What’s Next?

I couldn't have said it better myself:

So what is next. The prevailing wisdom is to “get behind the winner, so we can beat Perriello”. If by “get behind” they mean vote against Perriello then that is what most people will do. But you don’t win hard races with that tactic. Robert Hurt needs to give people reasons to get excited about him and to vote FOR him, not against the other guy.The concern I and others have, is that its going to be really hard to get people to go door to door for Robert Hurt in an effort to defeat Tom Perriello. TP has access to 5 Billion dollars of George Sorros money if he needs it. He can flood the district with calls,ads, and boots on the ground to topple his opponent.

How can we compete with that? Give us a reason to vote for you Robert.

A lot of people, including Hurt supporters, were critical of the host of non-Hurt candidates for running against Robert Hurt and not offering up a strong reason to be in support of them. That was an entirely valid criticism, but one that also holds true in November.

Robert Hurt has to give conservatives a reason to get excited about voting for him. He can't just run as the non-Tom Perriello.

The ball is in your court Robert.

Tuesday Predictions . . . And An Endorsement!!

By this time tomorrow the polls will have closed across Virginia and we'll be starting to wait for election returns to come in from the Old Dominion. Here in the 5th District of Virginia we've had the privilege, or curse, of watching a spirited and sometimes dirty primary among seven Republicans trying to win opportunity, or misfortune, of taking on Democrat Tom Perriello. This past Saturday, the Democrat Party officially nominated Tom Perriello to be their party's candidate for the 5th District of Virginia. Over the past year and a half, Perriello has raised almost $2 million and is sitting on a pile of cash worth almost $1.7 million.

Perriello is well positioned for the general election. Last week I gave some tough love to Robert Hurt by pointing out that he has voted to raise (some) taxes, not just the 2004 budget deal. He's not a liberal Democrat, he's a moderate Republican with some conservative credentials. But he's no Rand Paul or Sarah Palin.

Here is my tough love for my fellow Republicans about Perriello. Talk all you want about how he is a Pelosi clone, the real voters of the 5th District know he's not a knee-jerk Democrat. Take a look at the record. Yes, Perriello voter for the pork-filled stimulus, cap and tax, and the government take over of health care. But he's been very blunt about his support for these policies and hasn't tried to hide from them. Just a little bit to the east, Glenn Nye is running as a Democrat but doing everything possible to distance himself from Pelosi. He claims to oppose cap and tax and socialist health care, but in his letters to constituents he talked about how great cap and tax is. Politician insiders like Glenn Nye will tell you exactly what you want to hear, which is why you can't trust them. At least Perriello tells you what he believes.

And so when Perriello votes against his own party I believe he actually is doing what he thinks is right, not a political stunt to win voters for reelection. When he votes to defend the 2nd Amendment I believe that he really is pro-gun rights. When he votes against federal funding of abortion I believe him that he really does oppose federal funding of abortion. When he votes for a permanent bailout fund for Wall Street executives at the expense of the taxpayers I think he's doing what he thinks is right.

So this is going to be a tough reelection fight. I think Perriello has done everything possible to keep his Democrat base happy. And I think he's set himself up to win over the moderate voters that first put him into office. And maybe even pick up a few more.

When Robert Hurt first threw his hat into the ring I was distrustful. And here is my first Tuesday prediction. Tomorrow night an establishment Republican will fall short of the majority in his Republican primary. No, I'm not talking about Robert Hurt. I'm talking about South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, who I first blogged about last year. Bob Inglis will go into a runoff, where he will almost certainly be defeated for the GOP nomination.

Congressman Bob Inglis is what Robert Hurt could be in the future. No one can fault Inglis for being a liberal. He's just a career politician who, despite being a Republican, has some moderate and left-leaning instincts. He voted for TARP. He's not comfortable with the grassroots conservatives in the Tea Parties. He's the type of Republican who doesn't attract much notice until the going gets tough. And then he buckles and votes for bigger government. Just like Robert Hurt, who was virtually unimportant until his 2004 vote for higher taxes.

I don't want to put someone like Inglis into office if I can stop it from happening. The problem with Inglis is that he doesn't care that his vote for TARP doomed his reelection chances. He knows that the establishment will take care of him. He's got a nice retirement, maybe a job as a lobbyist, or a political appointee. There's no accountability when members like Inglis don't care if they vote for bigger government. Hurt could do the same. Get elected, serve for years, and then vote for another bailout. Sure, we'd get angry and vote him out, but would that really punish him when he's just going to go to K Street and get a cushy job?

So that's been my biggest concern for Hurt. My other concern is his hire of a ruthless mudslinging political operative who I won't mention here. I don't like negative personal campaigns. I don't want Perriello to win, but I will be voting for Jeff Clark if Hurt runs a negative campaign against Perriello that focuses on him personality and not politically.

Over the last week I've been preparing for the general election by setting mental benchmarks for Hurt. If he campaigns dirty, he won't get my vote. If he campaigns as the true conservative he isn't, he won't get my vote. If he's honest about who he is, he'll get my vote.

I was getting ready to type up a post tonight endorsing the most viable opponent to Hurt, Jim McKelvey. That was until I heard about his pre-primary antics of having a recording of Virgil Goode talk him up, despite the lack of a Goode endorsement. That's the lack of honor and integrity I worried Hurt's adviser would bring and it has totally alienated me. So, here is my endorsement, based on my fears that Hurt will betray the conservative base of the GOP and my belief that McKelvey has run a dirty campaign.

I will be writing in Virgil Goode.

Is This Any Way to Run a Party?

Is this any way to run a party? Tim Boyle should be appointed a Czar in the Obama Administration, he seems like an expert in heavy handed tactics to suppress political debate. The South Hill Enterprise reports on Boyle's Stalinist tactics at recent Mecklenburg County GOP event.

Morton addressed an issue brought up earlier in the meeting by Hurt, his voting for a budget that would include a tax increase in 2004.

