New Challenger to Perriello Fumbles, Falters, Fails.

The word on the Internet is that a new challenger to Tom Perriello has emerged: Michael McPadden. That makes five official candidates so far: Bradley Rees, Laurence Verga, Feda Morton, Ken Boyd, and now Michael McPadden. Tucker Watkins's cup runneth over!

Now McPadden, like Rees, is something of a blogger. So I decided to check out his latest rants and ramblings to get a better understanding of the man who would be Congressman.

Three words.

Fumbles, Falters, Fails.

First, where in the world (or reality) is Hoduras? If Verga needs a map of the district then McPadden needs a map of the world.

Second, take a look at his discussion of an important local issue in the Virginia 5th: locally grown foods. An odd mixture of mostly rural counties with the crunchy city of Charlottesville, the 5th is the type of place where the local foods movement carries some degree of clout. Check out VICFA, the Virginia Independent Consumers and Farmers Association, for more information.. Here's what McPadden has to say:

I noticed that at this years annual farm food voices event hosted by Virginia Independent Consumers and Farmers association (VICFA) there were three politicians in attendance; Creigh Deeds, Tom Perriello, and Cynthia Neff, all democrats. I have no doubt that these three were invited by VICFA but the question is why? The two biggest issues on the VICFA website are HR2749 and NAIS. These two issues are like kryptonite to these people.

HR 2749 is called the “Food Safety Enhancement Act”, which does nothing to enhance the safety of anything except the size of big government. This bill is an anathema to small farmers and gardeners everywhere. The bottom line on this bill is that if you have a small farm or even a small vegetable garden in the back yard the government now has the right to inspect that garden in the name of food safety, without need of that bothersome search warrant thingy or any other paperwork. I know that this sounds too Orwellian, but it is true. NAIS is the National Animal Identification System. This is just another big government plan to control the production of farm animals. Yes if you have a chicken in the backyard you will be included and there will be paperwork to be filled out.

The funny part here is that these are both big government democrat plans. They were both introduced by democrats and they were both supported primarily by democrats, which brings us back to the question of why would VICFA be inviting democrats to their annual gathering? They should have used the opportunity to throw rotten tomatoes at them.

If you are a small farmer, a family farmer, an organic farmer, or a micro farmer, I have news for you. The Democrats are not your friends. Big government (read Democrat party) is at war with the independence and freedom that comes with being a small businessman and a small farmer. Learn it, live it, love it.

Now let's look at this objectively. I don't know and don't care about Cynthia Neff's views on this issue. But Creigh Deeds has been out in front on this issue and in a good way:

In the General Assembly session that will kick off this week, State Senator Creigh Deeds will introduce an amendment to the state code that regulates the inspections required to operate a food establishment. Deeds’ amendment would exclude “[p]rivate homes where the resident processes and prepares food products, provided that such products (i) are sold to an individual for his own consumption; (ii) are labeled ‘NOT FOR RESALE—PROCESSED AND PREPARED WITHOUT STATE INSPECTION’; and (iii) do not require a license for their production and sale.”

. . .

“If you and I as the consumer choose to buy that product and we’re aware that we’re buying at our own risk and from someone who has not met all the government regulations, we ought to be able to do that,” Deeds says. “It’s freedom of choice.”

Now here's Tom Perriello and again and again. And voting against H.R. 2749 and voting against it again.

McPadden attacks Perriello and Deeds for NAIS and H.R. 2749 because they are Democrats. He ignores that they have actually been very supportive of the local foods movement. This guilt by association is a disgusting tactic and I'm glad that other conservatives in the 5th District will have none of it. Here's Bill Hay attacking Cynthia Neff for her attempt to go after Rob Bell by lumping in all Republicans together.

What's even worse is McPadden is totally ignorant that NAIS was a REPUBLICAN IDEA created by the USDA under the Bush Administration.

How can McPadden be so out of touch?

Maybe it's his approach to politics. Here's his comment on why the local foods movement needs to be a Republican constituency:

I don't think that anyone should be surprised that the Democrats introduced and supported HB2749, they are the party of big government after all, but the Republicans are supposed to be the party of limited government and free markets, it says so on their website, if that then is part of your party platform how do you vote for this bill.

McPadden believes that if a party says something on their website and platform is must be true.

McPadden announces . . . .

fumbles . . .

falters . . .

FAILS.

Doug Wilder Didn't Endorse, But I Will

Here's Doug Wilder's non-endorsement in the gubernatorial race:

This is not the time in our Commonwealth to talk about any kind of tax increase, especially those that are fundamentally regressive and will hit hardest those who are struggling.

Rather, it is the time to put our fiscal house in order, strengthening the Commonwealth for the future.

Now is the time to replenish the “Rainy Day” fund which has bailed several administrations out of deficits, but will be all but depleted for future administrations to have at their avail. It is a time to do everything possible to let the public know that we are serious about getting a handle on spending and controlling it better. Re-examine the efficiency and effectiveness reports, previously administratively commissioned, draw from them, and make this reform agenda further known to the public. It is a time to return to the funding of “necessities” rather than “niceties”.

In the end, Governor Wilder declined to endorse anyone. Is this a victory for McDonnell? I'm not entirely sure. Given that Wilder didn't endorse Deeds in 2005 the status quo would bee a non-endorsement in the race. A Deeds endorsement would be a victory for Deeds and a McDonnell endorsement a victory for McDonnell. The status quo of no endorsement is pretty much a defeat for both candidates. That's just the way it is.

