With the election of Bob McDonnell as Governor only weeks away (and don't forget Bolling and Cuccinelli!), I wanted to look ahead to the next big race--the 5th District convention that will nominate the Republican challenger to Tom Perriello. Based on my understanding of the rules, a convention would allocate delegates to each locality based on the number of votes received by McCain and McDonnell (the last Presidential and the last Gubernatorial elections). Since we don't know what McDonnell's victory will look like (8 points? 14 points?) I'm going to use Kilgore's 2005 numbers. The formula is based on how many votes in each locality, not how Republican the locality is, so it doesn't matter that Kilgore did worse than McDonnell will do. What matters is the relative strengths and weaknesses from locality to locality, which I just don't think I can predict.
Here's what I came up with.
Albemarle County: 63 Delegates
Appomattox County: 15 Delegates
Bedford County: 38 Delegates
Bedford City: 5 Delegates
Brunswick County: 7 Delegates
Buckingham County: 11 Delegates
Campbell County: 53 Delegates
Charlotte County: 11 Delegates
Charlottesville City: 12 Delegates
Cumberland County: 8 Delegates
Danville City: 27 Delegates
Fluvanna County: 20 Delegates
Franklin County: 47 Delegates
Greene County: 15 Delegates
Halifax County: 27 Delegates
Henry County: 27 Delegates
Lunenburg County: 9 Delegates
Martinsville City: 7 Delegates
Mecklenburg County: 23 Delegates
Nelson County: 12 Delegates
Pittsylvania County: 58 Delegates
Prince Edward County: 13 Delegates
I'll be posting my thoughts on what this means for the nomination later . . .
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Hmmm, what it means to me is that we're going to see a pretty even split in the counties as to who they nominate. But that ultimately, unless local people storm the local republican conventions, and get themselves nominated as delegates, then we will probably see the good old boys (the guys who are retired and participate in politics as a hobby, those same old farts who have been giving us the same old party machines) give us a Rob Hurt nomination. And I hope that your readers are cognizant of what that would mean for our district. More of the same RINO crap.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to take some MAJOR footwork from people who don't have the time, energy, or charisma to be politically active--you know, b/c they have jobs, and families, and other "distractions"--and to step up to the plate and bring about some positive grassroots change.