“I say there was politics behind the scenes,” Morton began. Tim Boyle interrupted her.

“This is not about attacking other candidates.” Tim Boyle began. “This is about your campaign.”

“Excuse me …,” Morton began.

“What I am saying is this is for you to present your case as to why they should vote for you,” Tim Boyle said.

A constituent interrupted him by saying that Morton should be allowed to speak.

“You should vote for me because I will not compromise on your taxes as was done in the state of Virginia already and on record a $1.4 billion tax increase by representatives in the state government who crossed over (Republicans who voted with Democrats),” Morton said. She said now the state has to experience cutbacks that would affect teachers who would leave the school systems or would be “rifted.”

Sometime later, Tim Boyle told Morton her time was up and it was now time for her to take questions from the constituents. Someone with Morton’s campaign disagreed by saying that Morton had not reached her 15 minutes.

Someone from the audience spoke up and said, “Mr. Chairman I think you are being very unfair to this candidate. You have gone out of your way to say people couldn’t hand out sign up sheets.”

And Boyle attacked Verga as well for trying to show his contrast with tax-raising Rob Hurt:

“Earlier Robert talked about the tax increases of 2004. Those tax increases were very profound and affect me and each and every one of us, every day,” Verga said.

“With (Governor) Tim Kaine, Senator Hurt voted on a,” Verga was saying but was interrupted by Tim Boyle.

“I am going to have to ask you as I asked Ms. Morton, please keep it to,” Tim Boyle was saying but was interrupted by Verga.

“No, this is about policy,” Verga said.

“This is not about attacking other candidates,” Tim Boyle said.

“I am not attacking, this is his votes,” Verga said but was interrupted again by Tim Boyle. But Tim Boyle was then interrupted.

“I object again Mr. Chairman,” a constituent in the audience said.

“I will continue,” Verga said as he walked closer to the table where Tim Boyle sat. “If you want to walk me out of the room and think you can then go ahead.”

The constituent noted that the people wanted to hear about policy differences.

“Voting with Tim Kaine on a transportation bill that would have led to taxation without representation,” Verga continued. “That was voted down by the Virginia Supreme Court seven to nothing. I don’t believe that is the candidate you want in Washington fighting for the Constitution. More recently voting against making the ABC liquor stores free market. Not the person you want to go to D.C. and provide for an open market.

Is this how Hurt plans to win the Republican nomination? By suppressing debate? The actions of Tim Boyle bring into question the independence of the local Republican elite in the district as Hurt proposes a series of debates moderated by them. Will Boyle and the other Hurt henchmen even allow disagreement at these so-called "debates?" If Boyle shouts down anyone who wants to express disagreement with Hurt's record how can the people of the 5th District make an informed decision?

On Transparency

Back when Ken Boyd first released information on a poll showing him the strongest challenger to Rob Hurt in the primary, I defended his campaign's decision to reveal this information to his e-mail list first. I expected, at first, that he would follow this up with more transparency about the specifics of the poll after his closest supporters had access to the information. Instead, he's been hiding ever since and has refused to reveal anything about the poll, even the polling firm's identity. Bad form.

Similarly, Rob Hurt is now playing a game in which he releases a snippet of information about his fundraising daily without revealing the full FEC report, which has yet to be filed. This way he is able to totally control the messaging. Reporters take him at his word that his claims are true and are unable to fact check how many of his contributors from Virginia are members of Congress and lobbying firms with a Virginia address.

Already we know that Eric Cantor is counting as one of the 450 "grassroots" supporters that Hurt has from Virginia. Who else is Hurt counting? We don't know. And by the time he files his FEC report and people are able to look under the hood of this lemon the reporters in the 5th will say that it's old news and time to move on.

I have been informed that Media General reporter Brian McNeill has also chosen not to pass along information on the 28 bills that Hurt's campaign claims shows that he has a record of supporting tax cuts. Has McNeill fact checked Hurt's campaign on this claim? How many of these bills are duplicates of the same proposal introduced in different sessions of the General Assembly? How many represent small and minor tax breaks that are molehills compared to the mountain of new taxes Hurt voted for in 2004 and 2007?

The public doesn't know because Hurt's campaign is focusing on control, not on transparency. This doesn't bode well for the rest of his campaign and his potential time in Congress. Will Hurt fight for transparency in the legislating process? Many Republicans are quick to attack Democrats for making deals behind closed doors, but is that any different than how the Republicans acted when they were in power? We don't need to just replace Democrats with any random Republican, we need to replace Democrats with new Republicans with consistent conservative principles.

6 Reasons Why Hurt Should Not Be GOP Nominee

Here is a hot new press release from Republican candidate Laurance Verga outlining six votes where Rob Hurt voted for higher taxes for Virginians.

ALBEMARLE COUNTY, VA - Yesterday, my NRCC-backed opponent, State Senator Robert Hurt, unveiled his brand new website, where he once again lies to the citizens of the 5th District about his atrocious tax-raising record. Today the Daily Progress quotes my response:

"On Senator Hurt's brand new website he has the bold-faced lie that he has 'consistently opposed tax increases that did not put the people first.' Does he think that the people are dumb enough to forget that he voted to raise your taxes by $1.4 billion, the largest tax increase in Virginia history, and he even tried to raise taxes unconstitutionally? Shame on Senator Hurt for belittling the citizens of the 5th District who certainly haven't forgotten as we are still paying for his tax hikes daily. People are tired of career politicians like Senator Hurt who distort their atrocious record to further their own aspirations."

