Nothing deep, just some observations.
First, with 35,307 total voters coming out for a turnout of just about 8%, I have to say that this primary had lower turnout than expected based on past competitive House primaries in Virginia. AND the turnout was lower than originally projected by the Hurt campaign. But if you look at other primaries in Virginia, including the crazy challenge to Wittman in the 1st, it's about the same. Which tells me that this is what you'd expect from any primary, even a low profile one like the 1st.
Conclusion: For all of the talk about the Tea Partiers bringing in lots of new voters there was . . . nothing. #Fail. Your usual set of folks came out and voted for your usual guy. State Senator Robert Hurt. Who won with just under 50% of the vote.
Second, with 17,104 voters coming out for Robert Hurt, just over a third of them were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt's backyard. To give you a comparison, 20% of all votes in the primary were cast in Danville and Pittsylvania. And in 2008, 16% of voters in the 5th were in Danville and Pittsylvania.
Talking about people voting for their local candidate. Boyd won Albemarle and Morton won Fluvanna. But Hurt managed to pull off victory in Charlottesville and run second in both Albemarle and Fluvanna. So I'm revoking what I said earlier about lower expectations for Hurt in the northern end. He totally showed his ability to bring home some voters in the north. Anyone who voted against him in the north had a fair opportunity to hear about him and make the decision to vote against him.
McKelvey won Greene, Cumberland, Buckingham, Bedford County and City, and Franklin (essentially a tie with Hurt). And I'll throw in that he practically tied Hurt in Campbell County!
Outside of his home base of Danville and Pittsylvania, Hurt did worst in the localities where Perriello performed the best relative to typical Democratic performance in 2008. In other words, in localities where Perriello was picking up his largest numbers of McCain voters, the Republican primary voters yesterday backed someone other than Robert Hurt. In localities where McCain voters were more solid for Virgil Goode, the Republican primary voters backed Robert Hurt.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. The strongest Hurt supporters I've encountered online tend to view Perriello as a Pelosi clone and they refuse to accept that he may have any appeal to independent voters. The strongest Hurt opponents I've encountered online will admit that Perriello is an impressive Representative who stands up for what he thinks is right and has some appeal to people who aren't card carrying Communists in the People's Republic of Charlottesville.