The 2010 5th District Republican primary is just days away. Finally, after the months of drama and sitting on the edge of our seats we'll get the answers we've been looking for. This is going to be the biggest Tuesday night since the end of LOST! Is Robert Hurt the big smoke monster? Are the seven candidates actually living in purgatory or hell? I don't know . . . but I do know a few things . . .
Throughout this primary I've been accused of being a paid shill for Verga AND as a cheerleading blogger for Morton. All along I've just done the best I can to be a principled conservative voice. As we go down the home stretch here are a few things to watch on primary night . . . and a few predictions.
Watch Hurt's old Delegate district and his current State Senate district. We've all been expecting him to do well in Pittsylvania and Danville (Nigel Coleman's endorsement of Morton aside), but it will be interesting to watch how other territory Hurt has represented votes. Parts of Campbell County, where local activists have been particularly heated in opposing Hurt, and Franklin County, where I've heard some complaints that Hurt "neglects" the county, will show just how much anger there is against Hurt among people who know him versus opposition to Hurt among groups that just don't know him (the Northern end of the district).
I don't expect Hurt to do well in the Northern end of the district, but he should be able to grab a respectable portion of the vote. I think there are a lot of folks up there who will be voting for Boyd or even Morton not as an anti-Hurt vote but as a pro-My local politician vote. That's why I'll be looking to Franklin and Campbell to figure out just how strong the opposition to Hurt is among conservative activists. Hurt has a perfectly good chance at winning back conservatives in the northern end who vote for Boyd. I'm not as sure about winning over conservatives in his own backyard who vote for McKelvey or someone else.
The rural parts of the district running from Cumberland to Prince Edward to Halifax will be interesting to watch. Will Hurt's direct mail campaign and under the radar approach pay off? Or will McKelvey's own negative mail strategy and sprinkling of TV ads push voters to him?
Finally, I will watch closely to see what Hurt's first steps are after the primary should he win. The only public poll of a Hurt-Perriello contest put the two tied, but Hurt significantly behind should a third party candidate run. I think that clearly describes the dynamic of the 5th District this year. Perriello has the money, the work ethic, and the drive to fight Hurt to the bitter end. A straight Hurt-Perriello race will be close, very close. Hurt cannot afford defections to a conservative third party. In effect, this makes the independent conservatives in the district the swing voters in the campaign, not the mushy centrists that pundits like to claim. If Hurt runs a convincing conservative campaign he wins. If he tries to run to the center as a moderate he will be defeated. That's the perfect scenario for conservatives in the 5th District. It puts the pressure on Hurt to come out swinging on strong conservative issues, instead of being a cautious centrist. Some ideas-
- Supporting the Fair Tax.
- Promising not to request earmarks.
- Reinforcing his no new taxes pledge and focusing on the taxes Perriello has voted to raise.
- Supporting term limits or making a term limits pledge.
- Supporting Arizona's new anti-illegal law and working to secure our borders and impose a moratorium on immigration, as supported by former Congressman Goode.
Showing posts with label Ron Ferrin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ron Ferrin. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Knowing Is Half The Battle!!
Look out! The Republican Primary in Virginia's 5th District is right around the corner! And the politics of the race are getting really interest as a number of boring establishment Republicans managed to win victories in last night's primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina against a divided field of more conservative candidates. The moral of the story? Don't underestimate the ability of big egos to divide the conservative vote!
That there will be seven candidates on the ballot seems to be the only thing we know so far about the primary. Who will win? A lot of people say Robert Hurt. I don't deny that he is the frontrunner, but I do question how overwhelming his campaign is. If the campaign were down to just, say, Hurt and McKelvey, would we really assume that Hurt had this easily? Hurt and Boyd? Hurt and Morton?
At the end of the day, I think most people who vote for Hurt were going to vote for him no matter what and trust him. And at the end of the day, I think most people who don't vote for Hurt were never going to vote for him (in the primary) and the question was/is who they vote for instead.