Senator Hurt has voted 6 times for higher taxes. Below is a summary of those votes:

In 2002, Hurt Voted To Increase The Excise Tax On Soft Drinks. "Increases the amount of tax in the current top bracket from $6,000 to $7,200 for gross receipts exceeding $10,000,000 but not more than $25,000,000. It also adds two additional brackets: for gross receipts exceeding $25,000,000 but not more than $50,000,000, the tax is $18,000 and for gross receipts exceeding $50,000,000 the tax is $33,000. The soft drink excise tax is imposed on every wholesaler or distributor of carbonated soft drinks." (HB 193, Passed, 84-Y; 12-N, 01/24/02, Hurt Voted Yea)

In 2004, Hurt Voted Against Lower Tax Rates For Businesses. "Phases in lower rates based on growth for each of the four BPOL categories by five cents and allows only a $25 fee rather than $50, for businesses that start up in the last six months of a taxable year. These changes are effective for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2005." (HB 461, Defeated: 38-Y; 60-N, 02/17/04, Hurt Voted Nay)

In 2004, Hurt Voted For The Omnibus Tax Bill Proposed By Mark Warner That Raised Virginia's Taxes. (HB 5018, Passed: 52-Y; 46-N, 04/13/04, Hurt Voted Yea)

In 2006, Hurt Voted To Increase The Fees In Order To Obtain A Hunting Permit In State Forests. "Increases the fees to obtain a hunting permit or a trapping permit in a state forest from $10 to $15." (HB 260, Passed: 89-Y; 9-N, 01/23/06, Hurt Voted Yea)

In 2006, Hurt Voted For A Bill That "Conforms The Amount Of Virginia Estate Tax Due From An Estate To The Maximum Amount Of The Federal Estate Tax Credit For State Estate Taxes..." (HB 40, Passed: 93-Y; 7-N, 02/02/06, Hurt Voted Yea)

In 2007, Hurt Voted For Tim Kaine's Unconstitutional Transportation Bill that Would Have Imposed Taxation Without Representation Through Unelected Regional Taxing Authorities. It Also Imposed A Diesel Tax Increase. (HB 3202, Passed: 64-Y; 34-N, Hurt Voted Yea)

And here is a preview of Tom Perriello's campaign against Rob Hurt should he get the nominee:

7/7/09: Co-signed a letter to House leadership authored by Rep. Adler opposing the taxation of sodas and other sugary beverages as a means of offsetting the cost of health care reform. This had the support of local beverage bottlers/distributors.

7/16/09: Co-signed a letter to House leadership authored by Rep. Polis opposing the imposition of a surcharge on small business with income above 250K as a means of offsetting the cost of health reform. The Virginia Chamber of Commerce and various other small business interest groups were supportive of this.

9/10/09: H.R. 3046, the Hunting Heritage Protection Act. The bill would protect the right of hunters to access public lands by requiring public land management practices ensure that there is no net loss of public lands for hunting.

5/22/09: Concurring to Sec. 512 of Senate Amendment to the Credit Cardholders’ Bill of Rights Act of 2009 to protect the possession of firearms in National Parks in line with the existing policies of other public land agencies. Voted yes.

12/4/09: Introduced H.R. 4208, which would raise the estate tax exemption for the special use valuation of farmland to $3.5 billion.

Rob Hurt's entire website is full of stories about Tom Perriello being vulnerable. That's not a reason to support Hurt's campaign! That's a reason to support a strong conservative opponent to Perriello!

Show Me The Money!

Yesterday, Laurance Verga dropped a bombshell with the announcement that he had contributed almost $227,000 to his campaign. That's nothing to ignore, although if I had that type of money I wouldn't be using it to run for Congress!

The Verga haters pounced on the announcement pretty quickly, but I was frankly surprised by how many of them were Perriello supporters. On Twitter, former (maybe even current?) Perriello campaign staffers were criticizing Verga for raising so little money from actual donors and depending almost entirely on his own personal wealth. If Perriello's supporters are attacking Verga already he must be doing something right!

But what does this use of personal wealth really signify?

Of course in an ideal world of unicorns the Republican challenger to an incumbent Democrat would have a huge warchest that included significant contributions from the district, showing that they have built a network of support. But self-funding candidates are not to be ignored, given that the Republican Party has turned to them in the 2nd and the 11th as well. At this point in the primary I'd give a bonus to any Republican candidate who was able to bring in a lot of cash from within the district, but I'm not going to give a negative to Verga for being a self-funder. At the end of the day the TV stations and the like will still accept his cash regardless of where he got it. It can still be used to wage a serious fight for the nomination.

But this does set up an interesting question for Rob Hurt when he announces. It's one thing to use your own personal wealth on a campaign, I think it shows that you are willing to put your money where your mouth is. But will Hurt's warchest come primarily from 5th District constituents or from corporate PACs in DC that have been directed to his campaign by the NRCC and Eric Cantor? We know with Verga that no one has bought for him. We know with Perriello from day one that he was bought by George Soros and New York money. Who will be buying Rob Hurt? The people of the 5th District or the Beltway establishment?

Hurt Could Win During General Assembly

My last post on Rob Hurt noted that his major advantage in this race is the "backing" of the NRCC and the Beltway powers that be. This gives him a level of access to power that no one else in the race has matched so far. But even the leaders of the conservative movement refuse to bend over backwards for a guy who voted for the largest tax increase in Virginia history.

Norquist said that Hurt “needs to be able to articulate why it’s credible that, having cast that vote, he wouldn’t vote for a tax increase in the future. That’s his challenge in that race.”

Signing a no tax pledge isn't enough when Hurt's trying to wash himself of a record of voting for higher taxes. As Norquist says, he needs to be able to articulate why he's a credible conservative now. His strategy so far has been to reference a few special interest groups that like him. Now he's signed a pledge. He still is campaigning like being a conservative is just checking off boxes.

Hurt has an opening to articulate his views and argue that he is a conservative leader that deserves to join the House of Representatives. Bob McDonnell is boldly moving forward with proposals to reform Virginia's broken budget process. This follows his push in the campaign to think outside of the box in finding solutions for our state's transportation woes. When McDonnell's ideas enter the lion's den of the General Assembly, Hurt needs to do more than just be a supportive vote. He needs to be a supportive voice and become a leader for McDonnell's agenda.

