If holding a primary to ensure that our men and women in uniform overseas can vote absentee is so important to the establishment of the Republican Party, why did we nominate our 2009 candidates through a convention? Why was the 2008 Senate fight between Bob Marshall and Jim Gilmore decided at a convention? Sure, we've used primaries like in 2004. But the Republican Party of Virginia is just as likely to pick up a convention for important statewide elections. Let's not pretend that one side in this fight is high and mighty, both are making arguments because of their desire to win. That's the bottom line.
Hurt's side argues the turnout could be as high as 50,000. Maybe, maybe not. Those numbers are based on very competitive Republican primary elections in 2000. It could be as low as 30,000. The spin from the decision to hold a primary instead of a convention has been that this favors Hurt. However, I think Andy Sere at the NRCC has some personal experience with Republican candidates that managed to win primaries against establishment Republicans. He should be worried.
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Strong Agree on your first paragraph. The "desire for complete absentee balloting" is total bullshit. It works as great spin, but that wasn't the motivation.
ReplyDeleteStrong Disagree on your last sentence. Sere isn't worried. In fact, I'm betting he's enjoying a relaxing Sunday afternoon because everything's going as planned.
SSC, I'm saying Sere should be worried. And I was setting up a future post talking about Sere's experience working for a conservative Republican candidate who knocked up an entrenched incumbent Republican because of a vote to raise taxes. Stay tuned!
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