A Look Ahead . . .

In just a day days, voters will go to the polls across the Old Dominion and elect a slate of Congressmen (Yes, Congressmen, sorry Krystal!) who will represent Virginia for the next two years. It will also heavily influence the next round of redistricting that the 2011 General Assembly will have to deal with. While most people are focusing on the fight between the Republican House and the Democrat Senate in redistricting, we can't forget the influence members of Congress will have.

Let's take a quick glance, district by district. I will be following up on the races after the election.

1st: The question everyone has been asking is if Krystal Ball's Halloween outfit will hurt her campaign with the district's voters, or if it's gotten the attention of every red blooded male and angry feminist. After holding off a challenge from his right in the primary (did that pathetic showing by Crazy Crabill even qualify as a challenge?) Wittman has easily locked this seat down after his 2007 special election win. In an ideal world (Republican gerrymandering), Wittman would look to get rid of the Democrat-leaning portions of Prince William County in the 1st (which even supported Deeds in 2009!) and avoid picking up any more of the expensive and Democrat-leaning areas of Northern Virginia. Wittman is well positioned for higher office. This district has a lot of smaller components (Northern Virginia suburbs, Fredericksburg, rural exurbs from Richmond through the Northern Neck, Republican portions of the Peninsula, college city of Williamsburg and its swing suburbs of James City County, etc.) and I think Wittman will be willing to be a team player and adjust parts of the district to shore up Republicans elsewhere.

2nd: Glenn Nye is in a tough election with Scott Rigell, but you'll notice that Obama isn't coming to town for him. And no one is mentioning Glenn for DPVA Chair after the election. Nye's career is toast. Even if he wins, I can't see him surviving a challenge from the left in 2012. He'll be stuck between wanting a safer seat through redistricting and worrying about adding too many liberal Democrat voters to the district. Rigell will also be worried. His district is a swing district and is about to throw out the second incumbent in two elections. He'll need to find a way to pick up Republican voters from neighboring district. I expect Rigell to win on election day, but he'll have to start thinking about 2012 soon.

3rd: Bobby Scott helped cut a deal in 2000 that made most of the representatives in Tidewater happy. Could he sit down with Wittman, Rigell, and Forbes and do it again? The problem is that all three are looking to unload Democrat voters and it's hard to put them all into Scott's district. Also, Scott is young at heart but is already 63. This may be the last redistricting he sees and he might be thinking about a successor. Is there anyone in the General Assembly who could replace Scott and not become a national laughing stock? I'm looking at you, Lionell Spruill and Louise Lucas.

4th: Like Wittman, Forbes is well positioned for a statewide run, if he were to want it. In looking ahead, his only concern in redistricting is that his district surprisingly went to Obama in 2008. Now you can say this was a fluke, but Forbes isn't the type to risk any chances. He'll want to shore up Republican support in his district and avoid the Democrats recruiting a top tier and well funded challenger in 2012 when Obama will be back on the ticket.

5th: The outcome in the 5th District is going to be close, too close for the comfort of likely winner Robert Hurt. I think he'll end up with less than 53% of the vote in what should be an easy walk for Republicans this year against one of the most liberal Democrats in the country. This will send a message loud and clear to Robert Hurt: Get Charlottesville the f'ck out of the 5th. There are two main ways to do this: more all of Charlottesville into another district or split the area up into two or three districts. Which would they prefer? A Perriello win will leave Republicans in a no win situation. If the 5th is made more Republican somehow, Perriello is well positioned for a state wide run. If they make it more Democrat, they'll be stuck with Perriello around for years to come. Which would they prefer?

Here's the irony of a Perriello win: Just like 2008, it will be attributed entirely to Barack Obama. Perriello is going to get almost no credit amount the pundits predicting his defeat if he wins, they will just say it was due to a surge in Democrat voters from Obama's visit. That Perriello had to wage a campaign that kept him close enough to justify an Obama visit will be overlooked. Perriello has been consistently underestimated, which could influence how afraid Republicans are of him during redistricting.

6th: Bob Goodlatte is, along with Wittman and Forbes, one of the solid conservative voices in Virginia. The only problem facing Goodlatte is the delicate situation facing the Roanoke area when Morgan Griffith is elected in the neighboring 9th. Griffith will want to add Salem and his old base, and the 9th will also have to grow to pick up more voters. Goodlatte will want to keep as much of the Roanoke area intact as possible, which may force the 9th into the 5th. But Hurt will want to keep the conservative voters of Franklin County and his historic base in Martinsville and Henry County. It's going to be a complicated situation, much like the dance in Tidewater, but one they should be able to sort out. Hopefully.

7th: Cantor's district is so overwhelmingly Republican he has little to worry about, but there's the possibility that Charlottesville could be pushed into the district. How much is Cantor willing to do to water down the Republican strength in his district to benefit fellow Republicans like Robert Hurt? You have to wonder what a well funded Democrat could do if Charlottesville and its suburbs were combined with the other counties in the Charlottesville media market: Madison, Orange, Louisa. This could be a nuisance that Cantor won't want to deal with, he'd rather be focusing on fundraising for other Republicans and campaigning to support them than putting up with challengers in his own back yard.

8th: How much longer will we have to put up with Jim Moran? Please. Can someone defeat him? Either in the general election (unlikely) or a Democrat primary (anyone have the balls?) Will he ever go to jail where he belongs, or just die in office?

9th: Morgan Griffith is surging in the polls right now and is posed to defeat Rick Boucher over his role in the cap and tax legislation. This is the perfect end to Boucher's career and a warning shot to the remaining Democrats in the Southwest like Roscoe Reynolds and Phil Puckett. You're next. Griffith will want to take Salem and his old legislative district, but I don't think that's enough to match the slow population growth of the 9th. He'll need to pick up more voters and run into the same problem facing Republicans in 2000. Hurt in the 5th won't want to give up his conservative voters in Franklin, Henry, and Martinsville. Goodlatte won't want to give up too much of his home of Roanoke. We'll watch some interesting deals made here.

10th: Frank Wolf has been an elusive target for Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get organized in 2012 to finally mount a real challenge. Wolf's district will need to shrink dramatically to get down to size. It will be difficult to figure out how Wolf can make his district more Republican leaning, or at least not as more Democratic, with the changes across Northern Virginia.