Hurt also needs to explain why he's previously not only voted to raise taxes, but has opposed some of the leading proposals to reform Virginia's state government. For example, McDonnell is not the first to champion privatization of the ABC stores. This idea has floated around for many years and was included in Doug Wilder's list of suggestions to then Governor Mark Warner before he decided to raise taxes with Hurt's help. But when it was most recently taken up in the State Senate, Rob Hurt voted against the proposal. This shows a worrying trend to not only buck the party to support Democrat tax increases, but a willingness to kill bold new ideas and protect the status quo. As conservatives work to dismantle the worst extravagances of the Bush-Obama years, we don't need someone like Hurt voting against their efforts. Hurt has the next General Assembly session to prove himself. Will he step up to the challenge?

The Case for Rob Hurt, Part II

After the first part of this series I had a difficult time coming up with more reasons for someone to support Rob Hurt in the primary (in a general election against Perriello is another question). Rob Hurt's name ID doesn't mean that much right now and any candidate with enough money will be able to achieve the name ID needed to defeat Perriello. And that's when I realized that the case about Rob Hurt is all about the Benjamins.

Because the NRCC has "encouraged" Rob Hurt to join the race, Hurt has connections and access that no one else in the primary has right now. It's his only chance at expelling the demons of his tax increasing votes.

Five years ago, Virginia legislator Robert Hurt (R) appeared on a Wild West-style “Least Wanted” poster of a prominent anti-tax organization after he voted for some tax increases in a budget plan to shore up Virginia’s shaky finances.

Hurt’s vote is a major issue as he campaigns for the 2010 Republican nomination to oppose one-term Rep. Tom Perriello (D) in Virginia’s 5th district, where the National Republican Congressional Committee is promoting Hurt as the party’s strongest candidate.

Hurt was in Washington, D.C., last week to do a little damage control: he participated in a weekly meeting of Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), the organization that blasted him in the 2004 poster and in an accompanying press release, and signed the group’s pledge to oppose tax increases as a member of Congress.

“He basically made the case that this was not a vote that he was comfortable with and that it wouldn’t happen again,” ATR president Grover Norquist, an influential conservative activist, told CQ Politics on Wednesday. “But he certainly made the case that in Washington, he’d never vote for a tax increase.”

Norquist said that Hurt “needs to be able to articulate why it’s credible that, having cast that vote, he wouldn’t vote for a tax increase in the future. That’s his challenge in that race.”

If the NRCC didn't want Hurt in the race, I doubt Grover Norquist and Americans for Tax Reform would give Hurt the time of day. Unless the NRCC was doing everything possible behind the scenes to mend the fence between Hurt and top level tax activists like Norquist, I doubt they'd be open to Hurt articulating why he has changed his ways. They'd be firing off the press releases right now attacking him.

The NRCC's seal of approval will do more than give Hurt the opportunity to win back over opponents of his votes to raise taxes. It will give him a chance to raise the money needed to defeat Perriello faster than anyone else, flooding the primary as well. We are just days away from the end of the first quarter in which Hurt has been an announced candidate. All eyes will be on his fundraising to see if he's breaking away from everyone else in the pack. If Hurt raises the big bucks and leaves everyone else in the dust, the argument for Hurt becomes all about the Benjamins. We'll know soon enough if Hurt has the ability to raise the money to defeat Perriello.

Rob Hurt "Facts"

Update: Changing the title. I thought it would be clear that "Rob Hurt Lies" would be lies about Rob Hurt. Like the jokes "Chuck Norris Facts." I'm changing it to clear up the confusion. Maybe "Rob Hurt Tall Tales" would work too.

Wow. I just read a comment over at Bearing Drift that takes the prize for biggest lie about Rob Hurt. It seems that the Hurt supporters are going to try to win by outright falsifying their candidate's record. He can't hide from his votes to raise taxes. And he can't hide from his biography. About the only real Hurt cheerleader in the blogosphere, kelley in virginia, is claiming that "he’s lived in the 5th all his life so he knows the issues."

Oh really?

Hurt needs to scrub this news story from his website.

Hurt grew up in Pittsylvania County, earned a bachelor's degree from Hampden-Sydney College in 1991, and received a law degree from from Mississippi College School of Law in 1995.

While in law school, he worked in the criminal litigation section of the Mississippi Attorney General's Office and in the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Mississippi.

He also worked for the DeKalb County District Attorney's Office in Atlanta, Ga., and Virginia Attorney General's Office in Richmond.

During his final semester, he attended the Cardozo School of Law in New York and worked for a New York State Supreme Court judge.

But about that "grew up in Pittsylvania County" . . . Here's some history for you.

Born in New York, New York, June 16, 1969

New York?!

Oh, and check out his high school.

Episcopal High School (1987)

That's not in Pittsylvania . . .

The comprehensive tuition fee for the 2007-08 school year was $38,200, in addition to the technology fee ($250), cost of books (about $600), and spending money. Student activities are included in the tuition, although there are some exceptions.

I would love to know the tuition for the school when Hurt was attending. Right now tuition at the school is higher than the per capita income of the 5th District.

Republicans welcome new entry to 5th District primary

IVY- Republicans will have a new but familiar choice in next June's open primary election to challenge U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Ivy. Meet Rep. Tom Perriello, R-Ivy.

Following in the independent tradition of the 5th District, Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello announced that he would enter the June Republican primary in order to receive the nomination of both major parties.

“I now have my work cut out for me,” Perriello said. “I’m humbled to — I mean this sincerely — humbled to be in the field of up to nine good men and women. The fact that there are so many candidates really does show the level of enthusiasm for changing the direction of this country.”

"This probably isn't what people thought I meant when I said I'd work a double shift," said Perriello.

Andy Sere, regional press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the GOP is looking for a candidate with a strong record, the ability to put together a well-funded campaign and who can draw a stark contrast with President Barack Obama's liberal agenda in Washington.

