Post-Primary Thoughts

Nothing deep, just some observations.

First, with 35,307 total voters coming out for a turnout of just about 8%, I have to say that this primary had lower turnout than expected based on past competitive House primaries in Virginia. AND the turnout was lower than originally projected by the Hurt campaign. But if you look at other primaries in Virginia, including the crazy challenge to Wittman in the 1st, it's about the same. Which tells me that this is what you'd expect from any primary, even a low profile one like the 1st.

Conclusion: For all of the talk about the Tea Partiers bringing in lots of new voters there was . . . nothing. #Fail. Your usual set of folks came out and voted for your usual guy. State Senator Robert Hurt. Who won with just under 50% of the vote.

Second, with 17,104 voters coming out for Robert Hurt, just over a third of them were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt's backyard. To give you a comparison, 20% of all votes in the primary were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania. And in 2008, 16% of voters in the 5th were in Danville and Pittsylvania.

Talking about people voting for their local candidate. Boyd won Albemarle and Morton won Fluvanna. But Hurt managed to pull off victory in Charlottesville and run second in both Albemarle and Fluvanna. So I'm revoking what I said earlier about lower expectations for Hurt in the northern end. He totally showed his ability to bring home some voters in the north. Anyone who voted against him in the north had a fair opportunity to hear about him and make the decision to vote against him.

McKelvey won Greene, Cumberland, Buckingham, Bedford County and City, and Franklin (essentially a tie with Hurt). And I'll throw in that he practically tied Hurt in Campbell County!

Outside of his home base of Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt did worst in the localities where Perriello performed the best relative to typical Democratic performance in 2008. In other words, in localities where Perriello was picking up his largest numbers of McCain voters, the Republican primary voters yesterday backed someone other than Robert Hurt. In localities where McCain voters were more solid for Virgil Goode, the Republican primary voters backed Robert Hurt.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The strongest Hurt supporters I've encountered online tend to view Perriello as a Pelosi clone and they refuse to accept that he may have any appeal to independent voters. The strongest Hurt opponents I've encountered online will admit that Perriello is an impressive Representative who stands up for what he thinks is right and has some appeal to people who aren't card carrying Communists in the People's Republic of Charlottesville.

Tuesday Predictions . . . And An Endorsement!!

By this time tomorrow the polls will have closed across Virginia and we'll be starting to wait for election returns to come in from the Old Dominion. Here in the 5th District of Virginia we've had the privilege, or curse, of watching a spirited and sometimes dirty primary among seven Republicans trying to win opportunity, or misfortune, of taking on Democrat Tom Perriello. This past Saturday, the Democrat Party officially nominated Tom Perriello to be their party's candidate for the 5th District of Virginia. Over the past year and a half, Perriello has raised almost $2 million and is sitting on a pile of cash worth almost $1.7 million.

Perriello is well positioned for the general election. Last week I gave some tough love to Robert Hurt by pointing out that he has voted to raise (some) taxes, not just the 2004 budget deal. He's not a liberal Democrat, he's a moderate Republican with some conservative credentials. But he's no Rand Paul or Sarah Palin.

Here is my tough love for my fellow Republicans about Perriello. Talk all you want about how he is a Pelosi clone, the real voters of the 5th District know he's not a knee-jerk Democrat. Take a look at the record. Yes, Perriello voter for the pork-filled stimulus, cap and tax, and the government take over of health care. But he's been very blunt about his support for these policies and hasn't tried to hide from them. Just a little bit to the east, Glenn Nye is running as a Democrat but doing everything possible to distance himself from Pelosi. He claims to oppose cap and tax and socialist health care, but in his letters to constituents he talked about how great cap and tax is. Politician insiders like Glenn Nye will tell you exactly what you want to hear, which is why you can't trust them. At least Perriello tells you what he believes.

And so when Perriello votes against his own party I believe he actually is doing what he thinks is right, not a political stunt to win voters for reelection. When he votes to defend the 2nd Amendment I believe that he really is pro-gun rights. When he votes against federal funding of abortion I believe him that he really does oppose federal funding of abortion. When he votes for a permanent bailout fund for Wall Street executives at the expense of the taxpayers I think he's doing what he thinks is right.

So this is going to be a tough reelection fight. I think Perriello has done everything possible to keep his Democrat base happy. And I think he's set himself up to win over the moderate voters that first put him into office. And maybe even pick up a few more.

When Robert Hurt first threw his hat into the ring I was distrustful. And here is my first Tuesday prediction. Tomorrow night an establishment Republican will fall short of the majority in his Republican primary. No, I'm not talking about Robert Hurt. I'm talking about South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, who I first blogged about last year. Bob Inglis will go into a runoff, where he will almost certainly be defeated for the GOP nomination.

Congressman Bob Inglis is what Robert Hurt could be in the future. No one can fault Inglis for being a liberal. He's just a career politician who, despite being a Republican, has some moderate and left-leaning instincts. He voted for TARP. He's not comfortable with the grassroots conservatives in the Tea Parties. He's the type of Republican who doesn't attract much notice until the going gets tough. And then he buckles and votes for bigger government. Just like Robert Hurt, who was virtually unimportant until his 2004 vote for higher taxes.

