A Look Back on the 5th, Part Four

Over the next few days, I'll be posting my analysis of the 5th District and point out trends to watch for on election night. Look back at Part One, Part Two, and Part Three.

Have you heard? Are you living in a cave? If not, you've already heard the big news that Barack Hussein Obama will be coming to Charlottesville this Friday to save Tom Perriello like Jesus bring Lazarus back to life. The strange thing is that this miracle may actually work.

As I noted in the first three posts, Survey USA has been the most prolific poll of the 5th District in the past elections. And over and over again they show some odd internals to their polling, even if they've generally been on the money in their final poll. What's fascinating is that they often radically change their assumptions with their final poll and produce results in line with the expectations for the election. That's what happened in 2008 and what may happen in 2010. Will we see one more Survey USA poll showing it a close race, in line with the overwhelming consensus of other polling firms?

First, Perriello is one of the top five recipients of outside support from liberal groups, to the tune of $1.2 million dollars. It's hard to find a vulnerable Democrat who wouldn't kill for that support of outside support, but few are receiving it. If Perriello is so doomed, as Survey USA and Hurtards would like us to believe, why is he getting the big bucks? Democrats may hate America, but they aren't stupid.

The same goes for Barack Hussein Obama. He's not going to waste his time stumping for doomed candidates. A visit by Obama indicates two things. First, that this election is close. Second, that the Democrats actually think Obama could help Perriello.

What gives?

Obama didn't win the 5th District, but Perriello did. Could a visit by Obama alienate independent voters and send them into Senator Hurt's career politician arms. Maybe, but there's also an argument that Perriello sees an Obama visit as a way to gear up the Democrat base in a year in which Republicans are already geared up.

An Obama visit makes sense if you read my first three posts and realize that maybe it's not that the 5th District has contrarian voters, but that it is heavily polarized with few swing voters. With few swing voters, the district won't shift to one party or another as much as the national waves back and forth from 2004 to 2008.

If that's the case, Perriello's only goal is to motivate the Democrat base, especially in Charlottesville. Nothing else matters. We'll see if it works.

Thanksgiving Hiatus & Afghanistan

I took the Thanksgiving week off from blogging and twitter to enjoy time with family, friends, and fowls (turkey!). As the hiatus ends there's a lot to catch up on. And even more to talk about in the weeks ahead. Health care, Afghanistan, jobs, Christmas, and more. Tonight, Barack Obama is scheduled to speak to the nation about Afghanistan. How Republicans and Democrats respond to his speech will heavily impact 2010. One Republican has already come out against the President and in favor of withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Saying it’s time for Republicans to do more than “take pot shots at ACORN,” freshman Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz will call on President Barack Obama on Monday to bring U.S. troops home from Afghanistan.

Chaffetz’s push for a troop withdrawal — to be unveiled in a speech at the Hinckley Institute of Politics in Salt Lake City — runs counter to the position of House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and other leading Republicans in Congress. But it also reflects the divisions within the conference about the question of Afghanistan. Chaffetz told POLITICO the issue “has been probably the most difficult one as a freshman in the minority.”

How many other Republicans will line up with libertarians like Ron Paul and Jason Chaffetz in opposition to the Afghanistan surge proposed by President Obama? Something to watch for in the coming weeks.

A Call to Arms

I have been working under the radar the last week and a lot has gone on that I haven't had a chance to blog about. Another challenger to Tom Perriello has announced. Both Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly are looking at some very impressive fundraising reports from their opponents. It really doesn't look good for Keith Fimian to outraise Gerry Connolly! And the Washington Post decided that since Deeds wouldn't even be in the election at this point without its primary endorsement it might as well go ahead and endorse him in the second round!

There is a lot going on in Virginia politics. But I need to help bring attention to an article than every conservative, Virginian or just American, needs to read. Charles Krauthammer has the most comprehensive attack on Barack Obama's failed presidency that I have ever seen. If you want something that will connect the dots between health care "reform," cap and tax, appeasement to Russia, cuts to the military and space exploration, and the weakening dollar, here you go. It's one thing to follow Obama's actions day by day--that's scary enough! But to see the big picture of how Obama is destroying America, the land of the free and the home of the brave, is a nightmare I wish I could wake up from.