“Having this process play out in public view and be decided by a primary open to all voters, including Democrats, that’s something that’s healthy,” Sere said. “I think it’s healthy, but I think at the end of the day that everyone’s going to unite behind the Republican nominee simply because everyone recognizes what the ultimate goal here is — which is to elect someone who calls them self a Republican.”

A primary favors a candidate that can create a large campaign organization, something Perriello did last year in defeating long term Republican Rep. Virgil Goode. Primaries also bring more people into the candidate selection process, including those in the military who can vote by absentee ballots. But because Virginia doesn’t require party registration, Democrats will be able to vote in the GOP primary.

The choice to hold a primary will allow Democrats to pick the Republican nominee, something that Perriello seems to be trying to take advantage of.

“A primary, many people believe, has a bigger access to more people,” said 5th District Republican Party Chairman Tucker Watkins. “A convention is easier to limit it to just Republicans … You have to decide which you think is a better way to nominate the candidate. Obviously the 32 voting members of the 21 party units across the district thought it would be better to let the Democrats nominate our candidates. I feel kind of silly now that we didn't think the Democrats would take advantage of the process. That Perriello is smart. He went to a good college."

But Perriello will also face a frontal assault on his record by several conservative candidates who believe that he his too liberal to represent the Republican Party.

“They have just chosen the best way to elect a RINO to that seat,” said Tea Party and FairTax activist Brad Rees. RINO is an acronym for “Republican In Name Only,” and it’s a label Perriello will have to shed over the next six months if he hopes to rally the GOP behind his nomination. Already, GOP candidate Robert Hurt has referred to Perriello as a liberal because his votes to raise taxes are larger than Hurt's votes to raise taxes.

“I don’t even know what that means,” Hurt said in response. “I am a Republican! Andy said the nomination was mine! Mine!

Perriello, for his part, dismissed that idea that he is anything but a true conservative. He received a top rating, he noted, from the National Rifle Association in his 2008 run for Congress. And he voted against federal funding of abortion in the health care reform bill.

"I am proud to have reduced taxes," he said. "My very first bill, the American Opportunity Tax Credit, was signed into law six weeks after it was introduced as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The bill provides for a tax credit of up to $2,500 for tuition and related expenses (including textbooks, for the first time) to help middle-class families afford college and allow displaced workers to attend community college in preparation for re-entry into the workforce. And I'm proud to have fought against unbalanced budgets."

Perriello also said fiscal responsibility is a “signature issue” for him.

The NRCC was quick to respond to complaints from conservative activists that a match up between Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Tom Perriello wouldn't be a fair election.

“We are fortunate to have a strong field of GOP candidates who are more interested in serving their country than serving themselves, a la Glenn Nye ,” said Sere. “No one likes an empty suit, and Nye — who has quickly developed a reputation on both sides of the aisle for shameless political posturing — is looking more and more like a one-term congressman with each passing day. The good citizens of the 5th District should just be thankful that they are not represented by Glenn Nye.”

Conservatives Don't Just Check Off Boxes

Last night I had some fun at Rob Hurt's expense by noting his week attempt to defend his record as "conservative." Hurt made a halfhearted attempt to reference a few Republican-leaning special interest groups and quickly glossed over a few meaningless policy positions. He is "proud" of his record that includes opposing taxes and repealing taxes, but also voting for the two largest tax increases in Virginia's history. One step forward, two steps back.

But let's analyze Hurt's statement a bit more seriously. I believe it shows a deep flaw with Rob Hurt as a candidate due to his failure to understand that being a conservative is more than checking off boxes. Rob Hurt may think he understands politics. He's been in the General Assembly for a while and he understands a little bit about the game. Blue team versus red team. Democrats versus Republicans. While Virginia doesn't have party registration, Rob Hurt has made his partisan identity public by running as a Republican. If Virginia had party registration you can be sure he'd check off the box to call himself a Republican. Rob Hurt is a Republican because he is a Republican. It's just a fact. He has checked that box off. That's all there is to being a member of a party. Just check the box.

That doesn't make Rob Hurt a conservative.

Being a conservative is more than checking off a few boxes. The problem with liberalism is that it has become little more than special interest politics. Check off the box for being "pro-choice." Check off the box for being "pro-affirmative action." Pick up some union endorsements. Pander to the environmentalists. The liberal movement in America is defined by an overall governing ideology of "I want something from the government." Most of the groups within the Democrat Party agree on little day to day. Auto workers in Detroit don't have much in common with environmentalists in San Francisco. But they do have one thing in common. They want something from the government. And to get what they want they will raise your taxes.

Rob Hurt has spent too much time in the General Assembly playing the game of blue team versus red team. He just thinks that there are two sides full of different special interest groups that want something. At the end of the day there isn't enough to go around so special interest groups fall into alliances to fight out who gets the loot the government has collected from the taxpayers. But in this view of government there is no meaningful difference between the two sides. That's the game Rob Hurt seems to be playing. Just check off the boxes of the special interest groups that support the red team.

Such a vision of government gets to the core of why Rob Hurt voted for the two largest tax increases in Virginia's history. He's "proud" to have voted for balanced budgets. "Proud" to have voted for additional revenue so that the special interests could have more money to split up amongst themselves. That's the approach of the liberals in the Democrat Party. Budget deficits? Not enough government revenue to pay for all of the programs? The simple liberal solution is just to raise taxes. Bring in more revenue. Problem solved. That's how the Democrats do it. That's how Mark Warner "solved" the budget crisis in Virginia.

I am happy that there is a widespread grassroots movement concerned about the direction of our country. One of the issues that is motivating this grassroots revolution is the deficit and our growing national debt. But Bill Clinton was worried about that too. So are many liberals in Congress. They are worried about it because it means they won't have enough money to pay for all of their stuff. The problem isn't the deficit. That's the symptom. The real problem is government spending too much money. Real conservatives get this. They understand there has to be more than just the fight over how to divide the loot. We need to take steps to reduce the amount of loot in the hands of politicians and make sure more is kept by the taxpayer. Rob Hurt may be able to check off the boxes for the red team's special interest groups, but he's shown a consistent inability to understand what it means to be a conservative.