I don't want to put someone like Inglis into office if I can stop it from happening. The problem with Inglis is that he doesn't care that his vote for TARP doomed his reelection chances. He knows that the establishment will take care of him. He's got a nice retirement, maybe a job as a lobbyist, or a political appointee. There's no accountability when members like Inglis don't care if they vote for bigger government. Hurt could do the same. Get elected, serve for years, and then vote for another bailout. Sure, we'd get angry and vote him out, but would that really punish him when he's just going to go to K Street and get a cushy job?

So that's been my biggest concern for Hurt. My other concern is his hire of a ruthless mudslinging political operative who I won't mention here. I don't like negative personal campaigns. I don't want Perriello to win, but I will be voting for Jeff Clark if Hurt runs a negative campaign against Perriello that focuses on him personality and not politically.

Over the last week I've been preparing for the general election by setting mental benchmarks for Hurt. If he campaigns dirty, he won't get my vote. If he campaigns as the true conservative he isn't, he won't get my vote. If he's honest about who he is, he'll get my vote.

I was getting ready to type up a post tonight endorsing the most viable opponent to Hurt, Jim McKelvey. That was until I heard about his pre-primary antics of having a recording of Virgil Goode talk him up, despite the lack of a Goode endorsement. That's the lack of honor and integrity I worried Hurt's adviser would bring and it has totally alienated me. So, here is my endorsement, based on my fears that Hurt will betray the conservative base of the GOP and my belief that McKelvey has run a dirty campaign.

I will be writing in Virgil Goode.

Feda Kidd Morton = Jo Ann Davis?

Months ago, I wrote that it was difficult to rule anyone out of the Republican primary because the low turnout will give some candidates a chance despite their poor fundraising.

Cantor spent around $800,000 and won by a nose, 263 votes, against State Senator Martin in a primary that was practically 50%-50%. Martin barely raised $200,000 in the primary and Eric Cantor also had the support of the Republican establishment with the backing of then Governor Jim Gilmore. And he barely, just barely, won.

The story is similar but slightly different in the 1st District that same year, when Jo Ann Davis defeated Paul Jost for the Republican nomination. Jost dropped almost $1 million into the primary, Davis barely spent $100,000. Jost also had the support of Jim Gilmore. But Davis pulled out a victory and went on to serve in Congress.

I also noted why this would particularly help Feda Kidd Morton as the leading candidate of the social conservatives.

Anyone who has worked in local politics knows the difference that social conservatives can make for the Republican Party. I remember talking to my few liberal friends back in the 1990s when social conservatives were making a strong effort to win at the local level on school boards and boards of supervisors. My liberal friends were shocked that such "extremists" were somehow winning by strong margins.

Social conservatives matter because they are active members of their community. They go to church, they are involved in the PTA, their kids play baseball or soccer. They are the neighbor you depend on when you go away and you need someone to feed the cats or just watch the house. When they run for local office everyone knows them. Liberals aren't active in their communities, they don't volunteer, they don't go to church, they don't have families and kids.

With her experience on the school board, Feda Morton knows what it takes to get conservatives involved at the grassroots level. For all of the talk about the Tea Party movement, there's also a wing of the Republican Party that's just as scared by Obama's proposal to allow gays in the military. Or to pass a huge socialist health care package that will fund abortions with your taxpayer dollars. The 5th District has these hard working conservatives, like Tim Boyer over in Campbell County.

Now others are making comparisons to Jo Ann Davis when talking about Feda's campaign. State Delegate Brenda Pogge compared Feda to the former Congresswoman in her endorsement. And I think there is a compelling case to compare how Jo Ann Davis won in her primary by focusing on positive conservative values while two well funded candidates destroyed each other.

Feda may not have the money that other candidates have. She hasn't been a wealthy real estate developer, she's a simple but dedicated teacher. But that may be the difference in the primary. Having the support of dedicated church goers and community members in this low turnout primary could be enough. I don't expect more than the 40,000 to 50,000 voters that came out in the 1st and 7th during similar circumstances. I think victory could come around 15,000 votes or so. Does Feda have that? We'll soon find out.

Time to Cull the Herd!

The Second Lump Report is out ranking the candidates in the Republican Primary field.

Let us once again clarify to the those who are unfamiliar with the TEA Party movement, the political foundation and focus are; (1) limited government, (2) fiscal responsibility, (3) free and fair markets, (4) individual liberty base on personal responsibility, and (5) a return to constitutional governance. We, the TEA Party, believe these constitutional principles, as well as others, have been consistently disregarded by the current, and past administrations.

That's great, and their rankings provide some insight into how to cull the herd of candidates:

McPadden: 3.5 lumps
McKelvey: 3.5 lumps
Verga: 3 lumps
Boyd: 2 lumps
Morton: 1.5 lumps
Hurt: 1.5 lumps
Ferrin: 0.5 lumps

Ferrin and Morton have to drop out, now. Hurt isn't going to drop out, so if we want a chance at defeating him in the Republican Primary we need to reduce the number of candidates. Ferrin and Morton don't have money, don't have any name ID, and don't have the support of the conservative grassroots. I think McPadden needs to drop out too, but I understand he's a grassroots favorite. I also think McKelvey should consider a plan to drop out now to prepare a run for seat as an independent, as he has the resources and willingness to give it a go.

Also, here's their take on Goode:

Although Mr. Goode is not a candidate, the TEA Party leaders included him in their discussions, and “IF he were a candidate to recapture the seat he held for 12 years as many TEA Party and other VA5th district voters wish, he would garner a minimum of 4 Lumps.

Agreed!