11th: Finally, the 11th. This district kicked out liberal Leslie Byrne in 1994 and it's a good race to watch to see how well Republicans will do in 2010. I think Connolly has the advantage here, but it's one to watch. The Democrats are afraid as shown by their $1 million investment into Gerry at the last second. The outcome could heavily influence the outcome of redistricting and determine who is making the deals. A Connolly win could produce an easy trade between Wolf and Connolly, shore up Connolly, shore up Wolf. A Fimian win would give Republicans headache as they try to negotiate to protect another rookie Republican.

Here are some other issues to consider.

George Allen: A George Allen come back in 2012 is getting a surprising level of Tea Party opposition. Will Bob Marshall be the benefactor or someone else? A lot of establishment types opposed Marshall's 2008 Senate bid because they thought Jim Gilmore was the stronger candidate--HA! If the establishment feels the heat from the Tea Party over George Allen and keeps its concerns about Bob Marshall, look for them to put the pressure on one of Virginia's conservative trio (Wittman, Forbes, and Goodlatte) to run. That could reduce the constraints on Republicans in cutting deals, like Forbes wanting to keep Chesapeake or Goodlatte focused on Roanoke.

Retirements? Will Wolf retire before 2012? What about Goodlatte? Some scenarios are likely, others less so, but a retirement could produce the same result as George Allen not running: an open House seat that the Republicans are free to draw without the concerns of an incumbent. Some scenarios-

Goodlatte Out? A Goodlatte retirement or Senate run (both low likelihood in my book) could allow the 9th to take on more of the Roanoke area, giving up Craig, Covington, and Alleghey to the 6th and Patrick and Henry to the 5th. The 6th would expand to the north to take the western portions of the 10th and take in parts of Charlottesville and Albemarle. The 5th would keep a third or so of the Charlottesville and Albemarle area, but pick up Lynchburg, Amherst, and more of Bedford. The 7th would pick up the remaining portions of the Charlottesville area, probably giving up more of Hanover and the Richmond areas to Wittman in the 1st.

Forbes Out? A Forbes retirement or Senate run (I'd like to see a Senate race focused on Webb's failure to stand up to Obama's anti-military policies) could free the Republicans to give more of Chesapeake to the 2nd to beef up Rigell. The 4th would then need to pick up more of the Richmond suburbs from the 7th, and the 1st could probably benefit from parts as well. This doesn't touch on fixing the 5th, but could be compatible with parts of the Goodlatte scenario as well.

Perriello Wins- Accept It A Perriello victory and the Democrat Senate could force the Republicans to accept a deal that gerrymanders the 5th to Perriello's favor. He'd pick up more of the suburbs in Louisia and Orange. While not exactly deep blue, they are liberal bastions compared to the Southside parts of the 5th right now. He could pick up more African-American voters from the 4th, a relief for Forbes and the Republicans. Look for the Republican portions of the 5th to go to the 9th.

Perriello Wins- Reject It Another outcome of a Perriello victory could be a logjam between Democrats and Republicans over the Congressional redistricting. Instead of cutting a deal, Republicans might decide they are fine with the current boundaries, for the most part, and are willing to let a judge slightly redraw them for population. I don't think that most of the Republican members like Wittman, Rigell, Forbes, and Griffith would be happy, they have particular agendas that a judge would likely ignore. But maybe it's worth it if the 5th stays moderately Republican?

These are just a few things to consider as you're watching election returns on Tuesday night. Good luck to the conservatives running!

Does Robert Hurt Have a Cocaine Problem?

After reflection, soul searching, and prayer, I have decided to bring forward information on Senator Hurt's past that, so far, the press has either been ignorant of or has decided to ignore. In either scenario, lackluster reporters like Catherine Amos and Janelle Rucker have let down the public by failing to reveal important facts about Senator Hurt, the man and his character.

Hurtards like to think that Senator Hurt is just a local Southside boy. They ignore that he was born into wealth and spent most of his early childhood either in New York City or at one of the nation's most elite and privileged boarding schools. After attending a series of safety private schools to satisfy the claim that he has a degree, he began to practice law in Pittsylvania County. But with his background of power and privilege, how much work does Senator Hurt actually do at his law firm? And who does he work for?

In at least two cases, Senator Hurt served as the attorney for criminals involved in crack cocaine dealing. This supposed man of character and integrity decided that defense of drug dealers in Southside Virginia was the best use of his talent and resources.

The first is related to a large drug bust of a crack cocaine ring in the New River Valley. Senator Hurt represented one of the men involved in this ring, Gregory Smith, who was eventually sentence to 13 years in prison for his role. And what was part of Smith's role?

Ashley Nicole "Red" Franklin's boyfriend, Gregory Douglas "Binky" Smith, introduced her to cocaine when she was 16. Franklin, 19, later became an addict and a distributor.

Interestingly, the original article from the Roanoke Times outlining Senator Hurt's role in defending Smith is no longer available through their website, while the original outlining about the cocaine ring from an earlier date is still up. Here is the transcript of the article linking Senator Hurt to a drug dealer who addicted a young teenage girl to crack cocaine.

MAN GETS 13 YEARS FOR ROLE IN DRUG RING

A federal judge sentenced a Radford man to more than 13 years in prison in connection with his participation in a large crack cocaine ring in the New River Valley.

Judge Samuel Wilson said that he took Gregory Smith's extensive criminal history into account as part of the sentence. Smith, 31, is the first of 11 defendants to be sentenced in connection with thering. Federal authorities have argued that at its height, the ring trafficked 1 to 5 kilograms of crack and powder cocaine per month into the New River Valley.

All of the defendants in the case have pleaded guilty to drug conspiracy charges, except the alleged ringleader, Richard Lamont Lighty.

Wilson also said he took into consideration the argument by Smith's attorney, Robert Hurt of Chatham, that Smith was a minor player in the drug conspiracy.

Smith, already in custody on state charges, will have to serve his federal sentence consecutively, Wilson said. He also fined Smith $1,000.

Does Senator Hurt still believe that addicting young girls to crack cocaine is a "minor" part of the drug trade? The only thing "minor" here was the age of the girl when her life was ruined by illegal drugs.