Rob Hurt: Dazed & Confused

Poor Rob Hurt seems dazed and confused by the criticism against him from the conservative grassroots. He is trying to push back and defend his record, but just doesn't seem to be able to pull together a strong message. Here is Hurt in the Charlottesville Daily Progress.

Hurt, for his part, dismissed the idea that he is anything but a true conservative. He enjoys top ratings, he noted, from the National Rifle Association, pro-life groups and the Family Foundation.

“I’m proud to have fought against taxes,” he said. “I’m proud to have repealed taxes. And I’m proud to have voted for balanced budgets.”

The NRA? The same one that gave Tom Perriello an "AQ" for answering their survey with all of the right answers? Given Perriello's willingness to sign onto every sheet of paper the NRA puts in front of him I'd say that Perriello, at some future event in Danville against Hurt, will be able to claim top ratings from the NRA too.

Pro-life? Well, Tommy Boy is a good Catholic but as a Democrat he dances around the abortion issue. But he has his credentials with his vote to prevent taxpayer funding of abortion in the health care bill.

But where Rob Hurt really shows his grasp of politics is his statement that he is "proud" to have voted for balanced budgets. Virginia, like all states but Vermont, is required to have a balanced budget. It's no feat at all to vote for balanced budgets in Virginia. They are, by definition, balanced! What Hurt means to say is he's "proud" to have voted for the largest tax increase in Virginia to balance the budget instead of cutting waste and inefficiency!

With Rob Hurt showing signs of weakness in the campaign the NRCC should start looking for another candidate to anoint. If they don't care about a candidate's economic record I have a great suggestion for them. He's an energetic young politician who received the NRA's top rating for challengers in 2008. He's faith based. Voted against taxpayer funding of abortion and "tithes" ten percent of his campaign time. Oh, don't worry about his votes to raise taxes and send this country into a destructive spiral of deficits and recession. Can you guess this new candidate who sounds just as conservative as Rob Hurt? Here's a clue, a picture of him with who I believe to be State Senator Rob Hurt.

Why Now?

If holding a primary to ensure that our men and women in uniform overseas can vote absentee is so important to the establishment of the Republican Party, why did we nominate our 2009 candidates through a convention? Why was the 2008 Senate fight between Bob Marshall and Jim Gilmore decided at a convention? Sure, we've used primaries like in 2004. But the Republican Party of Virginia is just as likely to pick up a convention for important statewide elections. Let's not pretend that one side in this fight is high and mighty, both are making arguments because of their desire to win. That's the bottom line.

Hurt's side argues the turnout could be as high as 50,000. Maybe, maybe not. Those numbers are based on very competitive Republican primary elections in 2000. It could be as low as 30,000. The spin from the decision to hold a primary instead of a convention has been that this favors Hurt. However, I think Andy Sere at the NRCC has some personal experience with Republican candidates that managed to win primaries against establishment Republicans. He should be worried.

The 2004 Vote Matters

I want to point out something that is often overlooked in the back and forth on Rob Hurt's support for the 2004 Warner tax increases. This vote is not ancient history. And it has remained an important divide between Republicans and Democrats in Virginia. Note soon to be sworn in Governor Bob McDonnell's message on the campaign trail.

McDonnell talked of the tax hike at last week's debate, criticizing it as the largest tax increase in Virginia's history and noting that a state surplus the same year demonstrated that the increase was not needed.

"I did not think it was the right vote at the time," McDonnell said, "because the kind of governor that I'm going to be is to find ways to do things better, to make government...to reform government, to use innovation and privatization and consolidation to be able to find new resources, to set priorities in government. That's why I've said public safety and transportation and funding for higher education will be my priorities, as opposed to my opponent that's always just looking for new revenues."

Has Hurt done anything to explain why he differs from Bob McDonnell on this issue?

Oh Really Sere?

Andy Sere is claiming at that the NRCC has been entirely fair in the fight in the 5th District of Virginia:

But NRCC spokesman Andy Sere told HUMAN EVENTS, “we have not endorsed a candidate in that race.” He said an endorsement is “unlikely," and that the NRCC has promoted Verga on their website. He also said it should become clearer who is best fit to take on Perriello after the fourth quarter fundraising reports are released late next month.

Oh really?

Where is Verga and others on this profile of the Virginia 5th? They mention both Loyola and Rigell in the 2nd but no one but Hurt in the 5th.

I am not the only Virginia blogger to note the NRCC's favoritism toward Hurt. But check out what the media in the district has picked up on.

The Danville Register & Bee:

Of the six, Hurt is the only challenger to Perriello that the NRCC has outwardly supported so far, publicizing his announcement to run via e-mail.

Lynchburg News & Advance:

Thursday afternoon, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out one of its many e-mail blasts about Rep. Tom Perriello, the Democrat who represents the Fifth District in the House of Representatives.

The release, which came under the signature of Regional Press Secretary Andy Sere, was about the announcement of state Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Chatham, announcing his plans to challenge Perriello in November 2010. Hurt’s entry into the race prompted many political experts to rate Democrat Perriello as one of the most endangered freshmen in next year’s congressional elections.

Roanoke Times:

"Senator Hurt's candidacy is excellent news for the legions of central and Southside Virginians who've grown tired of having a congressman who holds their values in contempt," NRCC spokesman Andy Sere wrote in a statement.

Andy Sere has to spent as much time defending Hurt as he does attacking Perriello. Find me one example of Sere praising the other Republicans in the field. The NRCC is obviously backing Hurt and only someone who believes every line sold to them by the NRCC would believe otherwise. Sere is spinning left and right, but mainly left, in order to keep Hurt's candidacy alive. On Saturday, the word will come down from the mountain that a primary is wanted in order to lock the nomination down for Hurt. A "competitive" primary could get as high as 40,000 to 50,000 voters based on the 1st and 7th District nominations in 2000. While it will be a set back for the conservative cause, I believe the conservative grassroots can still win against Hurt.

