Winning Isn't Everything, It's The Only Thing

The announcement of State Senator Rob Hurt for the 5th District nomination has generated a buzz on the blogosphere. In blog, after blog, after blog, after blog, after blog, I see the same concern: Rob Hurt votes to raise taxes on Virginians. The Charlottesville Daily Progress echoed these concerns.

One possible problem for Hurt’s candidacy is that he voted in favor of a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004 that closed a gap in Virginia’s budget that threatened the state’s AAA bond rating and increased spending on education, public safety and mental health services.

The tax increase has been a sore spot for the Republican rank-and-file ever since. The issue has come up, for example, in this year’s gubernatorial race between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. McDonnell has criticized Deeds for backing the 2004 vote, saying it was the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history — and unnecessary.

The response I see everywhere, although often from the same one or two individuals, is that we MUST defeat Tom Perriello and Hurt is the ONLY Republican who can do so. Or at least the BEST challenger.

Look, winning isn't everything. It's the only thing. But you've got to know how to play the game. The game isn't over after the election. That's just the first half.

After a series of Democrat victories in Congressional elections and the election of Barack Obama Republicans could have just given up. Oh, we lost, that's it. Guess we'll just roll over and play dead until 2010. Although I have a lot of problems with the Republican leadership, they have not given up in fighting Obama and the Democrats tooth and nail. And the grassroots movement of Tea Party members and other American patriots fed up with big government have their back.

Elections are important. They are the foundation of our representative democracy. But once you get elected the battle has just begun. You have lobbyists, special interest groups, newspaper editorials, pundits, constituents, and your own Congressional peers all applying pressure to you. You think an election's bad? Try being a member of Congress.

Well, try being a member of Congress that worries about doing the right thing. If you don't worry about doing the right thing, if you don't worry about your constituents, you can just kick your feet up on your desk and wait to go vote the way Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner tell you to. No worries. But you no longer are an independence voice advocating for your constituents.

Being a conservative is about more than having the R next to your name on the ballot. It means you are an independent thinker that stands up to the leadership of either party, Democrat or Republican, when they do the wrong thing. It means having a spine.

It means not buckling under pressure and voting for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia.

The problem with RINOs like Rob Hurt and Dede Scozzafava up in upstate New York is that they buckle and give cover to Democrat legislation. Not only was Warner able to get through his massive tax increase he was able to claim it was bipartisan. And Hurt helped make that possible.

Is that the type of man we want to send to Congress to fight with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama? Hurt would have a big bulls-eye on his back telling liberals that he's the guy to put pressure on and get to buckle when you want your legislation to be "bipartisan."

So if all you care about is defeating Tom Perriello, go ahead, support Rob Hurt. But if you want to actually win and push a conservative agenda in Congress, keep your options open.

Verga Finds a Map, Does it Lead to Victory?

Since first entering the race for the 5th District Republican nomination and receiving my ridicule for campaigning outside of the 5th District, Laurence Verga appears to have found a map. He's used it to find his way to DC with the Jefferson Area Tea Party and will be traveling down to Danville tomorrow for an event that also features Virgil Goode, Feda Morton, and rob Hurt. Will Verga's map lead him to victory and back up to DC in January of 2011?

Maybe. It's enough to convince me that Verga has a legitimate shot at the nomination. Morton didn't make it up to DC but will also be in Danville on Saturday, showing a strong commitment to reaching out to the entire 5th District. Exactly what you'll need in order to win the nomination next year.

Here's what the Rob Hurt boosters overlook: the 5th District nomination will more than likely be decided at a convention, where anything can happen. The number of delegates will be dependent on Republican performance in the last two statewide elections- 2008 (McCain) and 2009 (McDonnell). So Albermarle, where McCain got 40%, carries more weight than Pittsylvania, where McCain got over 60%. The Hurt boosters (Hoosters!) also ignore that being State Senator from the Danville-Pittsylvania doesn't make you State Senator of all of Southside Virginia. Hurt will have to depend heavily on allies like Tucker Watkins to lock down the rest of Southside (Halifax, Mecklenburg, Prince Edward, etc.).