In a second case, decided earlier this year, Robert Hurt represented a convicted criminal, Alpheus Spencer Adams, involved in the cocaine trade. Here Senator Hurt was representing a criminal attempting to use the appeals system to get his conviction overturned on a technicality, and the courts rightly ruled against these shenanigans.

I am disgusting that the media in the 5th District has been unable to perform its minimal task of looking into the background of candidates for public office. Jeff Clark's name has been dragged through the mud, but no one has even touched Robert Hurt's record. This is just the first step in revealing the true Robert Hurt.

A Look Back on the 5th, Part Four

Over the next few days, I'll be posting my analysis of the 5th District and point out trends to watch for on election night. Look back at Part One, Part Two, and Part Three.

Have you heard? Are you living in a cave? If not, you've already heard the big news that Barack Hussein Obama will be coming to Charlottesville this Friday to save Tom Perriello like Jesus bring Lazarus back to life. The strange thing is that this miracle may actually work.

As I noted in the first three posts, Survey USA has been the most prolific poll of the 5th District in the past elections. And over and over again they show some odd internals to their polling, even if they've generally been on the money in their final poll. What's fascinating is that they often radically change their assumptions with their final poll and produce results in line with the expectations for the election. That's what happened in 2008 and what may happen in 2010. Will we see one more Survey USA poll showing it a close race, in line with the overwhelming consensus of other polling firms?

First, Perriello is one of the top five recipients of outside support from liberal groups, to the tune of $1.2 million dollars. It's hard to find a vulnerable Democrat who wouldn't kill for that support of outside support, but few are receiving it. If Perriello is so doomed, as Survey USA and Hurtards would like us to believe, why is he getting the big bucks? Democrats may hate America, but they aren't stupid.

The same goes for Barack Hussein Obama. He's not going to waste his time stumping for doomed candidates. A visit by Obama indicates two things. First, that this election is close. Second, that the Democrats actually think Obama could help Perriello.

What gives?

Obama didn't win the 5th District, but Perriello did. Could a visit by Obama alienate independent voters and send them into Senator Hurt's career politician arms. Maybe, but there's also an argument that Perriello sees an Obama visit as a way to gear up the Democrat base in a year in which Republicans are already geared up.

An Obama visit makes sense if you read my first three posts and realize that maybe it's not that the 5th District has contrarian voters, but that it is heavily polarized with few swing voters. With few swing voters, the district won't shift to one party or another as much as the national waves back and forth from 2004 to 2008.

If that's the case, Perriello's only goal is to motivate the Democrat base, especially in Charlottesville. Nothing else matters. We'll see if it works.

"Conservative" Jim McKelvey: Off the Rails!

The Perriello campaign has released a great new ad hitting Robert Hurt with the words of his own Republican primary opponents:



Now those very same opponents are angry that Perriello is using their own words against Senator Robert Hurt. Throughout the campaign multiple pundits, bloggers, and commentators noted that the primary field against Hurt was full of amateurs and first time candidates who couldn't really wage a serious campaign. I defended them, but I have to say this episode clearly demonstrates the naivete of McKelvey, Morton, McPadden, and others.

Did the group of them really believe they could get away with this rhetoric without having it used against Senator Hurt? Let's not forget the DCCC web video against Hurt right after the primary, which had more of the attacks on Senator Hurt's eight year record of raising taxes.



Over and over again, candidates like McKelvey made crystal clear that they were so strongly opposed to Senator Hurt they would refuse to endorse him in the general election. After the primary, all of Hurt's Republican opponents fell in line to endorse him. Why were their minds so easily changed? Perhaps because they never really opposed Hurt that much, they were just desperate for traction and support in the Republican primary. This is offensive to the voters. We deserve true conservative champions who will stick to their ideals. The entire field against Hurt has demonstrated that they were just saying anything to get support and are not to be trusted. I will actively work to defeat them in any future Republicans primaries, should they have the foolishness to try to run again.

McKelvey stands out for his particularly lies and deceit. This supposed conservative champion sent out a press release against Tom Perriello for his campaign attacks on Hurt. Here's a portion:

Tom Perriello uses my name (and a prior press release of mine) as the "factual" basis to falsely state that Robert would do away with 400 teacher jobs, cut funds for college scholarships, increase personal property taxes, allow unsafe products to come into our country from overseas, or somehow send jobs overseas to China. This is a blatant lie on Perriello's part. These false statements clearly show that Congressman Perriello will do anything to get elected, and that he is willing to stoop so low as to lie to his fellow citizens, because he wrongly believes that such lies will win him the election. Mr. Perriello has shown here in the last days of this important election that he completely lacks the honesty, character, and integrity required to lead us here in the 5th District. The only candidate who possesses the honesty, character and integrity to lead us as our next congressman is Robert Hurt.

I have a questions for Jim McKelvey, which I doubt he's man enough to answer.

You campaigned against unconstitutional government agencies and forced Hurt to sign a pledge to defund these agencies. Which are they? Senator Hurt has already shamelessly claimed that he won't do anything to cut Social Security and Medicare, the two largest entitlement programs causing our nation's fiscal crisis. Do you agree that these programs are constitutional? If Medicare is constitutional, how is the rest of Obamacare not constitutional? If you can be forced to pay into a Ponzi retirement scheme like Social Security against your will, isn't the mandate of Obamacare also constitutional?

The Register & Bee is Wrong

Today, the Register & Bee culminated its months of biased coverage in favor of career politician and chronic tax raiser Robert Hurt with a weak, hollow, empty endorsement of his campaign for Congress. The reason, as far as I can tell, is that they have been convinced that his victory would somehow balance the budget.

The wasteful spending in Washington reveals a fundamental problem that must be addressed at the ballot box. The balance of power between Republicans and Democrats is so skewed right now that it has been impossible to reach a political consensus. Instead, it has left us with divisions that have nearly destroyed our system.

Only through bipartisan compromise can we heal that rift. Only by sending Republicans like Hurt to Congress can we accomplish that.

Consider that economists now believe the recession ended last summer. If that’s true, then by next summer, we should actually notice an improvement.

When that happens, the increased tax revenues will help to chip away at the federal budget deficit. But if Congress is allowed to spend that new money, then we’ll be no better off than we are today.