Votes Don't Matter. Votes Matter!

This past Saturday, November 7th, Congressman Tom Perriello demonstrated his bipartisan and independent nature by voting with the Republican Party on eight out of the thirteen votes cast on that fateful day. That's over 60% of the votes!

But wait! On that very same day Tom Perriello, a Nancy Pelosi lapdog, supported the Democratic Party on twelve out of the thirteen votes! Nearly unanimous support for the far liberal agenda!

How is that possible? How can Perriello support the Republicans 60% of the time and on the very same votes support the Democrats over 90% of the time?

Because, despite being a day with historic votes on health care "reform," the day was also full of Congressional resolutions "Expressing support for designation of the week beginning on November 9, 2009, as National School Psychology Week" or "Recognizing the 20th anniversary of the remarkable events leading to the end of the Cold War and the creation of a Europe, whole, free, and at peace." There were more substantive votes dealing with what appears to be a popular small business program. And several procedural votes that were practically meaningless. On the rule setting the terms of the debate on the health care bill the Republicans argued that the Democrats were trying to jam through the bill with just four hours of debate! Republicans seized the moral high ground by arguing that Congress obviously needed five, not four, hours of debate!

Wow, what a contrast in political views!

The fact is almost half of the votes don't matter. Well over half in fact when you include procedural votes. The bulk of the votes in the House of Representatives are relatively uncontroversial bills recognizing a holiday or historical event. Sometimes there are uncontroversial bills that do actually do something, such as renaming a federal building or post office. Or, like the small business bill from Saturday, are extensions or tweaks of rather popular programs. Do you actually think there have been almost 900 meaningful votes in the House this year? NO WAY.

And then you have the procedural votes that are required under parliamentary rules but rarely accomplish anything. Every time the majority party decides to bring up a new issue or bill to debate there is a vote in which the minority party argues that issue X or bill Y is obviously more important than issue A or bill B. And every time you have a rule to set the terms of the debate the minority party will argue that they need an hour, or two hours, or thirty minutes more of debate. And additional amendments . . . etc. etc.

Yawn.

Votes don't matter.

But . . . . votes matter!!

The fact that Obama's "stimulus" package passed without any Republican support in the House of Representatives matters. It shows that the Republicans are united against him. The fact that Representative Cao of Louisiana cast the only Republican vote in favor of health care "reform" matters. It shows (if you believe Democratic spin) that there is bipartisan support for the bill. And the fact that a handful of Republicans voted for cap and tax also matters. Same thing, it provides cover to claim the bill is bipartisan.

And votes can produce change. The vote on the Stupak amendment mattered. We changed a bill that had federal funding of abortions into a bill that did not have federal funding of abortions. That may still change but it's still a big victory.

So what percentage of votes matter? I'm not sure. Twenty? Thirty? Ten? The vast majority of votes don't matter, but from time to time a Representative is actually called on to make a meaningful decision. And that's why elections matter!

Which is why the Republican nomination will matter . . . .

Rob Hurt or any other Republican will vote with the Republican Party over half the time because over half the time the vote won't matter. But what about the votes that do matter? Maybe we can count on Hurt on votes like cap and tax and health care "reform." But what about another Wall Street bailout? What about higher taxes? Will he be another Cao or Snowe and provide "bipartisan" cover to the Democrat agenda?

RINOs: An Endangered Species

Back in 2004, a group of so-called Republicans crossed over to support then Governor Mark Warner's $1.8 billion tax increase. In the House of Delegates nineteen Republicans crossed over while the State Senate had fifteen RINOs (Republicans In Name Only). First, let's take a quick look at the Republicans who held the line and voted against the tax increase. They include then Delegate Bob McDonnell (soon to be Governor), then State Senator Bill Bolling (soon to be reelected Lt. Governor), and State Senator Ken Cuccinelli (soon to be elected Attorney General). That's a pretty good group to be included in.

The tax raising liberals?

First, take a look at some of the RINOs in the House:

Delegate Preston Bryant- Jumped ship to take a cabinet appointment from tax raising Tim Kaine. His seat went Democrat in a special election.

Delegate Jim Dillard- Retired rather than face the voters. He then endorsed the Democrat running to take the open seat. Has now endorsed Creigh Deeds!

Delegate Joe May- Still around, but faced a 2005 primary fight that was relatively close for an incumbent (59% to 41%).

Delegate Harry Parrish- Won an even closer 2005 primary fight 55% to 45%. Retired and the Republicans held on 2007 with Jackson Miller.

Delegate Robert Orrock- Won a similarly close 2005 primary fight 55% to 45%.

Delegate Gary Reese- Defeated in a 2005 primary fight by Chris Craddock, but Craddock went on to be narrowly defeated by a Democrat.

Delegate Vince Callahan- Retired in 2007 and his seat was taken by a Democrat.

Delegate Charles Carrico- Tried to take on Congressman Boucher in 2006. Being a tax hiking Republican didn't help and he lost 32% to 68%.

And those in the State Senate?

Senator John Chichester- Has retired and endorsed Creigh Deeds for Governor. Republicans held onto his seat in 2007 barely.

Senator Jeannemarie Devolites- Defeated by a Democrat in 2007.

Senator Emmett Hanger- Narrowly won his 2007 Republican primary 53% to 47%.

Senator Charles Hawkins- Retired and handed his seat over to then Delegate Rob Hurt, who also voted for the tax increase.

Senator Bill Mims- Left to work for then Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Democrats took his seat in a speical election.

Senator Tommy Norment- Still around, but may be having some problems . . .

Senator Russ Potts- Left party, ran for Governor in 2005, crazy. Endorsed Creigh Deeds.

Senator Ken Stolle- Denied nomination to Congress in 2nd District because of vote to raise taxes. Currently running for Sheriff of Virginia Beach to pad his retirement.