Also, the convention will eliminate minor candidates if the first ballot doesn't produce a winner. Candidates will need at least 5% support to stay in no matter what. So despite the crowded field, Hurt has to win with 50% + 1 support. In a primary, he could end up winning with 30 to 40 percent of the vote against divided opposition. He can't count on that in a convention. The host of solid conservative candidates from around the district have a chance to unite and block hurt at the convention.

Which is why Verga (among others) still stands a chance. Whoever is able to come off as the last man standing against Hurt has a good shot at the nomination. Could it be Verga? Boyd? Rees? Who knows. But I wouldn't count anyone out yet.

Possible Hurt Ethics SNAFU?

Looks like Robert Hurt has his Congressional website up and running. That was fast.

It even has the address to contact his campaign:

Post Office Box 2
10 North Main Street
Chatham, VA 24531
(434) 432-4600

I'm sure Hurt is hoping the check is already in the mail! But that address and phone number may look familiar to residents within Hurt's State Senate district.

If I may ever be of service to you, I hope that you will not hesitate to contact me at my legislative office in Chatham at (434)432-4600, where I live and practice law.

Wait, Hurt's listing his district office as his campaign office? Are Virginia's ethics laws so weak that members of the General Assembly can run for higher office from their district offices?

Rob Hurt: Never Wrong!

A nasty regional divide is showing up in the fight for the 5th District nomination to take on Tom Perriello. Already, some in Southside Virginia seem to be acting like they run the 5th District and they don't need to reach out to the rest of the district. The pundits and reporters of the Southside newspapers fell into step today with a series of articles praising Rob Hurt for his conservative principles. Only the Charlottesville Daily Progress had the courage to highlight important concerns with Rob Hurt's record.

Let's be clear, this isn't a liberal-conservative divide. The Daily Progress is the only major paper in the 5th District that endorsed the entire Republican ticket of McCain-Gilmore-Goode last year in 2008. It's credentials are solid when compared to, say, the Danville Register & Bee (McCain-Warner-Perriello). As the newspaper of record for the liberal island of Charlottesville, the Daily Progress knows a RINO when it sees one.

One possible problem for Hurt’s candidacy is that he voted in favor of a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004 that closed a gap in Virginia’s budget that threatened the state’s AAA bond rating and increased spending on education, public safety and mental health services.

The tax increase has been a sore spot for the Republican rank-and-file ever since. The issue has come up, for example, in this year’s gubernatorial race between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. McDonnell has criticized Deeds for backing the 2004 vote, saying it was the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history — and unnecessary.

“People have long memories, especially of such a difficult time politically,” said Keith Drake, a former Albemarle County GOP chairman and leader of the Albemarle Truth in Taxation Alliance. “[Hurt] was on the wrong side of that vote.”

Hurt’s support of the 2004 tax increase, Drake said, could be a factor when the district’s Republican voters choose their nominee in a convention. Conventions, he pointed out, tend to draw a small number of hardcore party members who have strong feelings about the issue.

Hurt acknowledged that the 2004 tax vote still irritates many Republicans, but he said it was necessary, based on the information lawmakers had at the time, to avoid a government shutdown over budget gridlock.

“I was convinced at the time, based on what I knew, that it was something that had to be done,” he said. “I hated the vote, but I felt it was necessary at the time."

In the middle of a heated election for Governor, Rob Hurt decided to announce his run for Congress knowing that it would bring up his support for the 2004 tax increase. This tax increase has become a defining issue in the Gubernatorial race. And yet Hurt is defending it and undermining the nominee of his own party less than a month before the election! Instead of admitting he cast the wrong vote, Hurt is throwing his own party's nominee for Governor under the bus!

The Southside establishment is a good old boy network that only cares that Hurt is "one of us." They are not offering the principled and conservative leadership this district needs. I can only hope that the grassroots movement of conservatives rising up in opposition to Obama and the Democrat Congress will be strong enough to block Hurt's nomination and ensure a true conservative defeats Tom Perriello.

But here's my question for the Hurt fans. How can Hurt claim to be a Pittsylvania native if he was born in New York City?