The Register & Bee has demonstrated that its entire staff has the intellect of Catherine Amos. The problem with the deficit was not created overnight by Obama, Reid, Pelosi, and Perriello. It was a bipartisan effort of first Republicans and then Democrats. And the problems in the future with increased spending comes from an entitlement system, particularly Social Security and Medicare, that is going to explode with the retirement of the Baby Boomers.

Robert Hurt's signature issue of the campaign has been to attack Tom Perriello for cuts to Medicare. He's attacked Perriello for not saying enough to protect and defend Social Security. Senator Robert Hurt is not serious about balancing the budget. Just today, the Lynchburg News & Advance published candidate responses on balancing the budget. Just like in the debate, Senator Hurt couldn't come up with a single specific program to cut.

It's bizarre, but Perriello's support of a bipartisan commission that will likely suggest cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other big programs, combined with his willingness to put everything on the table, including bloated defense spending, makes him more fiscally conservative than Senator Hurt.

If that makes you feel like this election has come down to a choice between two evils, don't despair. There is a conservative candidate for office, Jeff Clark! On November 2nd, vote Jeff Clark for a conservative voice for the 5th District.

Senator Hurt Flip-Flopping to Election Day

Want a clear sign that the election is just two weeks away?

Watch Senator Hurt flip-flop on issue after issue trying to pander to voters in his race against Tom Perriello.

First, he's flip-flopping on trade and coming out against a trade deal with South Korea that's been supported by both President Bush and President Obama. This is just days after his stuttering performance in the WSLS debate where he was unable to name one issue where he would break from his party. After receiving heat from Perriello for not opposing the trade deal, his handlers have decided that they need Hurt to change his position from waffling to solidly opposed. Norman Leahy has more on the bipartisan idiocy in opposing this trade deal.

So now Hurt finally has an issue where he can claim he disagrees with his party. Good for him. And he's come around to supporting the same job killing, protectionist stance of his opponent, Tom Perriello. Great. Now with either candidate we'll have someone in office who will vote against job creation and innovation.

But that's not good enough. Senator Hurt wants to do more to run our economy into the ditch, again, and end job creation in Virginia. So he's now adopted the anti-uranium mining position of his environmentalist opponent.

Hurt, he said, is also on record as opposing the lifting of the state uranium-mining ban. Both these positions, LaCivita noted, are consistent with Perriello’s views.

First off, if Hurt is opposed to lifting the uranium-mining ban, why did he vote for a study to assess the potential for uranium-mining? I guess he was for it before he was against it! Senator Hurt's opposition to uranium mining means fewer jobs for Southside Virginia. It means retarding the development of the nuclear energy industry around Lynchburg. It means continued dependency on Russia for our uranium needs. Senator Hurt, you should be ashamed for flip-flopping on this issue and putting your election ahead of economic growth for Southside.

How many more flip-flops can Senator Hurt perform before Election Day?

Candidates' Personal Lives

A few weeks ago, I was provide with a few fascinating leads into the personal life of Senator Robert Hurt. At the time, I followed up on the leads and decided that while probably true, they didn't provide enough reason to bring them to light at this time. Already Senator Hurt had tried to drag Jeff Clark's name through the mud, but I felt like this blog would take the high road and stay away from the dirty politics of personal attacks. I also had hopes that the media in the 5th District would finally step up and perform its duty as the watchdog of the public good.

Well, this is what I get for living democracy in the hands of Catherine Amos and Janelle Rucker.

Now that the press has decided that Tommy Boy's driving lesson is the most important issue in the campaign, I have been contacted by a few people who I informed about this information regarding Senator Hurt. With the election days away, they are encouraging me to put out into the public some overlooked episodes in Hurt's past. This is the only way to ensure that the public can make an informed decision.

I have consistently criticized Tucker Watkins for his decision to attack Tom Perriello as a "New York Lawyer" during the 2008 campaign. Tucker continues to be a gossip mongering spreading absurd lies about Tommy Boy. But I've also been told that the Hurt campaign has also been participating in whisper campaigns against their Democrat opponent, not just his geographic origins but his sexual orientation. This sort of scorched earth politics may be natural for Senator Hurt's highly paid Washington consultants, but it's not how we do things in Virginia.

I have not decided yet if I am going to discuss the information I've been provided about Senator Hurt. But I want to make clear that the tone of this entire election has been offensive.

DCCC Hanging Onto Perriello

With all of the back and forth over the election, debates over the issues, and accusations of flip flopping, it's hard to keep focus on what really matters.

Demonstrating to people that I'm right and they are wrong.

A few months ago the blogosphere was a buzz with the news that the DCCC had decided to cut off vulnerable Democrats like Tom Perriello and Frank Kratovil. I called this out as absurd reporting by the Washington Post and totally wrong.

The list of vulnerable Democrats is based not on an internal statement by the DCCC, but by the journalist's own guess work. We know this as a fact. How? Because it includes Frank Kratovil of Maryland. DCCC Head Chris Van Hollen of Maryland is NOT going to indicate that they are cutting off his fellow Maryland Democrat. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is NOT going to give up on saving Kratovil. End of story.

The same is true of Perriello. Tommy Boy is the White House's favorite Democrat. They are not going to give up on him. The more people talk about Perriello being cut off, the lazier Robert Hurt's already lackluster campaign will become. Believing this crap is dangerous and could cost Hurt the election.

Well where are we now? Months later?

National Democrats are still pouring money into the reelection bids of freshman Reps. Tom Perriello (Va.), Glenn Nye (Va.) and Frank Kratovil (Md.), even as the party has largely given up on some other candidates facing similarly tough races across the country.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has drawn attention by canceling its reservations for advertising time in a handful of districts where the committee believes its chances are dwindling, shifting its resources to more winnable races.

But although Kratovil, Perriello and Nye all regularly appear on lists of the most endangered incumbents in the country, the DCCC appears to believe they still have a fighting chance and has spent more than $1.5 million combined on the three contests.

I CALLED IT!!!

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Of the vulnerable Democrats mentioned in September, I specifically objected to Perriello and Kratovil. Now, with days to go, the DCCC has cut off the other vulnerable liberals mentioned in the Washington Post story but continues to cling to Perriello and Kratovil. I CALLED IT!

