I'm ready to call part of the 2012 election right now. Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell will be the Republican candidate for Vice-President in 2012. It doesn't matter who the Presidential nominee is, everyone in the field would benefit from McDonnell being on the ticket. The way Obama's poll numbers are plunging, McDonnell should be prepared to move to DC in January of 2013.
And then what?
The problem is that unless McDonnell can force bold changes to Virginia's budget through the Democrat State Senate, where we also have the "Republicans" like Robert Hurt, he'll be forced to move year to year balancing the budget with smoke and mirrors. The system will eventually break down, something a Governor facing a reelection and possible second term would be more likely to tackle. But McDonnell, faced with just one term and the likelihood of the VP golden parachute, will be fine to just kick the problem down the road.
It will eventually blow up in the GOP's face. Lt. Governor Bill Bolling will take over in 2013, setting himself up for the Republican nomination for Governor and ending the chance of the party nominating the more energized Ken Cuccinelli. The budget will begin to break down as the short term solutions expire. Bolling will be defeated by a well funded Democrat, maybe McAuliffe or Connolly, and the stage will be set for another historic tax increase in Virginia.
You heard it here first.
Showing posts with label Bob McDonnell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bob McDonnell. Show all posts
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Friday, September 25, 2009
Doug Wilder Didn't Endorse, But I Will
Here's Doug Wilder's non-endorsement in the gubernatorial race:
In the end, Governor Wilder declined to endorse anyone. Is this a victory for McDonnell? I'm not entirely sure. Given that Wilder didn't endorse Deeds in 2005 the status quo would bee a non-endorsement in the race. A Deeds endorsement would be a victory for Deeds and a McDonnell endorsement a victory for McDonnell. The status quo of no endorsement is pretty much a defeat for both candidates. That's just the way it is.
But if Doug Wilder doesn't want to endorse allow me to fill in with my own endorsement.
I am, of course, backing Bob McDonnell for Governor. McDonnell is arguably the last best hope Republicans have for saving Virginia as the Conservative Commonwealth.
It's easy to forget that Virginia has had only five Republican Governors in our modern two-party state. The first, Lindwood Holton, was a liberal Republican anomaly created by the old politics of a conservative Democratic party dominating the Solid South. It wasn't until Mills Godwin and other old conservative Democrats left the GOP that the Virginia Republican Party started to develop as the more conservative of the two parties in Virginia. But Godwin was helped by the rabid populist Henry Howell driving centrists and moderates into the arms of the Republican Party. And to pinpoint Godwin as the start of the modern Republican Party in Virginia creates a dark legacy of establishing the party's modern origins in the roots of Massive Resistance. In the end Godwin, for all of his racial and social conservatism, was the first governor to take Virginia off of its established "pay as you go" approach. In 1976 he backed Ford over the more conservative Ronald Reagan. His successor, John Dalton, is a virtual nonentity in Virginia history.
So having written off the first set of Republican Governors we are forced to turn to the 1990s for the profile of the modern Republican Party in Virginia: George Allen and Jim Gilmore. The early 1990s saw the rise of a Republican Party in Virginia based on cracking the base of rural white Democrats still clinging to a state party despite the march of liberalism to dominate the national Democrat Party. Very quickly, once they saw just how liberal even fellow Southern Bill Clinton would be in office, they abandoned the Democrat Party in droves. Today, Republicans are facing a reverse problem as suburban voters in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads are unhappy with the national image of the Republican Party created by the fiscal mismanagement of George W. Bush. We've seen this story before as those same voters left the Virginia Republican Party for Mark Warner following the end of Jim Gilmore's governorship.
If we don't learn from the mistakes of George Allen Jim Gilmore we'll be doomed once again.
I am a big fan of George Allen and look forward to his return to politics. But he was shackled with a Democratic legislature that forced him to shift away from his tax-cutting agenda later in his term. In 1996 the Cato Institute noted:
In 2000 the Cato Institute took a look at Governor Gilmore's record and warned:
The problem with Virginia's two defining Republican Governors is that neither seriously took on spending.