The Fall of the Dollar & The Next Bubble

Robert Fisk reports that a host of countries are looking at replacing the dollar at the currency of international oil dealings with a basket of currencies, including gold. This would further reduce demand for the dollar and contribute to an even weaker dollar internationally. This will strengthen the growing carry trade built on low interest rates at the Fed.

The dollar, already plumbing its lowest levels of the year, is expected to continue to weaken even as an improving U.S. economy eventually leads the Federal Reserve to unwind more of its liquidity-boosting programs.

That's because the U.S. currency has increasingly been at the center of a so-called carry trade. With interest rates effectively at zero in the U.S., global investors seeking risks and higher returns are increasingly borrowing risk-free dollars to invest in higher-yielding currencies and assets, such as stocks, commodities, and emerging markets.

So the Federal Reserve, trying to boost the US economy, is practically giving money away to investors. But a weaker US dollar may be welcomed because it will help this carry trade.

The U.S. may “welcome” carry trades in dollars as returns overseas flow back to American investors, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

High returns generated in other countries will help the dollar maintain its status as the world’s reserve currency, even as the greenback weakens, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.

“A weak dollar should be welcomed, since it signals a recovery in the global economy and financial markets,” Shirakawa said by telephone today. “The U.S. will likely welcome dollar carry trades.”

In a carry trade, investors borrow in nations where interest rates are low and buy assets where returns are higher, profiting from the difference. Benchmark interest rates are as low as zero in the U.S. compared with 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand.

But wait, Credit Suisse argues that the carry trade will help secure the dollar as the world's reserve currency, while the first article argues that the shift away from the dollar as the currency for international oil trades will indicate a move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

What happens when both trends combine?

You'll have dirt cheap dollars from the Federal Reserve practically giving money away. You have the dollar with less global credibility as countries move away from using it as the world's reserve currency. The carry trade will still be there but the demand for dollars will drop. More dollars, less demand, mix, and you get an even weaker dollar. Rinse and repeat.

And the response from the big corporations and global investors like Credit Suisse?

Everything is great! Returns on international investment (speculation) are the only way for the US economy to pull out of the economic crisis, they'll say. Keep other countries more money, don't worry about investing in America. You Americans have moved beyond manufacturing and actually making things, just focus on giving us your money and everything will be fine!

The result, of course, will be the next big asset bubble. With the rise of a global middle class based in Asia (primarily India and China) the need for expanded extraction of natural resources will turn to South America and Africa (and perhaps the Arctic). While the carry trade overall includes international investments, the concentration will be in natural resource extraction in the Southern Hemisphere. China is already looking at Africa for oil, for example.

And what will be backing up this asset bubble? Just like the last housing bubble it will be the US government. The one thing the dollar will still have going for it is the backing of the US government. Not because the US government is so trustworthy, but because the US military will still have the ability to back up US investments. A populist uprising threatening key oil investments in West Africa? Call in the Marines. The more our financial system is tied up in the international asset bubble, the more our military will be called on to play the role of the world's policeman. Which will just further contribute to the bankruptcy of this nation.

This isn't just the fall of the dollar, this may well be the fall of the United States.

Thoughts on the GOP Nomination in the 5th District

Southside Central tries to "rank" the current Republican challengers to Tom Perriello by giving them all 0% chance at being the actual nominee. He gives Rob Hurt at 99% chance. He obviously hasn't been watching the grassroots movement sweeping the nation of Americans upset at the status quo in Washington. This movement isn't just anti-Democrat, it's anti-big government.

To assume that Hurt has the nomination locked up ignores history. Back in 1996 when Goode was first running as a Democrat the Republicans recruited then Delegate Frank Ruff to run. And guess what? He lost at the convention. The 5th District may be conservative, but it's also independent and has a mind of its own.

I also disagree with his emphasis on Southside. Sure, it would be nice to run a campaign that focuses only on Southside, run up the margins, and swamp Perriello in the end. But Perriello is the incumbent now and will have a significant advantage next time around. I don't think the NRCC will do all the fundraising for the challenger to Perriello, not even for Hurt. They are looking at races around the country and will prioritize. Sure, they may be making promises to Hurt right now but they are just the sweet seducing songs of sirens.