Robert Hurt, Chronic Liar?

The fund raising numbers for the Perriello and Hurt campaigns are in . . .

Perriello's campaign said it will report raising $810,000 in that time frame, giving him $1.3 million on hand in the final stretch of the contest, which is one of the most closely watched races in the country.

Hurt's camp said it will report raising more than $900,000 in the same period, making it the strongest fundraising showing so far for Hurt, who is running neck and neck in the polls with Perriello. Jeffrey A. Clark, an independent running in the 5th, has not reported.

Hurt out raising Perriello by a solid $90,000, if not more once the numbers come out? That's impressive for the lackluster challenger.

Wait, you say that the FEC numbers show Hurt raising less than $900,000? Only $891,769? Well I guess he's allowed to be generous in rounding, but shouldn't he say "almost $900,000" instead of "more than $900,000?"

We've been here before.

Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, led the crowded GOP field with $101,110 worth of donations.

Hurt’s total was a bit less than the $105,000 his campaign told The Daily Progress in an interview Thursday evening for a story that appeared Friday.

This is the second time that Hurt has exaggerated his fund raising claims. Is career politician and chronic tax raiser Senator Hurt also a chronic liar? Or does his campaign just not know how to count?

Hurt's Bailout, And You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

Back in February, I noted that Senator Hurt's lackluster fundraising was going to cause serious problems for GOP plans to knock off Tom Perriello. A bailout of Hurt by Washington special interests was bound to happen if Hurt didn't kick up his fundraising on his own. He bled himself dry winning a Republican primary that should have been a cake walk for any standard conservative candidate. In May, we noted that Hurt continued to struggle and had about as much on hand as former Congressman Virgil Goode, who wasn't even running. We've been waiting for this Hurt bailout, and I explained the possible forms it would come:

This will mean more funneling of corporate and lobbyist money into Hurt's campaign. He needs a major cash infusion and it doesn't matter where it is from. With the cap on maximum contributions, look for Hurt's campaign to try new and desperate tactics. Perhaps LaCivita will pioneer the use of "independent" corporate ads in the post-Citizens United era. . . .

How long until some of Hurt's big donors are running ads in the Republican primary defending him? I have nothing wrong with corporations expressing free speech, just like George Soros is free to give money to Tommy Boy. But when Soros does it we know who really owns Tommy's vote. So let's not pretend that Hurt is anything but a tool of the big corporations that depend on Washington for bailout money when the corporations pick up the slack to give him the nomination.

I was wrong to think that Hurt needed the bailout to save his ass in the primary, but it seems true that the Washington establishment is pulling out all the stops to get Hurt elected. The NRCC has been spending heavily on this race. And the NRCC isn't the only outside group spending money. The US Chamber of Commerce has also gotten involved, but there are some serious questions about their funding.

Here is the story, plain as day. The UC Chamber of Commerce has one bank account for all of its activities. Money goes on, money comes out. The money that goes in isn't tracked or accounted for in anyway. It's a slush fund. Money comes in from foreign companies, some of them owned by foreign countries, hoping to influence the US political process through the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber tells us not to worry because they don't use this money for running political ads, which would be illegal. But the fact is we don't know.

When President Obama and Speaker Boehner bring new free trade deals to the floor, they'll go to then Congressman Hurt and explain that while this is just more of the same job-killing outsourcing that Southside has experienced for decades, they need his vote. After all, they financed his campaign against Tommy Boy in the first place. They'll call in their favor . . .

Of course this isn't the only bailout happening in the 5th District. Perriello is in the fight of his life and his friends and allies are on the air too. The DCCC is running ads attacking Senator Hurt. Perriello's union and environmental friends have done polling on the race and I expect them to join the fight on TV soon too.

Who else?

None other than George Soros.

The media has finally decided to start reporting on Soros, an infamous opponent of Israel, bankrolling the new liberal "Jewish" lobbying group J STret. Just like the Chamber hiding its contributions from foreign companies, J Street was hiding its contributions from an avowed opponent of Israel. I've blogged about the connection between Soros, J Street, and Perriello before. As I said then, Perriello is at the vanguard of a radical revolution trying to tear down America's hegemony and put our national security in the hands of the UN and other international bodies. He is not a pawn in this game. He's one of the leading fighters.

When will some Soros funded group enter into the 5th District of Virginia? When will we see ads run by "Virginian Families United For Virginia Values in Virginia" or something absurd like that defending Perriello?

It's sad that the 5th District race is coming down to these two candidates. There is no doubt that Hurt will be a lapdog of the Republican establishment that brought us the deficit spending of the Bush years that culminated in the Wall Street bailouts. He will not be a friend to the Tea Party conservatives like Coburn and DeMint. But on the other side Perriello, who has demonstrated a great degree of independence on cultural and social issues, but who is at the forefront of destroying Israel and retreating from America's place at the top of the pack in the world.

Hurt Campaign Meltdown!

Egg is all over the face of supposed "expert" Larry Sabato for saving that the momentum is behind Robert Hurt in the race in Virginia's 5th District. Since that time several polls have come out showing that Perriello is still solidly in the game. Sabato and his aide Isaac Wood are trying to cut the baby in half between the bogus Survey USA polls and the other polls in the race which have shown a much, much closer election. Wood estimates a six point race, which is the highest any non-Survey USA poll has shown the race and that was created by Republican polling firms specifically excluding Jeff Clark from the poll. If the most that Hurt can post without Clark being polled is six points, it's a lot closer than that!

Fresh on the heels of a poll from Tommy Boy's environmentalist and union friends showing it a one point race, which was dismissed as just another "biased" Democrat poll, comes a truly independent, nonpartisan poll from the professional publication The Hill. They are polling key races across the country and find Perriello to be among the best positioned incumbent Democrats in their poll! He is behind by one point without even including Jeff Clark in the poll, which could knock off Hurt by three or four points! Could Perriello actually be leading?!

Perriello's Plan for Victory

Tom Perriello is giving free rides to the polls for UVA Students.

Remember how close he won last time? His trial lawyer supporter John Grisham does.

Perriello won that election by 727 votes over former Rep. Virgil Goode “after they found some missing ballot boxes in Charlottesville,” Grisham said to chuckles from the crowd.

