Thursday, May 27, 2010

Pat Mullins Undermines GOP

Pat Mullins just made a serious misstep that undermines the ongoing efforts of the Republican Party to defeat both Boucher and Perriello in the fall. And it also brings up additional questions about how serious the campaign against Glenn Nye is. The Republican Party of Virginia launched two new web ads asking if Boucher and Perriello were in attendance when the President of Mexico launched an attack on our 2nd Amendment rights. Great idea, except that both Boucher and Perriello have a pretty solid pro-gun record. Boucher has been endorsed by the NRA. So it's no surprise that the "gotcha" failed.

"I did not attend the speech," Rep. Boucher told The Ticket. "I oppose gun control. And my opposition to gun control has resulted in the National Rifle Assn. endorsing my reelection."

Not only that, adds Boucher spokeswoman Courtney Lamie, he's earned an A+ rating from the NRA.

Oh come on! Then something had to be up with that Perriello guy, right? He wasn't there but surely he was doing something anti-2nd Amendment during the speech. Maybe he was participating in one of those wussy turn-in-the-gun programs. The Virginia GOP could at least bat .500!

Perriello's press secretary, Jessica Barba, laughed when we told her about the ad mentioning that her boss was meeting with constituents during Calderon's speech.

"Shockingly, the ad was not well-researched," she told The Ticket. Barba included a letter to President Obama signed by her boss stating his opposition to Atty. Gen.l Eric Holder's "plan to reinstate the assault weapon ban."

"To even consider reinstating an "assault weapon" ban is an affront to our Founding Fathers, who so clearly understood the importance of the ordinary citizens' right to keep and bear arms," reads the letter.

The serious question isn't why Mullins gave the go ahead of an attack that would so clearly backfire. It's why he ignored Glenn Nye. Is the 2nd District some type of hot bed of gun control activities? Or is the GOP just not serious about taking out Glenn Nye? I've said before that the easy treatment of Nye could foreshadow a potential party switch in the future. This misstep by Mullins keeps the possibility on the table.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Hurt's Money Woes

Politico is reporting that Robert Hurt has stepped up his fundraising strategy against Tommy Perriello. He's raised $115,000 since April 1st, which is about the same that he raised in twice as long during the first quarter of 2010. Of course we should also note that the original reports about Hurt's fundraising in April overstated his haul, which indicates that Hurt could be closer to $110,000 than $115,000. Who can trust him after his habitual lying about fundraising numbers and trusting Democrat Governor Mark Warner on the budget?

Hurt is also reporting $120,000 cash on hand, which is ironically about the same as the $115,000 that Virgil Goode has on hand. And Goode isn't even running! It's good to see that Hurt has stepped up his fundraising and is doubling his previous lackluster pace. But that still puts him well behind Tommy Boy, who is raising money at a record pace. In the same period as Hurt's fundraising, Perriello raised over $278,00, more than double Hurt! Hurt's $120,000 cash on hand is nothing compared to Perriello's $1,550,000 on hand!! Holy cow!

Supporters of Hurt keep on saying that Hurt will have the money to compete against Perriello. But how? Where are the barrels full of cash that will be dumped into the race after the primary? Why hasn't Hurt tapped into them before the primary? It's looking grim for Hurt right now, where's his bailout?!

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Hurt Reveals General Election Strategy Against Perriello

The Republican primary in Virginia's 5th District is still a few weeks away, but State Senator Robert Hurt has revealed a sneak peak into his general election strategy against Tom Perriello. So far, Hurt's primary strategy has been to sit back and try to coast to victory. Don't take my word for it. Even those who gave Hurt the inside track earlier on are questioning his approach to the primary.

Hurt’s got top-shelf strategists working for him, but I’m starting to wonder what the hell they’re thinking. It seems that the strategy is to continue to let Hurt take shots and not playing any defense. He’s not going to sit on the money that he has (is he?) but with the clock running out, when is he going to use it? In the past five weeks, Hurt comes out SLIGHTLY DOWN.

Hurt continues to sit on his money, a sign that he's either in a really comfortable position in the primary despite the questions about his voting record or a fear that he'll need every penny possible against Tommy Boy. I think it's a decision that may cost him the nomination. You can't have your best players sit out a tough playoff game just because you think you'll need them more in the next round. That may guarantee you never get to the next round in the first place!

Maybe Hurt needs to call up Andy Sere to talk to him about what happens when Virginia State Senators assume that their primary is in the bag. In 2007, Andy Sere worked for Republican Tricia Stall after she had defeated incumbent State Senator Marty Williams in the Republican primary. Williams had a voting record similar to Hurt and was facing a lot of conservative opposition over his support for the 2007 transportation deal. But he ignored his opponents and Stall won a narrow primary victory before her campaign imploded and allowed the Democrats to take back the State Senate. Sere, who failed to salvage her campaign, could warn Hurt about the dangers of not taking conservative opposition seriously. But I guess the NRCC isn't returning Hurt's calls right now.