Tommy Boy may very well still win if the GOP nominee focuses only on Southside Virginia. First, that leaves Perriello unchallenged in the Charlottesville area and he'll be able to run up an even higher margin in the area as the Republican base feels ignored and neglected. Second, any candidate who thinks they can just rest on their state legislature laurels will be missing out parts of Southside. Any candidate, including Rob Hurt, will have to work to introduce himself to Bedford, to Appomattox, to Halifax, to Charlotte, to Lunenburg, and so forth. Third, the people of the counties he already represents or represented have no where near the same attachment to him, a minor State Senator who has rarely faced strong challengers, as they did to Virgil Goode. And guess what, Goode lost.

What we need is a conservative candidate with vim and vigor. Having waited to long to annouce, I'm starting to question Hurt's vim and vigor. I only have two candidates right now that have impressed me. Bradley Rees may not have political experience but he has vim and vigor. And Ken Boyd seems to have strong conservative credentials and a proven track record of taking on the liberals in the lion's den of Albemarle County. I'll have to keep my eye on the others.

With vim and vigor Perriello will be challenged everywhere, including and especially Charlottesville. With vim and vigor all of Southside will be excited and energized about the election. Republicans will have a reason to come out and vote for SOMEONE, not just a fear that they have to come out and vote AGAINST someone. I have a lot of problems with how Bush managed the country like a big spending liberal, but one thing I can say in his defense was he knew how to campaign. He got conservatives fired up. McCain didn't and we lost Virginia for the first time since 1964. Let that be a lesson to us all.

Vote for Conservatives, Not Republicans

It may come as a surprise but I consider myself a conservative first and foremost and a Republican only by accident. Voting for a conservative, regardless of party label, is more important than voting for a Republican. I have no problem with voting for a conservative Democrat, if you can find me one. Or a conservative Independent. Or a conservative Whig. Or even a conservative Mugwump.

So that's why I'm in full support of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the special election in New York's 23rd district. The "Republican" candidate is a liberal and total RINO. Don't believe me. Check out her latest supporter: liberal blogger Markos.

Sure, she is a Republican, and opposes the public option. But she's been willing to raise taxes when budgets require it, and is to the left of most Democrats on social issues (including supporting gay marriage).

Markos also notes she's been supported by the Working Families Party in the past. This Working Families Party. She's not just a moderate Republican, she's an out and out liberal who has somehow managed to secure the Republican Party nomination.

I have no problem voting for a third party conservative even if the Republicans are in a close election. It's not worth it to help elect a liberal mole who will work from inside our Grand Old Party to destroy America. I feel that way about New York Liberal Dede Scozzafava. And if he runs, I'll feel the same way about New York Liberal Rob Hurt.

Recently I had some heated criticism for the latest candidate in the 5th District of Virginia, Michael McPadden. I stand by my remarks but still welcome him warmly to the race. But I do want to highlight a response to my remarks that he posted at Bill Hays's blog.

The point of my article wasn’t to say that Democrats are always bad for small business and Republicans are always good. The point was that in statewide and especially national politics voting for the party makes more sense, than voting for individuals, and in the case of the small farmer and small businessman, the Republicans are the horse to bet on in this race. I probably did not make that point as clear as I could have. I will do better in the future.

. . .

Once again when it comes to national politics I stand by my original statement. If you are a small farmer, a family farmer, an organic farmer, or a micro farmer, I have news for you. The Democrats are not your friends. Big government (read Democrat party) is at war with the independence and freedom that comes with being a small businessman and a small farmer. Learn it, live it, love it.

Here is my advice for Michael McPadden, who honestly seems not only half way there but maybe three quarters to the right message. It's not a question of just Democrat versus Republican. Almost, but not 100%. Just look at this race in New York. You have three candidates. You could say you have a Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent. But you could also say you have two liberals and one conservative.

The fight in national politics is between liberals and conservatives. Yes most of the liberals are Democrats. But a handful are Republicans! Frankly I'm more on guard against liberal Republicans than I am against liberal Democrats. And in a Republican Party nomination fight, which McPadden just joined as one of five, focusing on your conservative credentials is more important to me than attacking Perriello. We already know he's a liberal. Now tell me why you're better than the other guys running.