Actually, the votes that put Perriello over the top were absentee ballots that Charlottesville election officials didn’t count until after Election Day.

There were multiple rumors of voter fraud in Charlottesville in 2008, although the Obama Justice Department never seemed to get around to investigating them. Too busy with the Black Panthers I guess. Perriello is preparing the steal the election through the UVA student vote, bringing up the question why college students are allowed to vote in Charlottesville in the first place. Why hasn't this been fixed at the state level?

Hurt Blowout or Tied Race?

We are entering the last month of the election cycle and the whining from the two major candidates has reached historical levels. While Hurt complains about his treatment by the media, Perriello has started to complain about the constant stream of SurveyUSA polls showing him toast. Where's the beef? Not with either one of these so-called men.

Before this, it was Twittergate. Before that was the debate over debates. Complaints over the times of Tommy's Town Halls. Jeff Clark's finances. Threats to Perriello's family. And so forth. And so on.

A lot of style, a lot of drama, and not a lot of substance.

If we actually look at the polling numbers, instead of just throwing a Tommy Temper Tantrum, we might begin to realize why this election has been so emotional, so dramatic, but so substance-less.

Eight months ago, back in February, the first public poll of the race in VA-05 was released by Public Policy Polling. They showed the election, before the Republican primary and much of Hurt's rise in name recognition, at 44% to 44%. TIED. Dead even.

Think about that. On the one hand, Hurt was a virtual unknown to the district outside of the areas he had represented. The primary campaign had barely gotten under way. Certainly this meant he had room to grow?

But this was after a year of even more drama and emotion directed at Perriello. Forged letters. Effigy burnings. Cap and tax. Health care takeover. Town halls. A failed stimulus. After the worst Democrat President since Jimmy Carter, Tommy Boy was still tied? Certainly this meant he could mount a come back once he had a clear opponent to attack?

The biggest problem for the Perriello camp was the makeup of the poll. The February PPP poll was of registered voters, not likely voters. It represented the district as a whole, not the people motivated enough to get off their asses and vote. It showed a district that went narrow for McCain, not heavily Republican like past elections in 2004, and 2000, and 1996 and . . . you get the idea.

As soon as pollsters started screening out unlikely voters, the first time Obama voters like college students at UVA or African-Americans in Danville, a gap was bound to open up between Hurt and Perriello.

But the poll had some good news for Perriello. Throw in a third party candidate with Tea Party values and suddenly Hurt was down to 27% and the Tea Partier got 19%. Perriello was unchanged at 44%. Once a third party candidate announced against Hurt, a clear result of his primary win, and it was possible for Perriello to open up a gap against Hurt. Or at least hold it close.

What has happened?

Let's take a look, without Survey USA. I'll address them later.

The next we have is in late July. Five months later, the Republican polling firm Ayres, McHenry & Associates showed Hurt with a six point lead. Hurt was up to 49% and Perriello down to 43%. The poll's internals show a more conservative, more Republican electorate than the representative sample from PPP. The infamous enthusiasm gap strikes!

But this poll excluded independent candidate Jeff Clark. I know that the betrayal of conservative values by Jim McKelvey and others has hurt Clark's chances, but he should at least have been included in the poll. With Clark polling at around 6 to 4 percent in other polls, this could have cut down Hurt's margin over Perriello in half or even eliminate it.

Also worth noting is that even in this more conservative, more Republican voting sample, Perriello is still at 43%. That leads me to believe that a poll taken at the same time of registered voters, not just likely, would put him over the 44% that PPP found. If the poll included Clark, I suspect it could have shown a small, low digit edge for Perriello. Perriello's ads were making a difference among the public at large, but he's like a salmon swimming up stream against the enthusiasm gap. Right into the mouth of Robert the hungry grizzly bear.

A month later, in late August, we have a Democratic polling firm, Global Strategy Group, showing a two point race. Here Hurt is down to 44%, Perriello is 42%, and Clark is at 6%. This is roughly what I'd expect from the Ayers poll if it had included Clark. Almost no movement.

A few weeks later, in mid-September, the Perriello campaign released their own poll from Benenson Strategy Group showing . . . . you guessed it, a two point race. Hurt is at 46%, Perriello at 44%, and Clark at 4%. This is virtually identical to the Global Strategy Group poll. And virtually identical to what Ayers should have shown with Clark included.

And all of them are about what we would have expected from PPP's February poll if we took their poll of registered voters and modified it for (1) the enthusiasm gap among likely voters favoring Republicans and (2) Clark being on the ballot, but not getting as much support as he could if Jim "Judas" McKelvey and other hadn't changed their mind and broken promises.

So here we are at the start of October. And the race, as far as I can tell, is exactly where it was in February.

I'm reminded of what the good folks at Southside Central predicted right after the Republican primary:

First prediction on the general election vote percentage: Hurt 48%, Perriello 48% Clark 4%. If McKelvey throws his support behind Hurt, it becomes Hurt 49+%, Perriello 49+%, Clark <2%.

First OddsMakers on the general election winner: Hurt 50%, Perriello 50%, Clark 0%. Yep, it’s a fresh start and a toss-up right now.

Ain't that the truth?

Everything that you've read about in the newspapers for the past eight months has been meaningless. The debates, the talk about style, all of it. Everything.

And here is why I'm not mentioning Survey USA. Here's what the campaign looks like if you included Survey USA.

February: The race is tied before polling shifts to likely voters. (PPP)
Mid August: Hurt has surged to a 23 point lead as the polling shifts to likely voters. (Survey USA)
Late July: Perriello has mounted a comeback and is down by 6 without Clark included, potentially down by two or three with Clark included. (Ayers)
Late August: Perriello's comeback settles out at two points behind. (Global)
Later August: Perriello's campaign collapses and he's behind by 26! (Survey USA)
Mid September: The come back kid, Perriello has recovered and is behind by 2. (Beneson)
Late September: Once again race shifts and Hurt is back up by 23 points! (Survey USA)

Seriously? Is the district really swinging back and forth that much?

I don't think so.

Survey USA is clearly polling an entirely different reality in its assumptions about turnout in VA 05 this year. If it was just Survey USA against one polling firm, I could see the argument to split the difference. But four against one?