If Hurt wins he faces an almost certain third party threat from Jeff Clark. Hurt's got top-notch advisers and they know that if Hurt continues to try to hammer Perriello on being a big government socialist it will only serve to remind Tea Partier and supporters of Hurt's Republican opponents that Hurt isn't exactly the most loyal of allies in the fight against big government. Instead, he'll have to find issues where Perriello is weaker on and Hurt has less of a record to question.

Two press releases from Hurt today reveals that he's taking that approach.

First, he's announced the endorsement of former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, who now lives in Charlottesville. This isn't the type of endorsement that will make a splash in the primary, but Eagleburger is an important ally in attacking Perriello's liberal agenda of surrendering our national security to Russia and other totalitarian regimes.

I've blogged before about how Perriello is a Manchurian candidate. He talks about jobs, faith, and the like, but in reality his campaign against Goode and his time in office has been little more than a tentacle in the evil empire of chief vampire squid George Soros as he destroys America from the inside. From undermining our friend Israel to coddling terrorists, Perriello's liberal foreign policy agenda is ripe for attack and Hurt's advisers hope it will unite the conservative base after the bitter primary fight.

Second, Hurt has come out swinging at Perriello for standing silent while Obama has nominated an actual traitor to the Supreme Court. I'm not exaggerating. Kagan banned military recruiters at Harvard Law School during a time of war. If that's not treason, defined as giving aid and comfort to our enemies, I don't know what is! It's outrageous, but it's exactly the sort of liberal Ivy League agenda that Kagan and Perriello share.

Now there are two questions. First, will Hurt be able to use this strategy of attack in the general or will he be eliminated in the primary? Second, will this strategy work with the Tea Party movement? Stay tuned . . .

Friday, May 7, 2010

Does Perriello Violate Ten Commandments?

Tom Perriello ran for Congress in 2008 telling everyone that he was a man of deep religious belief and had been called by his faith to service in far off exotic places. He was just a good local boy, one of us, dedicated to helping folks. In Congress, he's managed to keep this act going and is universally declared "pro-life" by the media despite doing absolutely nothing to promote his credentials on the subject. Such easy manipulation of a lazy media is the common Perriello mode of operation. Just check out this Perriello worshiping article from the liberal Washington Post.

Ask freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) what his votes in favor of President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan, cap and trade proposal and health care law mean for him politically and he readily admits he doesn't know.

What he does know is that "people evaluate authenticity", adding: "What people see from me is that I am trying to speak from a place of what makes me tick."

Perriello's authenticity-before-politics mantra has made him a hero to many Democrats -- and a figure of considerable regard in the eyes of the White House -- and simultaneously a top target for Republicans who believe he is voting his own interests and not those of his conservative-leaning 5th district of Virginia.

Yet another article from the liberal media that will be read by out of district liberals about how much of an awesome superhero Tommy Boy is. Look at him, voting his principle while lesser men cower in fear when criticized by Republicans. Look at him stand up for liberal principles over and over again. Why can't everyone else be more like Tommy?

We've heard this before.

This is the exact same treatment that Barack Hussein Obama received every day after his speech before the Democrat convention in 2004. Why can't everyone else be more like Barack? Why can't they speak like Barack? Look like Barack? Obamamania!

So where does Tommy fit into this Obama religion? If Obama is the Messiah, is Perriello Peter? Paul? Hell, ask some of the liberal blogs in love with Tommy and they might argue that Obama is only John the Baptist and Tom's the real deal Messiah!

All this worshiping of Perriello, just like the worship of Obama, is a violation of the Ten Commandments that Perriello claims to take so seriously. Perriello has become an idol to his liberal followers. We might as well plate him in gold!

The sad thing for the God-fearing men and women of the Fifth District is that we know what will happen. Just like Obama had his own cult of personality, Perriello is developing a similar following. Everyone knew that 2010 was going to be a bad year for Democrats because the Obama worshipers from 2008 would have no reason to come out and vote. They care about Obama, not Democrats. But now Tommy Boy has his own following and he may manage to get people to come out not because they like Democrats, but because they worship him. Maybe ACORN workers can serve commune at the polls on election day!

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Knowing Is Half The Battle!!

Look out! The Republican Primary in Virginia's 5th District is right around the corner! And the politics of the race are getting really interest as a number of boring establishment Republicans managed to win victories in last night's primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina against a divided field of more conservative candidates. The moral of the story? Don't underestimate the ability of big egos to divide the conservative vote!

