Monday, February 22, 2010

Explaining VA-05, Part I: Perriello's Base

My post, the MOST COMPREHENSIVE analysis of PPP's VA-05 poll, seems to have confused people who don't have a reading level higher than a fifth grader's. So I'm going to try to break it up and make it really, really, really simple for everyone.

First, let's talk about Perriello's base.

Perriello is looking at a natural base of 45% against a generic Republican . . .

The conclusion is that Perriello is in a strong position right now, hovering around 45% of the vote. Within the poll, Republican candidates with name ID are able to bring home higher numbers of the Republican base to pull even with Perriello. Pulling even is mostly a matter of switching Republicans from undecided to voting Republican. By pulling off 3% to 5% of voters, having a known Republican candidate changes the balance of undecided voters. We now have undecided Republicans down to 6% to 4%, about even with undecided Democrats (5%). And about even with undecided Independents (6%).

It is important to note that only one candidate, Virgil Goode, is able to make a significant dent in Perriello's performance. Everyone else, including Robert Hurt, are competitive only because they bring home assorted Republicans and Independents who are undecided in when polled about Republicans with low name ID. Seriously folks, Perriello is almost at victory already despite being a DEMOCRAT that voted for the stimulus, cap and tax, and Pelosi's health care boondoggle. And he's been attacked over and over again. And again. And again.

This guy isn't going to be pushed over. Unless we talk Virgil into returning, Perriello is going to be very competitive against any Republican. And don't try to fool yourself into believing that maybe someone like Hurt can pick off Perriello's supporters once he becomes more well known. We're talking about people who already are favoring Perriello after a year of his radically liberal agenda. People who already believe his liberal lies. And he's got close to a million on hand to spend selling his lies while the Republican candidate tries to define himself. Only Virgil has the existing positive reputation among even misguided Democrats to win some of them over.


  1. I think your conclusion that Robert Hurt only polls well becasue he brings together assorted independents and republicans who are undecided when polled with republicans who have low name ID is misguided. Currently Hurt is tied with TP with only 12% undecided. I was confused to see the PPP not do a TP v. VG head to head, and if they did i missed it while reading the final results.

    I dont think that Virgil is the only one who can save us here. No one is really paying attention to this race yet, and i dont think that TP will improve between now and November.

    Hurt has the money and the base support on the southside to rid us of TP. However, if Virgil decides to get in (NOT LIKELY) then everyone other candidate needs to get out.

    Also, a serious third party run is unlikey because they will have to file to run before June 8th. Who is going to do this? Verga thinks he is the tea party candidate and that he will get the nomination. McKelvey thinks he can use his money and good consultants to get the nomination. Feda would not be a serious contender as a third party. Boyd thinks he can will and wont drop out. McPadden is in the same boat as Boyd, and Ferrin would not be a serious contender.

  2. did you see the NYTines article posted on va.5thwatchdog? the OFA, Organizing for America, an arm of the DNC is sending their volunteers to 2 places: Colorado to save US Senator Mike Bennet & to our 5th District to protect Perriello.

    who has the money & the smarts to compete against the Perriello machine? Robert Hurt.

  3. Only Hurt can beat the Dem-Libs massive attempt to re-elect their darling little Pelosi-Perriello!