I think Tommy's a crybaby to go to the press with complaints against Survey USA, but the argument that they are showing an absurdly high number of early voters--a mathematically impossible high number--is persuasive. Survey USA seems to be pre-choosing voters to call and then adding a likely voter screen, something that may come up with a scenario that has an impossibly high enthusiasm gap benefiting the GOP.

If you average together the Survey USA polls (around a 24 point lead for Hurt) and the three other likely voter polls (without correcting for Ayer's excluding Clark) and average it out, you get about a 8.5% gap. Which is, from earlier Tweeting, what Nate Silver had predicted for Perriello's defeat in VA-05.

Nate gives Perriello a 88% chance of being defeated. Not surprising if you assume an 8 point spread. Nate doesn't post the House numbers, but he notes that Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates ahead by six to eight points end up winning 89% of the time. About what he has for Hurt against Perriello.

I entirely respect a model that treats all pollsters fairly. But I think it's clear that something is clearly off with Survey USA this year in VA 05. Nate hasn't discussed specific House races yet, but I'd love to know if there is any other House race this year that has such a high variance between polls. Survey USA is clearly an outlier and by a huge margin. Is this seen anywhere else in the country?

What if we were to pull it from the batch? I don't know all of the calculations in Nate's House predictions, but I'll just put out this guess. The remaining polls would average out at about 3.3, which would put the race in the 3-6 range and give Perriello a 79% chance of defeat. But if you were to try to fix the Ayers poll to include Clark you'd get closer to 1.7 or 2 depending on how much including Clark narrowed the gap. That puts you within a 55% chance of defeat, if not better for Perriello to hold on. In other words? About even.

This district is narrowly divided right now. The election isn't going to change many minds. It never was. All this talk about independents, moderates, and swing voters is bullshit.

This election was always about who could unite conservatives and keep them energized. Hurt's campaign has failed on two fronts. His vote for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia alienated true conservatives who weren't drunk of the GOP Kool Aid. His lackluster campaign has failed to energize people outside of his traditional base of supporters. Just being a Republican in a bad year for Democrats may still be enough for Robbie. But he's made this election closer than it should be and Perriello still has a shot at pulling this out.

Hurt's Carpetbagging Team Repeats Lies

Today, Robert Hurt announced that he would decline yet another public debate with Tom Perriello because he is afraid of Jeff Clark. Add to the list of groups Hurt is not snubbing THE AMERICAN LEGION. That's right folks, Hurt doesn't want to talk to veterans who have risked their lives for our country and our freedoms. For shame!

Of course that didn't stop Hurt's carpetbagging team to include the lie, again, that Hurt has participated in "dozens" of public debates.

"Dozens?"

How does Amanda Henneberg live with herself knowing that she's selling her soul to whoever is paying her salary? Having worked for Charlie Crist, has she given up any sense of human decency and is willing to repeat any lie that he bosses tell her to say?

Robert Hurt has not participated in "dozens" of public debates. That's an outright lie. Does Amanda Henneberg even know that it's a lie? How much does she actually know about Robert Hurt, his background, and his campaign? She also claimed, "As we have made clear from the beginning of this campaign, Robert is happy to debate Congressman Perriello one-on-one.” Well we know that's not true, Robert wasn't clear from the beginning of this campaign at all!

Here's the question. Is Amanda Henneberg purposefully lying, or is she so ignorant she doesn't know she's lying?

Tom Perriello: Six Degrees of Hollywood

The NRCC is finally up to defend their boy Senator Robert Hurt from the apparent bully in the 5th District of Virginia, Tom Perriello. First time in his life that Tommy Boy's ever been accused of the bully. And now, having spent the last two years telling us that Perriello was a New York, we're told that he's a Hollywood liberal!



I've long said that the Republican Party needs to do more to investigate the ties of Tommy Boy and his friends. Who else went to Yale with Tom Perriello? What other potential subversive politicians come from the Albemarle area where Perriello makes his home? I did a little bit of research of my own and discovered some worrying ties . . .

As we all know, Tom Perriello has received significant support from other leading Democrats, including former Virginia Governor Tim Kaine.

Former Governor Tim Kaine is now Chairman of the DNC, the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC has received funds from notorious actor Kevin Bacon!

Wow, Tom Perriello is practically in the pocket of Kevin Bacon. Talk about bringing home the pork!

How far does the influence of Bacon-flavored politics go?

It's worse than I originally thought.

Kevin Bacon was in the 1987 comedy Planes, Trains, & Automobiles with Matthew Lawrence.

Lawrence, as we all know, was in the 1988 movie Pulse with Cliff De Young.

Now it gets interesting.

Cliff De Young was in the classic (how could you forget!) The Skateboard Kid (1993) with Trevor Lissauer.

And Trevor Lissauer was . . . in Eden's Curve with Lindwood Duncan, Virgil Goode's ol' press secretary!

Virgil was on the Appropriations Committee and his love of pork extended to his staff, with Duncan a notorious fan of hot sausage. No wonder they have links to Kevin Bacon! It's sad to see that Tom Perriello has also gone Hollywood, just like Virgil.

Want to avoid a government shut down? Call Senator Hurt!

What will a new Republican majority in Congress bring? Ask NRCC Vice chair Lynn Westmoreland:

Speaking to hundreds of activists gathered at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington for the Faith and Freedom Conference, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) urged the audience to stand with House Republicans when they go toe-to-toe with President Barack Obama.

Westmoreland said his caucus — presuming it takes control of the House come November — aims to pass spending bills that Obama is likely to veto. He predicted Republicans would not be able to override such a veto, creating a standoff that could cause Congress to grind to a halt.

“If the government shuts down, we want you with us,” he said.

The congressman recalled a similar shutdown that took place in 1995, when Newt Gingrich — also a speaker at the conference — was serving as House speaker. A future standstill could temporarily close national parks or delay payments from the government, Westmoreland speculated.

Finally, Republicans have the nerve to stand up for fiscal responsibility and get our budget in order. Even if it means some people will have to make sacrifices.

I wonder what Robert Hurt would say about the prospects of a government shutdown? Here's how he explained his 2004 vote for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia:

“The bottom line is we need to move our budget process ahead,” said Hurt. “Every day that passes without a budget, we’re closer to a government shutdown."