Senator Marty Williams- Defeated in 2007 in the Republican primary because of this vote and his support for Kaine's transportation fees plan. Democrats narrowly took the seat. Last seen endorsing Creigh Deeds for Governor.

Senator Walter Stosch- Narrowly won his 2007 primary 51% to 49%!

So what's the track record for these RINOs? A lot have jumped shipped rather than face the voters. Others have had a tough time convincing their fellow Republicans to keep them around. Several have been defeated. And a surprising number have crossed over other times, be it to support Kaine's transprotation fees plan or endorsing Creigh Deeds for Governor.

Makes you wonder what now State Senator Rob Hurt has planned for his political future.

Winning Isn't Everything, It's The Only Thing

The announcement of State Senator Rob Hurt for the 5th District nomination has generated a buzz on the blogosphere. In blog, after blog, after blog, after blog, after blog, I see the same concern: Rob Hurt votes to raise taxes on Virginians. The Charlottesville Daily Progress echoed these concerns.

One possible problem for Hurt’s candidacy is that he voted in favor of a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004 that closed a gap in Virginia’s budget that threatened the state’s AAA bond rating and increased spending on education, public safety and mental health services.

The tax increase has been a sore spot for the Republican rank-and-file ever since. The issue has come up, for example, in this year’s gubernatorial race between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. McDonnell has criticized Deeds for backing the 2004 vote, saying it was the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history — and unnecessary.

The response I see everywhere, although often from the same one or two individuals, is that we MUST defeat Tom Perriello and Hurt is the ONLY Republican who can do so. Or at least the BEST challenger.

Look, winning isn't everything. It's the only thing. But you've got to know how to play the game. The game isn't over after the election. That's just the first half.

After a series of Democrat victories in Congressional elections and the election of Barack Obama Republicans could have just given up. Oh, we lost, that's it. Guess we'll just roll over and play dead until 2010. Although I have a lot of problems with the Republican leadership, they have not given up in fighting Obama and the Democrats tooth and nail. And the grassroots movement of Tea Party members and other American patriots fed up with big government have their back.

Elections are important. They are the foundation of our representative democracy. But once you get elected the battle has just begun. You have lobbyists, special interest groups, newspaper editorials, pundits, constituents, and your own Congressional peers all applying pressure to you. You think an election's bad? Try being a member of Congress.

Well, try being a member of Congress that worries about doing the right thing. If you don't worry about doing the right thing, if you don't worry about your constituents, you can just kick your feet up on your desk and wait to go vote the way Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner tell you to. No worries. But you no longer are an independence voice advocating for your constituents.

Being a conservative is about more than having the R next to your name on the ballot. It means you are an independent thinker that stands up to the leadership of either party, Democrat or Republican, when they do the wrong thing. It means having a spine.

It means not buckling under pressure and voting for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia.

The problem with RINOs like Rob Hurt and Dede Scozzafava up in upstate New York is that they buckle and give cover to Democrat legislation. Not only was Warner able to get through his massive tax increase he was able to claim it was bipartisan. And Hurt helped make that possible.

Is that the type of man we want to send to Congress to fight with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama? Hurt would have a big bulls-eye on his back telling liberals that he's the guy to put pressure on and get to buckle when you want your legislation to be "bipartisan."

So if all you care about is defeating Tom Perriello, go ahead, support Rob Hurt. But if you want to actually win and push a conservative agenda in Congress, keep your options open.

Verga Finds a Map, Does it Lead to Victory?

Since first entering the race for the 5th District Republican nomination and receiving my ridicule for campaigning outside of the 5th District, Laurence Verga appears to have found a map. He's used it to find his way to DC with the Jefferson Area Tea Party and will be traveling down to Danville tomorrow for an event that also features Virgil Goode, Feda Morton, and rob Hurt. Will Verga's map lead him to victory and back up to DC in January of 2011?

Maybe. It's enough to convince me that Verga has a legitimate shot at the nomination. Morton didn't make it up to DC but will also be in Danville on Saturday, showing a strong commitment to reaching out to the entire 5th District. Exactly what you'll need in order to win the nomination next year.

Here's what the Rob Hurt boosters overlook: the 5th District nomination will more than likely be decided at a convention, where anything can happen. The number of delegates will be dependent on Republican performance in the last two statewide elections- 2008 (McCain) and 2009 (McDonnell). So Albermarle, where McCain got 40%, carries more weight than Pittsylvania, where McCain got over 60%. The Hurt boosters (Hoosters!) also ignore that being State Senator from the Danville-Pittsylvania doesn't make you State Senator of all of Southside Virginia. Hurt will have to depend heavily on allies like Tucker Watkins to lock down the rest of Southside (Halifax, Mecklenburg, Prince Edward, etc.).

Also, the convention will eliminate minor candidates if the first ballot doesn't produce a winner. Candidates will need at least 5% support to stay in no matter what. So despite the crowded field, Hurt has to win with 50% + 1 support. In a primary, he could end up winning with 30 to 40 percent of the vote against divided opposition. He can't count on that in a convention. The host of solid conservative candidates from around the district have a chance to unite and block hurt at the convention.

Which is why Verga (among others) still stands a chance. Whoever is able to come off as the last man standing against Hurt has a good shot at the nomination. Could it be Verga? Boyd? Rees? Who knows. But I wouldn't count anyone out yet.

Possible Hurt Ethics SNAFU?

Looks like Robert Hurt has his Congressional website up and running. That was fast.

It even has the address to contact his campaign:

Post Office Box 2
10 North Main Street
Chatham, VA 24531
(434) 432-4600

I'm sure Hurt is hoping the check is already in the mail! But that address and phone number may look familiar to residents within Hurt's State Senate district.

If I may ever be of service to you, I hope that you will not hesitate to contact me at my legislative office in Chatham at (434)432-4600, where I live and practice law.

Wait, Hurt's listing his district office as his campaign office? Are Virginia's ethics laws so weak that members of the General Assembly can run for higher office from their district offices?