And so voters, feeling like they had elected Republicans who were spending in Democrats, had no reason not to support Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
If we don't get a Republican Governor who can cut spending and keep taxes low, our party may well be doomed for another decade in Virginia. Private business growth will languish and our state's economy will grow even more dependent on the federal government. Those aren't the types of voters that will support a small government party at the nationally level. If Creigh Deeds wins we'll see more taxes on our businesses and less private sector growth. That alone is reason enough to support Bob McDonnell. He's our last best hope.
This is not the time in our Commonwealth to talk about any kind of tax increase, especially those that are fundamentally regressive and will hit hardest those who are struggling.
Rather, it is the time to put our fiscal house in order, strengthening the Commonwealth for the future.
Now is the time to replenish the “Rainy Day” fund which has bailed several administrations out of deficits, but will be all but depleted for future administrations to have at their avail. It is a time to do everything possible to let the public know that we are serious about getting a handle on spending and controlling it better. Re-examine the efficiency and effectiveness reports, previously administratively commissioned, draw from them, and make this reform agenda further known to the public. It is a time to return to the funding of “necessities” rather than “niceties”.
In the end, Governor Wilder declined to endorse anyone. Is this a victory for McDonnell? I'm not entirely sure. Given that Wilder didn't endorse Deeds in 2005 the status quo would bee a non-endorsement in the race. A Deeds endorsement would be a victory for Deeds and a McDonnell endorsement a victory for McDonnell. The status quo of no endorsement is pretty much a defeat for both candidates. That's just the way it is.
But if Doug Wilder doesn't want to endorse allow me to fill in with my own endorsement.
I am, of course, backing Bob McDonnell for Governor. McDonnell is arguably the last best hope Republicans have for saving Virginia as the Conservative Commonwealth.
It's easy to forget that Virginia has had only five Republican Governors in our modern two-party state. The first, Lindwood Holton, was a liberal Republican anomaly created by the old politics of a conservative Democratic party dominating the Solid South. It wasn't until Mills Godwin and other old conservative Democrats left the GOP that the Virginia Republican Party started to develop as the more conservative of the two parties in Virginia. But Godwin was helped by the rabid populist Henry Howell driving centrists and moderates into the arms of the Republican Party. And to pinpoint Godwin as the start of the modern Republican Party in Virginia creates a dark legacy of establishing the party's modern origins in the roots of Massive Resistance. In the end Godwin, for all of his racial and social conservatism, was the first governor to take Virginia off of its established "pay as you go" approach. In 1976 he backed Ford over the more conservative Ronald Reagan. His successor, John Dalton, is a virtual nonentity in Virginia history.
So having written off the first set of Republican Governors we are forced to turn to the 1990s for the profile of the modern Republican Party in Virginia: George Allen and Jim Gilmore. The early 1990s saw the rise of a Republican Party in Virginia based on cracking the base of rural white Democrats still clinging to a state party despite the march of liberalism to dominate the national Democrat Party. Very quickly, once they saw just how liberal even fellow Southern Bill Clinton would be in office, they abandoned the Democrat Party in droves. Today, Republicans are facing a reverse problem as suburban voters in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads are unhappy with the national image of the Republican Party created by the fiscal mismanagement of George W. Bush. We've seen this story before as those same voters left the Virginia Republican Party for Mark Warner following the end of Jim Gilmore's governorship.
If we don't learn from the mistakes of George Allen Jim Gilmore we'll be doomed once again.
I am a big fan of George Allen and look forward to his return to politics. But he was shackled with a Democratic legislature that forced him to shift away from his tax-cutting agenda later in his term. In 1996 the Cato Institute noted:
Allen's 1996 budget was a complete capitulation to the big spenders in the legislature: the tax cut was abandoned, school spending was increased by nearly $1 billion, and his request for funding for school vouchers was dropped. The budget Allen signed into law increases spending by 6 percent at a time when most other states are cutting spending.
In 2000 the Cato Institute took a look at Governor Gilmore's record and warned:
But Gilmore's budget grade is one of the worst in the nation. The state budget has grown the fifth fastest in the nation: after accounting for increased local reimbursements as a result of the car tax, it rose almost 3 percent faster than population growth and inflation. State spending since 1998 has even grown 2 percent faster than personal income--Virginia has the sixth highest rate of income growth in the nation--during a period when most states have seen state spending shrink as a percentage of residents' wealth. Most of the increased spending was on grades K-12 and state universities, accounting altogether for about 25 percent of his $3 billion in proposed new spending for 2002. Gilmore recently suggested that he may need to put a stop to the car tax repeal if revenue projections aren't met. Yet it is obvious that if spending hadn't ballooned during his term, plenty of money would be left for the car tax cut. His spending hikes could seriously jeopardize the fiscal legacy of Governor Gilmore.