That there will be seven candidates on the ballot seems to be the only thing we know so far about the primary. Who will win? A lot of people say Robert Hurt. I don't deny that he is the frontrunner, but I do question how overwhelming his campaign is. If the campaign were down to just, say, Hurt and McKelvey, would we really assume that Hurt had this easily? Hurt and Boyd? Hurt and Morton?

At the end of the day, I think most people who vote for Hurt were going to vote for him no matter what and trust him. And at the end of the day, I think most people who don't vote for Hurt were never going to vote for him (in the primary) and the question was/is who they vote for instead.

Hurt obviously has a loyal following and I wouldn't assume that an incumbent State Senator would be showing up to a gun fight with a pencil. But does that make the support Boyd has an Albermarle Supervisor meaningless? Morton from her work in Fluvanna and connections to social conservatives across the district? McKelvey's campaigning across the district?

There's a lot more to the district than just Hurt's State Senate district, which is a fact not only forgotten by Hurt's supporters by Goode's top-down campaign from 2008. Not to blame Goode himself, but someone had to make the decision to run an ad attacking Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" in the media market where his dad had been the doctor for half the kids in the area. Hell, how did you expect "Good Ol' Boy" vs. "Damn Yankee" to play among retirees in Smith Mountain Lake?

Here are some questions to ask when thinking about the primary and watching the results.

1- Hurt may represent a lot of the district as State Senator, but how much of his time has been focused on the non-Pittsylvania/Danville parts of the district? How deep are his roots in Franklin County?

2- How will Hurt be hurt by the Boyers in Campbell County and neighboring Bedford?

3- Between Boyd and Morton, is there any room for Hurt to make ground in the northern counties?

4- I would expect turnout to be light across the rest of the district from Brunswick to Prince Edward to Halifax. In such a low turnout environment, will those counties even matter? And will they be disproportionately effected by dedicated conservative activists?

5- Can Hurt get over 50% of the vote? Anything less seriously endangers him to claims that he won't be able to unite the party. If he wins with 30% of the vote and the support of only Danville and Pittsylvania, how can he unite Republicans behind him? This isn't like running for President were naming a Vice-President can help heal wounds. If Hurt struggles to win shouldn't he make the extra effort to win over conservatives by taking strong stances? Say, supporting the Fair Tax?

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Feda Kidd Morton = Jo Ann Davis?

Months ago, I wrote that it was difficult to rule anyone out of the Republican primary because the low turnout will give some candidates a chance despite their poor fundraising.

Cantor spent around $800,000 and won by a nose, 263 votes, against State Senator Martin in a primary that was practically 50%-50%. Martin barely raised $200,000 in the primary and Eric Cantor also had the support of the Republican establishment with the backing of then Governor Jim Gilmore. And he barely, just barely, won.

The story is similar but slightly different in the 1st District that same year, when Jo Ann Davis defeated Paul Jost for the Republican nomination. Jost dropped almost $1 million into the primary, Davis barely spent $100,000. Jost also had the support of Jim Gilmore. But Davis pulled out a victory and went on to serve in Congress.

I also noted why this would particularly help Feda Kidd Morton as the leading candidate of the social conservatives.

Anyone who has worked in local politics knows the difference that social conservatives can make for the Republican Party. I remember talking to my few liberal friends back in the 1990s when social conservatives were making a strong effort to win at the local level on school boards and boards of supervisors. My liberal friends were shocked that such "extremists" were somehow winning by strong margins.

Social conservatives matter because they are active members of their community. They go to church, they are involved in the PTA, their kids play baseball or soccer. They are the neighbor you depend on when you go away and you need someone to feed the cats or just watch the house. When they run for local office everyone knows them. Liberals aren't active in their communities, they don't volunteer, they don't go to church, they don't have families and kids.

With her experience on the school board, Feda Morton knows what it takes to get conservatives involved at the grassroots level. For all of the talk about the Tea Party movement, there's also a wing of the Republican Party that's just as scared by Obama's proposal to allow gays in the military. Or to pass a huge socialist health care package that will fund abortions with your taxpayer dollars. The 5th District has these hard working conservatives, like Tim Boyer over in Campbell County.

Now others are making comparisons to Jo Ann Davis when talking about Feda's campaign. State Delegate Brenda Pogge compared Feda to the former Congresswoman in her endorsement. And I think there is a compelling case to compare how Jo Ann Davis won in her primary by focusing on positive conservative values while two well funded candidates destroyed each other.

Feda may not have the money that other candidates have. She hasn't been a wealthy real estate developer, she's a simple but dedicated teacher. But that may be the difference in the primary. Having the support of dedicated church goers and community members in this low turnout primary could be enough. I don't expect more than the 40,000 to 50,000 voters that came out in the 1st and 7th during similar circumstances. I think victory could come around 15,000 votes or so. Does Feda have that? We'll soon find out.