What's great about Kraufthammer is that he throws down the evidence piece by piece. It's all there on the table. For example, we are retreating from space and becoming more dependent on the Russians and Chinese:

Primacy in space--a galvanizing symbol of American greatness, so deeply understood and openly championed by John Kennedy--is gradually being relinquished. In the current reconsideration of all things Bush, the idea of returning to the moon in the next decade is being jettisoned. After next September, the space shuttle will never fly again, and its replacement is being reconsidered and delayed. That will leave the United States totally incapable of returning even to near-Earth orbit, let alone to the moon. Instead, for years to come, we shall be entirely dependent on the Russians, or perhaps eventually even the Chinese.

Don't believe me about the dangers of a resurgent Russia and the growing Chinese Communist Empire? Look at the close ties between the two based on Russia's abundance of natural resources and China's growing need.

The economic cooperation agreement Moscow signed with Beijing at the end of last month will reinforce Russia’s role as a supplier of raw materials to a resurgent China, a pattern that is sparking concerns both about Russia’s industrial base and about Moscow’s effective control of the Russian Far East.

On September 23, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed an economic cooperation accord through 2018, under the terms of which China will help develop Russia’s raw material resources in the Far East and Russia will then export these resources to China for processing into finished goods.

That arrangement, according to experts surveyed in an article published in today’s “Vedomosti,” reflects Russia’s lack of financial and human resources to develop these sites on its own and China’s willingness to do so as long as it Chinese factories rather than Russian ones make the finished goods (www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article/2009/10/12/216003).

Russia's failure to maintain a strong work ethic (decades of Communism will do that to you) means that it is increasingly dependent on China for the investment and manpower to extract its natural resources. China is only too willing to help in return for the raw materials it needs to expand its economy. Russia, China, and a host of their satellite nations are lining up against the United States and Barack Obama is asleep on the job.

My hope is that conservatives will take this as a call to arms and start organizing their friends, family, neighbors and coworkers. I do want to help connect the dots one more time and show a silver lining on the horizon that makes me believe that some, although maybe not all, within the Republican Party are starting to get it. Here is Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty standing up to Obama's appeasement to Russia.

“Not only did President abandon missile defense, but he is opening negotiations with Iran and North Korea. The lessons of history are clear: Appeasement and weakness did not stop the Nazis, appeasement did not stop the Soviets, and appeasement did not stop the terrorists before 9/11,” Pawlenty told a gathering of Christian conservatives at the Omni Shoreham Hotel this evening.

Speaking to attendees at the Values Voters Summit, Pawlenty, who announced earlier this year that he will not seek re-election and is widely mentioned as a prospective 2012 GOP presidential contender, reserved his harshest criticism for Obama’s decision this week to scrap a controversial plan for a missile defense shield in Europe.

Pawlenty’s offensive was geared towards beefing up his record on foreign policy – an area where the two term governor has yet to prove himself.

Much like a Congressional candidate without past political office, Pawlenty's lack of foreign policy experience isn't a negative but an unknown. It's a blank space that needs to be filled in, not a mark against him. He's proving himself a viable candidate for the Presidency by showing that he gets it. Abandoning missile defense is the wrong policy for keeping America safe and security. You don't need years of experience to get that, just some common sense.

But it's also reassuring that Pawlenty is working to surround himself with well respected foreign policy advisers who have consistently gotten it when the rest of the Beltway was pushing appeasement and retreat.

Among those interested in getting to know Pawlenty are Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Randy Scheunemann, two top policy advisers from the McCain presidential campaign who have joined the Minnesota governor’s host committee.

Randy Scheunemann was a key McCain adviser on foreign policy. The mainstream media tried to go after McCain because Scheunemann, who supports a hard line stance against Russia, was also a lobbyist for Georgia--a country invaded by Russia! Russia invades a country in an attempt to rebuild the old Soviet empire and Scheunemann, a consistent opponent of Russia's imperialist agenda, was working to help a country that ought to be our friend and ally. Leave it to the liberal media to decide the real story is Scheunemann's ties to Georgia and not Russian aggression!

I don't know all the skeletons in Pawlenty's closet, but a strong stand against Obama's weakening of America's military is a good start to his 2012 campaign. Even if Pawlenty isn't your candidate for 2012, I hope all conservatives will read Charles Krauthammer's article as a call to arms.