The problem with Virginia's two defining Republican Governors is that neither seriously took on spending.
And so voters, feeling like they had elected Republicans who were spending in Democrats, had no reason not to support Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
If we don't get a Republican Governor who can cut spending and keep taxes low, our party may well be doomed for another decade in Virginia. Private business growth will languish and our state's economy will grow even more dependent on the federal government. Those aren't the types of voters that will support a small government party at the nationally level. If Creigh Deeds wins we'll see more taxes on our businesses and less private sector growth. That alone is reason enough to support Bob McDonnell. He's our last best hope.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Bob McDonnell & Pro-Family Voters
In 1991, following a conservative avalanche in Virginia Beach, then Christian Coalition Executive Director Ralph Reed said of newly elected Delegate Bob McDonnell, "Bob McDonnell is going to Richmond because of Christian and pro-family voters. Period. End of story."
Here is my 2009 reaction to the liberal media and the bloggers gleefully attacking Bob McDonnell for his 1989 thesis on promoting healthy marriages and stable families, "Bob McDonnell is going to Richmond because of Christian and pro-family voters. Period. End of story."
Liberals aren't going to win this election. Christian and pro-family voters are going to win and they are going to win with McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli.
Look back to 1991:
The Democrats are going to need a lot of body bags for November 3rd. They are going to be completely surprised by the mass of Christian and pro-family voters that will turn out on Election Day in defense of Bob McDonnell.
Bob McDonnell, his past, and his current campaign are like a Who's Who of the Christian and pro-family movement in politics. His campaign manager, Philip Cox, was involved in the Faith and Family Alliance, a key political advocacy group linked to Ralph Reed. Faith and Family Alliance also involved Pat Mullins, the new Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. These guys get grassroots politics in a way rivaled only by other long time politicos like Tucker Watkins. Robin Vanderwall, who succeeded Cox as the alliance's executive director, also worked for Bob McDonnell in 1999. He has had some unfortunate legal problems and is in jail serving a seven-year prison sentence for soliciting sex from a minor on the Internet. A few bad apples among McDonnell's associates don't bother me much. Even Jesus had Judas.
Once elected, Bob McDonnell will be facing almost 4,000 appointments to fill. Think of the influence that his pro-family agenda will have through College Boards of Visitors and state agencies. Think of good conservative leadership at our public institutions like the College of William and Mary preventing radical liberals from seizing power ever again. This is an agenda that binds together all Republicans. Even moderate Northern Virginia Republican Tim Hugo said that William and Mary's liberal actions made it a joke. Under McDonnell, we won't have radical liberals in power anywhere in the Commonwealth. College Boards of Visitors will look a lot like Regent and Liberty. Amen.
Here is my 2009 reaction to the liberal media and the bloggers gleefully attacking Bob McDonnell for his 1989 thesis on promoting healthy marriages and stable families, "Bob McDonnell is going to Richmond because of Christian and pro-family voters. Period. End of story."
Liberals aren't going to win this election. Christian and pro-family voters are going to win and they are going to win with McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli.
Look back to 1991:
Robertson Organization Gets Credit for Beach Election Outcome
11 November 1991
The Associated Press
Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition, buoyed by a show of political muscle in Virginia's General Assembly elections last week, will welcome Vice President Dan Quayle at its "Road to Victory" conference on Friday.
The conference "will change the direction of American politics," Robertson said in a letter to supporters last month. "We will discuss strategy for turning out over 20 million pro-family voters in 1992."
The coalition, employing grassroots tactics learned in Robertson's unsuccessful presidential bid in 1988, is being given some of the credit for the victories of Republican candidates in Virginia Beach races Nov. 5.
Republicans won seven of nine races in the city, ousting two incumbents and taking two open seats. Although the coalition doesn't endorse candidates or parties, it pushes a "pro-family" agenda that many GOP candidates follow, said Ralph E. Reed Jr., executive director of the organization.
...
