Monday, November 2, 2009

Three Strikes And You're Out Creigh!!

Predictions for tomorrow's election:

Bob McDonnell (R): 58%
Creigh Deeds (D): 42%

Bill Bolling (R): 56%
Jody Wagner (D): 44%

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 61%
Steve Shannon (R): 39%

Big picture prediction: The energy of the conservative grassroots will ensure that the Republican ticket experiences far less ballot drop off than the Democrats. There will be many Democrats who hold their nose to come out and vote for Deeds and then leave from the voting booth as quickly as possible. But on the Republican side Cuccinelli will be giving conservatives a strong reason to go down the ticket. This lingering effect will help local Republicans in House of Delegates elections too.

House of Delegations Predictions:


3rd (Morefield over Bowling)
32rd (Greason over Poisson)
21st (Villanueva over Mathieson)
23rd (Garrett over Valentine)
51st (Anderson over Nichols)
64th (Clark over Barlow)
67th (LeMunyon over Caputo)
83rd (Stolle over Bouchard)

CLOSE CALLS (Narrow Democratic Holds)

34th (Vanderhye over Comstock)
35th (Keam over Hyland)

DEMOCRATIC PICK-UPS (Few and far between!)

52nd (Torian over Lopez)
42nd (Werkheiser over Albo)


14th (Democrat Seward Anderson vs. Republican Danny Marshall)


Why watch the 14th? Because I'm hearing that the complete and total failure of the "Deeds Country" strategy and the surging McDonnell support in the suburbs has left Republicans in ROVA (Rest of Virginia) a little complacent. >Danville Republicans have had to trot out Virgil Goode from his Perriello retirement to call on his mostly old white audience to come out and vote tomorrow. Local Republicans in Danville are worried that the lack of statewide attention and resources could tip the scales to Anderson if there isn't local energy and enthusiasm to come out and vote for a Republican ticket, including Marshall. This could allow Anderson to narrowly win, but more than likely Goode's last minute rally will save the GOP in Southside.

The Big Picture

What is the cause of this overwhelming catastrophe for the Democratic Party?

Strike One, Bob McDonnell is energizing the Republican base. John McCain was unable to do this because of his history of being a "maverick" by attacking the conservative base on issues like immigration. There is a significant chunk of voters that checked out in 2008 who will be showing up in 2009 and they are favoring McDonnell almost two to one. This is accounting for about three to four points of McDonnell's lead.

Strike Two, Creigh Deeds isn't energizing the Democratic base. It's one thing if McDonnell were energizing the conservative base but Deeds could depend on the liberal base. But Deeds is actually depressing the liberal base with his stands against the public option and cap & tax. This is about five to six points of McDonnell's lead.

Strike Three, Bob McDonnell is winning over Obama Republicans in the suburbs. I won't go into the details, but this is making up about seven to eight points of McDonell's lead.

Net result? Three strikes and you're out Creigh!

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