Hurt obviously has a loyal following and I wouldn't assume that an incumbent State Senator would be showing up to a gun fight with a pencil. But does that make the support Boyd has an Albermarle Supervisor meaningless? Morton from her work in Fluvanna and connections to social conservatives across the district? McKelvey's campaigning across the district?
There's a lot more to the district than just Hurt's State Senate district, which is a fact not only forgotten by Hurt's supporters by Goode's top-down campaign from 2008. Not to blame Goode himself, but someone had to make the decision to run an ad attacking Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" in the media market where his dad had been the doctor for half the kids in the area. Hell, how did you expect "Good Ol' Boy" vs. "Damn Yankee" to play among retirees in Smith Mountain Lake?
Here are some questions to ask when thinking about the primary and watching the results.
1- Hurt may represent a lot of the district as State Senator, but how much of his time has been focused on the non-Pittsylvania/Danville parts of the district? How deep are his roots in Franklin County?
2- How will Hurt be hurt by the Boyers in Campbell County and neighboring Bedford?
3- Between Boyd and Morton, is there any room for Hurt to make ground in the northern counties?
4- I would expect turnout to be light across the rest of the district from Brunswick to Prince Edward to Halifax. In such a low turnout environment, will those counties even matter? And will they be disproportionately effected by dedicated conservative activists?
5- Can Hurt get over 50% of the vote? Anything less seriously endangers him to claims that he won't be able to unite the party. If he wins with 30% of the vote and the support of only Danville and Pittsylvania, how can he unite Republicans behind him? This isn't like running for President were naming a Vice-President can help heal wounds. If Hurt struggles to win shouldn't he make the extra effort to win over conservatives by taking strong stances? Say, supporting the Fair Tax?
That there will be seven candidates on the ballot seems to be the only thing we know so far about the primary. Who will win? A lot of people say Robert Hurt. I don't deny that he is the frontrunner, but I do question how overwhelming his campaign is. If the campaign were down to just, say, Hurt and McKelvey, would we really assume that Hurt had this easily? Hurt and Boyd? Hurt and Morton?
At the end of the day, I think most people who vote for Hurt were going to vote for him no matter what and trust him. And at the end of the day, I think most people who don't vote for Hurt were never going to vote for him (in the primary) and the question was/is who they vote for instead.
Hurt obviously has a loyal following and I wouldn't assume that an incumbent State Senator would be showing up to a gun fight with a pencil. But does that make the support Boyd has an Albermarle Supervisor meaningless? Morton from her work in Fluvanna and connections to social conservatives across the district? McKelvey's campaigning across the district?
There's a lot more to the district than just Hurt's State Senate district, which is a fact not only forgotten by Hurt's supporters by Goode's top-down campaign from 2008. Not to blame Goode himself, but someone had to make the decision to run an ad attacking Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" in the media market where his dad had been the doctor for half the kids in the area. Hell, how did you expect "Good Ol' Boy" vs. "Damn Yankee" to play among retirees in Smith Mountain Lake?
Here are some questions to ask when thinking about the primary and watching the results.
1- Hurt may represent a lot of the district as State Senator, but how much of his time has been focused on the non-Pittsylvania/Danville parts of the district? How deep are his roots in Franklin County?
2- How will Hurt be hurt by the Boyers in Campbell County and neighboring Bedford?
3- Between Boyd and Morton, is there any room for Hurt to make ground in the northern counties?
4- I would expect turnout to be light across the rest of the district from Brunswick to Prince Edward to Halifax. In such a low turnout environment, will those counties even matter? And will they be disproportionately effected by dedicated conservative activists?
5- Can Hurt get over 50% of the vote? Anything less seriously endangers him to claims that he won't be able to unite the party. If he wins with 30% of the vote and the support of only Danville and Pittsylvania, how can he unite Republicans behind him? This isn't like running for President were naming a Vice-President can help heal wounds. If Hurt struggles to win shouldn't he make the extra effort to win over conservatives by taking strong stances? Say, supporting the Fair Tax?
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