Tuesday, February 16, 2010

New Independent Poll Confirms GOP Primary Toss-Up

Back in January, Albemarle Supervisor Ken Boyd released a poll of the Republican primary showing surprising strength in the multi-candidate field.

-If the primary were held today and the turnout was low, I would win with 21% to only 10% for Senator Robert Hurt and 4% or less for Feda Morton and the other candidates.

-If the primary were held today and the turnout was very high, Senator Hurt would win with 23% of the vote with me coming in second place at 10%.

After the initial release I became critical of Boyd's campaign for not releasing more information on the poll. Now we have a new poll from Public Policy Polling that confirms much of Boyd's poll:

Hurt's polling at 22% to 12% for Ken Boyd. The rest of the candidates are getting 2-4% and you could probably argue that the real leader right now is undecided at 51%.

PPP's poll of "likely" Republican primary votes probably falls within the high turnout scenario. It's notoriously hard to predict turnout in Virginia primaries because of historically low turnout. I think PPP is overestimating turnout, but we'll see. While Hurt and Boyd are in the top tier of the primary with double digit support, the real winner remains undecided.

We now have two independent snapshots of the Republican primary and they are both telling the same story. State Senator Robert Hurt remains the front runner from higher name ID, but Boyd is close behind. This snapshot is the start of the race, before any major expenditures related to mail, television, or radio. Hurt has the cash to run a strong campaign, as do Verga and McKelvey. Boyd continues to build a professional team that will aid him in the primary. As I've noted before, money is a lot but it isn't everything.


  1. Perhaps Verga will apologize for saying Boyd's poll was a put up job-

    OK, even I don't believe Verga would do that.

  2. isn't McKelvey the one that loaned himself $500,000? is he getting his name out to people? is he having Lunenburg events?