between the Republicans in the race than the day after their debate in Lynchburg?

In my COMPREHENSIVE analysis of the only independent and public poll on the race, I noted that there are three tiers right now: generic no-name Republicans, Ken Boyd, and Robert Hurt.

But it's not because Hurt is better than Boyd, or Boyd better than everyone else. The candidates fall into these tiers because of name recognition in the district. Give anyone, Verga or McPadden for example, the same name ID as Hurt and I will bet you they'll be running the same against Perriello as Hurt. Period.

Boyd runs 6% ahead of the generic Republican average by picking up just less than 1% of total voters from the Democratic column, almost entirely Democrats who had been undecided, 2% of total voters from the Independent column, almost entirely Independents who had been undecided, and 3% of total voters from the Republican column, almost entirely Republicans who had been undecided. As I said before, there's no significant dent to Perriello's base numbers unless you run Goode.

The difference between Hurt and Boyd is entirely among Republicans, with Hurt adding just 2% of total voters to his performance from the ranks of undecided Republicans. Hurt has twice the name ID as Boyd. Some people want to read into that 2% difference, which may not even be statistically significant, and say Hurt is the only candidate who can defeat Perriello. I say that anyone who can keep the Republicans and conservatives together can defeat Perriello.

Some people claim that Hurt is the only candidate who can defeat Perriello because of some non-existence network of support he's built up over the years running in races in one of the most Republican areas of the state. Hurt's never had to campaign a day in his life before going up against Perriello. You want to see what a network of support looks like? Here.

Others bring out the money issue, as if Eric Cantor is going to hold a grudge against someone who defeats Hurt in the primary. We all know where Hurt's big money is coming from. When Hurt is defeated in the Republican primary, Eric Cantor will be on the phone that very night with the new Republican nominee lining up fundraisers for him or her. Why? Because Cantor knows that Perriello is too much of a target to give him a pass.

When casting your vote for the Republican primary, don't make your vote based on a belief that so and so is the only candidate who can win because of some showing in a poll. Don't make your vote based on an idea that someone can raise more money. Or has a history of winning races. Make your vote based on who you think will be the best member of Congress.

Why did Perriello run?

2010-02-22T05:03:00.000-08:00

I blogged before about Tom Perriello, Manchurian candidate for the radical leftist agenda to bring down this country. Perriello's Ivy-bred background and affiliation with radical advocacy groups allying with America's enemies makes him the perfect politician for George Soros and the Democrat Party. But why did Perriello decide to run against Virgil Goode? Why didn't Perriello just wait to be a member of the Obama Administration, or the Clinton Administration (which was a scary possibility when he first started his campaign!) Why elected office?

Perriello claims to have made the decision to run against Virgil in the fall of 2007. He quickly raised an impressive sum of money for a long shot challenger in what was considered a safely Republican seat. While other Democrats in 2008 like Nye or Connolly had legitimate reasons to be seen as challenging Democrats, Perriello had nothing going for him. Virgil had been around forever. It wasn't an open seat, or a vulnerable Republican like Thelma Drake who narrowly survived in 2006. Yet Perriello made a strong case to his New York donors that they should give him money. How?

Because the liberals wanted to get rid of Virgil Goode.

Ever since switching parties, Virgil had been a sore spot for the liberals around Charlottesville. But his advocacy against illegal immigration and radical Islam, the same radical Islam that Perriello and his allies favor in their efforts to undermine the United States and our allies like Israel, put a big red target on him. It's almost too convenient to think that Perriello decided to run against Virgil and just so happened to know so many wealthy donors who wanted to get rid of Virgil. The question has to be asked, did Perriello decide to run against Virgil or did George Soros tell him to run against Virgil?

Explaining VA-05, Part I: Perriello's Base

2010-02-22T04:54:00.001-08:00

My post, the MOST COMPREHENSIVE analysis of PPP's VA-05 poll, seems to have confused people who don't have a reading level higher than a fifth grader's. So I'm going to try to break it up and make it really, really, really simple for everyone.

First, let's talk about Perriello's base.

Perriello is looking at a natural base of 45% against a generic Republican . . .

The conclusion is that Perriello is in a strong position right now, hovering around 45% of the vote. Within the poll, Republican candidates with name ID are able to bring home higher numbers of the Republican base to pull even with Perriello. Pulling even is mostly a matter of switching Republicans from undecided to voting Republican. By pulling off 3% to 5% of voters, having a known Republican candidate changes the balance of undecided voters. We now have undecided Republicans down to 6% to 4%, about even with undecided Democrats (5%). And about even with undecided Independents (6%).

It is important to note that only one candidate, Virgil Goode, is able to make a significant dent in Perriello's performance. Everyone else, including Robert Hurt, are competitive only because they bring home assorted Republicans and Independents who are undecided in when polled about Republicans with low name ID. Seriously folks, Perriello is almost at victory already despite being a DEMOCRAT that voted for the stimulus, cap and tax, and Pelosi's health care boondoggle. And he's been attacked over and over again. And again. And again.

This guy isn't going to be pushed over. Unless we talk Virgil into returning, Perriello is going to be very competitive against any Republican. And don't try to fool yourself into believing that maybe someone like Hurt can pick off Perriello's supporters once he becomes more well known. We're talking about people who already are favoring Perriello after a year of his radically liberal agenda. People who already believe his liberal lies. And he's got close to a million on hand to spend selling his lies while the Republican candidate tries to define himself. Only Virgil has the existing positive reputation among even misguided Democrats to win some of them over.