According to Reed, the coalition's work was responsible for the victory of Republican Robert F. McDonnell, a Virginia Beach prosecutor and graduate of Robertson's Regent University, over 20-year incumbent Democrat Glenn B. McClanan in the 84th House of Delegates district.
...
Reed agreed that the coalition tilted the playing field. "I want to be invisible," he said. "I do guerrilla warfare. I paint my face and travel at night. You don't know it's over until you're in a body bag. You don't know until election night.
The Democrats are going to need a lot of body bags for November 3rd. They are going to be completely surprised by the mass of Christian and pro-family voters that will turn out on Election Day in defense of Bob McDonnell.
Bob McDonnell, his past, and his current campaign are like a Who's Who of the Christian and pro-family movement in politics. His campaign manager, Philip Cox, was involved in the Faith and Family Alliance, a key political advocacy group linked to Ralph Reed. Faith and Family Alliance also involved Pat Mullins, the new Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. These guys get grassroots politics in a way rivaled only by other long time politicos like Tucker Watkins. Robin Vanderwall, who succeeded Cox as the alliance's executive director, also worked for Bob McDonnell in 1999. He has had some unfortunate legal problems and is in jail serving a seven-year prison sentence for soliciting sex from a minor on the Internet. A few bad apples among McDonnell's associates don't bother me much. Even Jesus had Judas.
Once elected, Bob McDonnell will be facing almost 4,000 appointments to fill. Think of the influence that his pro-family agenda will have through College Boards of Visitors and state agencies. Think of good conservative leadership at our public institutions like the College of William and Mary preventing radical liberals from seizing power ever again. This is an agenda that binds together all Republicans. Even moderate Northern Virginia Republican Tim Hugo said that William and Mary's liberal actions made it a joke. Under McDonnell, we won't have radical liberals in power anywhere in the Commonwealth. College Boards of Visitors will look a lot like Regent and Liberty. Amen.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Creigh's Cap
Public Policy Polling has the race for Governor in Virginia tightening to 49% for Virginia's next Jobs Governor, Bob McDonnell, to 42% for the Senator from Bath from 51-37 a month ago. I hope my Democratic friends don't work themselves too hard over this improvement that has moved Creigh behind Mary Sue Terry to neck and neck with Don Beyer. Creigh Deeds is facing a cap and it's not just cap and tax.
The exit polls of Virginia during the 2008 election suggest that 13% of the voters said it was their first time voting ever. They favored Barack Obama over John McCain 63% to 35%. These new Obamacons seem uninterested in coming out to vote for Creigh. The latest poll shows a 2009 electoral that favored John McCain over Barack Obama by only 49 to 45. That's far different than last year's six point spread in favor of Obama.
And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor.
So for you English majors out there the first poll had Creigh down 14 points with an electorate that favored McCain over Obama by 11 points. A month later the electorate favored McCain over Obama by 4 points, a change of 7 points. And Creigh? He's now down only 7 points. The change is almost entirely caused by Democrats finally waking up and paying attention to the election. What this means for Creigh is he only has a prayer if the voters this fall actually favored Obama back in 2008. Any sign of Obama fatigue will doom his chances. I've yet to see Creigh generating the same level of energy and activism among college students and African-Americans that Obama did. Creigh's cap is the percentage of the electoral that voted for Obama. He can't do better than that and he'll probably do worse.
The exit polls of Virginia during the 2008 election suggest that 13% of the voters said it was their first time voting ever. They favored Barack Obama over John McCain 63% to 35%. These new Obamacons seem uninterested in coming out to vote for Creigh. The latest poll shows a 2009 electoral that favored John McCain over Barack Obama by only 49 to 45. That's far different than last year's six point spread in favor of Obama.
And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor.
So for you English majors out there the first poll had Creigh down 14 points with an electorate that favored McCain over Obama by 11 points. A month later the electorate favored McCain over Obama by 4 points, a change of 7 points. And Creigh? He's now down only 7 points. The change is almost entirely caused by Democrats finally waking up and paying attention to the election. What this means for Creigh is he only has a prayer if the voters this fall actually favored Obama back in 2008. Any sign of Obama fatigue will doom his chances. I've yet to see Creigh generating the same level of energy and activism among college students and African-Americans that Obama did. Creigh's cap is the percentage of the electoral that voted for Obama. He can't do better than that and he'll probably do worse.
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