Several times during the primary, Robert Hurt defended his vote for higher taxes as a way to avoid a government shut down, saying that it wasn't consistent with his oath of office to shut the government down. Now we know who the White House will call up when they want to find a RINO to vote for higher taxes and avoid a government shut down . . . Thanks Robert! Let's see how fast it takes for you to reverse your pledge not to raise taxes.

Who is Robert Hurt?

Southside Virginia likes to think they know Senator Robert Hurt. Son of a wealthy and established family, he went off to college before coming back home to be a country lawyer. Plain and simple, right?

Well . . .

Maybe not.

I'm surprised that in a heated campaign in which opponents of Tom Perriello continue to attack him as a "New York lawyer" and indicate confusion over his past that more attention hasn't been given to Robert's past.

For example, despite the attack of "New York lawyer" Perriello was born and raised in the 5th District. 100% Not only was he born in the district, his entire early education was in the district. Perriello didn't leave until he started college at Yale. Young 18 year old Perriello was a Virginian, born and raised.

Robert Hurt? He'd like you to think he was just as Virginian, but there are some serious gaps in his story. First off, that he was born in New York City is obviously not common knowledge among his supporters. You've got to love the way Robert dismisses the situation of his birth.

In his law office across the street from the courthouse on Main Street in Chatham, Hurt says his birth in New York was simply a result of where his mother was at the time.

He lived in New York for about nine years but prefers to talk about growing up in Chatham, where he and his family live across the street from his parents. He was elected to Chatham's Town Council in 2000, then the House of Delegates in 2001 and the state Senate in 2007.

Newsflash Robert, all births are a result of where the mother is. Or did your parents never explain the birds and the bees to you?

Hurt lived in New York for nine years but claims to have grown up in Chatham. Does coming down to Virginia during the summer count for citizenship in the Old Dominion?

More importantly, a lot of Hurt supporters talk about how he graduated from Hargrave Military Academy. The fact is he "attended" the Academy before being shipped off to the wealthy Northern Virgina boarding school of Episcopal High School. Did Robert attend Episcopal High School all four years? If so, that cuts his continued time in the district growing up to less than five years.

Flash forward and we get a snap shot of Hurt's time at law school:

I went to law school. There I obtained invaluable legal training. But I also sought out that practical experience that can only be obtained in the field. During my law school years, I worked in the criminal litigation section of the Mississippi Attorney General’s Office and in the U.S Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Mississippi. During my first summer of law school, I worked in the Dekalb County District Attorney’s Office in Atlanta. During my second summer of law school, I worked for the Virginia Attorney General’s office in Richmond. During my final semester in law school, I attended the Cardozo School of Law in New York and worked for New York State Supreme Court Judge Leslie Crocker Snyder.

Robert Hurt attended a law school in New York City? Cardozo School of Law, part of Yeshiva University? Sounds like a New York Lawyer to me!

Robert Hurt's own website claims that he grew up in Chatham. If he gets to claim that he grew up in Chatham, he needs to direct his supporters to stop raising questions of Tom Perriello's origins. He himself should stop indicating that Perriello isn't from around here. It's shameful that Hurt has resorted to these sorts of negative and false attacks. I know that's how Chris LaCivitia likes to play the game, as we saw with the hit job on Robert Hurt. But I have to ask, does Hurt want people looking through his past too?

Update: What's Robert Up To?

The Perriello campaign provides us with an update on what Robert Hurt is up to when he's not debating.

Robert Hurt to Snub 5th District Voters in Favor of Raising Money with Corrupt Outsourcers

September 8, 2010--Ivy, VA--Tomorrow night, the second debate of the 5th district race will take place in Nelson County, and for the second time, Republican candidate Robert Hurt will skip it. Voters of the 5th district learned this morning that Senator Hurt will instead opt to raise money out-of-state with corrupt members of Congress who support job-killing trade deals. The fundraiser is hosted by Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), who was named to CREW's Most Corrupt Members of Congress list for his dealings with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), who has been a major supporter of free-trade deals that have cost Virginia thousands of jobs.

"Robert Hurt is now 0 for 2 on showing up for debates, and he's added insult to injury by instead flying out-of-state to raise money with two of Washington's most corrupt politicians, famous for their kick-backs to lobbyists and their support of job-killing free-trade deals. Robert Hurt doesn't need to get elected to Washington because he's already gone Washington, preferring high-dollar lobbyist fundraisers instead of answering questions from the people he claims he wants to represent,"said Jessica Barba, spokeswoman for the Perriello campaign.

Thursday night's debate, to take place at 7:00 p.m. at Nelson County High School, is hosted by the Nelson County Chamber of Commerce. Tom Perriello and independent conservative candidate Jeff Clark are confirmed to attend.

What's Robert Hurt Hiding?

Has anyone seen Robert Hurt lately?



Wonder where he is . . . Oh, found him!

But Hurt, coming out of a primary battle, is rebuilding his war chest. On Thursday, he is scheduled to raise money at a luncheon in Dallas with Texas Reps. Pete Sessions, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Jeb Hensarling. Perriello and Clark are to debate in Nelson County the same day.

Hurt has refused to debate Clark, who is very conservative politically. If Hurt skips Thursday's debate, it would be the second time that Perriello and Clark have debated without the Republican nominee.

Robert Hurt would rather raise money with his rich Republican friends than debate the issues here in Virginia. When is he going to actually show up for the job interview?

Jim Webb Smacks Tom Perriello, Opposes Cap and Trade

Wow, talk about a rough start to the official campaign season:



The problem I've had with Democrat bloggers complaining about Perriello's reelection chances is that they focus too heavily on the handful of votes where Tommy Boy actually supported the majority of his distraction, such as opposing federal funding of abortion. Or, in the words of one Democrat blogger, sticking his nose in the vaginas of the women of the 5th district. I wonder if maybe Tommy Boy would be ahead in the polls if he were more willing to do that sort of thing, if you know what I mean . . .

The problem with Tom Perriello isn't where he's voted conservative, it's been where he votes liberal. And cap and tax is one of the biggest signs of where Obama, Pelosi, and Perriello want to take us. And where even Democrats like Jim Webb don't want to take us. I guess this is just a sign that the 2010 election season is almost over and Webb's starting to worrying about his own hide in 2012!