First, let's talk about Perriello's base.
Perriello is looking at a natural base of 45% against a generic Republican . . .
The conclusion is that Perriello is in a strong position right now, hovering around 45% of the vote. Within the poll, Republican candidates with name ID are able to bring home higher numbers of the Republican base to pull even with Perriello. Pulling even is mostly a matter of switching Republicans from undecided to voting Republican. By pulling off 3% to 5% of voters, having a known Republican candidate changes the balance of undecided voters. We now have undecided Republicans down to 6% to 4%, about even with undecided Democrats (5%). And about even with undecided Independents (6%).
It is important to note that only one candidate, Virgil Goode, is able to make a significant dent in Perriello's performance. Everyone else, including Robert Hurt, are competitive only because they bring home assorted Republicans and Independents who are undecided in when polled about Republicans with low name ID. Seriously folks, Perriello is almost at victory already despite being a DEMOCRAT that voted for the stimulus, cap and tax, and Pelosi's health care boondoggle. And he's been attacked over and over again. And again. And again.
This guy isn't going to be pushed over. Unless we talk Virgil into returning, Perriello is going to be very competitive against any Republican. And don't try to fool yourself into believing that maybe someone like Hurt can pick off Perriello's supporters once he becomes more well known. We're talking about people who already are favoring Perriello after a year of his radically liberal agenda. People who already believe his liberal lies. And he's got close to a million on hand to spend selling his lies while the Republican candidate tries to define himself. Only Virgil has the existing positive reputation among even misguided Democrats to win some of them over.