But if Doug Wilder doesn't want to endorse allow me to fill in with my own endorsement.

I am, of course, backing Bob McDonnell for Governor. McDonnell is arguably the last best hope Republicans have for saving Virginia as the Conservative Commonwealth.

It's easy to forget that Virginia has had only five Republican Governors in our modern two-party state. The first, Lindwood Holton, was a liberal Republican anomaly created by the old politics of a conservative Democratic party dominating the Solid South. It wasn't until Mills Godwin and other old conservative Democrats left the GOP that the Virginia Republican Party started to develop as the more conservative of the two parties in Virginia. But Godwin was helped by the rabid populist Henry Howell driving centrists and moderates into the arms of the Republican Party. And to pinpoint Godwin as the start of the modern Republican Party in Virginia creates a dark legacy of establishing the party's modern origins in the roots of Massive Resistance. In the end Godwin, for all of his racial and social conservatism, was the first governor to take Virginia off of its established "pay as you go" approach. In 1976 he backed Ford over the more conservative Ronald Reagan. His successor, John Dalton, is a virtual nonentity in Virginia history.

So having written off the first set of Republican Governors we are forced to turn to the 1990s for the profile of the modern Republican Party in Virginia: George Allen and Jim Gilmore. The early 1990s saw the rise of a Republican Party in Virginia based on cracking the base of rural white Democrats still clinging to a state party despite the march of liberalism to dominate the national Democrat Party. Very quickly, once they saw just how liberal even fellow Southern Bill Clinton would be in office, they abandoned the Democrat Party in droves. Today, Republicans are facing a reverse problem as suburban voters in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads are unhappy with the national image of the Republican Party created by the fiscal mismanagement of George W. Bush. We've seen this story before as those same voters left the Virginia Republican Party for Mark Warner following the end of Jim Gilmore's governorship.

If we don't learn from the mistakes of George Allen Jim Gilmore we'll be doomed once again.

I am a big fan of George Allen and look forward to his return to politics. But he was shackled with a Democratic legislature that forced him to shift away from his tax-cutting agenda later in his term. In 1996 the Cato Institute noted:

Allen's 1996 budget was a complete capitulation to the big spenders in the legislature: the tax cut was abandoned, school spending was increased by nearly $1 billion, and his request for funding for school vouchers was dropped. The budget Allen signed into law increases spending by 6 percent at a time when most other states are cutting spending.

In 2000 the Cato Institute took a look at Governor Gilmore's record and warned:

But Gilmore's budget grade is one of the worst in the nation. The state budget has grown the fifth fastest in the nation: after accounting for increased local reimbursements as a result of the car tax, it rose almost 3 percent faster than population growth and inflation. State spending since 1998 has even grown 2 percent faster than personal income--Virginia has the sixth highest rate of income growth in the nation--during a period when most states have seen state spending shrink as a percentage of residents' wealth. Most of the increased spending was on grades K-12 and state universities, accounting altogether for about 25 percent of his $3 billion in proposed new spending for 20­02. Gilmore recently suggested that he may need to put a stop to the car tax repeal if revenue projections aren't met. Yet it is obvious that if spending hadn't ballooned during his term, plenty of money would be left for the car tax cut. His spending hikes could seriously jeopardize the fiscal legacy of Governor Gilmore.

The problem with Virginia's two defining Republican Governors is that neither seriously took on spending.

And so voters, feeling like they had elected Republicans who were spending in Democrats, had no reason not to support Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
If we don't get a Republican Governor who can cut spending and keep taxes low, our party may well be doomed for another decade in Virginia. Private business growth will languish and our state's economy will grow even more dependent on the federal government. Those aren't the types of voters that will support a small government party at the nationally level. If Creigh Deeds wins we'll see more taxes on our businesses and less private sector growth. That alone is reason enough to support Bob McDonnell. He's our last best hope.

Glad I Didn't Say That . . . (UPDATED!)

I'm no fan of Rick Boucher's vote against the coal industry by supporting the liberal cap and tax scheme. Nor am I a fan of his recent vote to tax Virginia businesses to pay for unemployment in the rest of the country. But here's one attack that I'm glad I didn't use against him.

Most recently, the NRCC targeted Boucher's record of missed votes in his two committees, saying he's missed 61 percent of recorded votes from Sept. 16, 2008, to Sept. 16, 2009. That's fifth overall in Congress and second among Democrats.

"It's unfortunate that Rick Boucher's two signature accomplishments this year consist of selling out Southwest Virginians by spearheading Obama's energy tax and missing more committee votes than nearly every other member of Congress," said NRCC spokesman Andy Sere.

In a Tuesday interview, Boucher said he's missed 90 of 157 recorded votes in 2009 but argued there are good reasons. His mother, Dorothy Buck Boucher, suffered an illness and died in January, and during that time he was by her bedside in Abingdon. In addition, both of his committees meet at roughly the same time, he said. Third, he spent much of this year in backroom negotiations with Waxman on cap and trade.

Andy Sere is going after Boucher because he missed votes while he was along his mother's deathbed?!?!

Glad I'm NOT ANDY SERE.

Update: Actually, I've been provided a transcript of Andy Sere's comments and it seems I got it wrong. Andy was actually praising Boucher for his voting record. Here's the transcript:

It's . . . fortunate that Rick Boucher's . . . signature accomplishments this year consist of . . . more committee votes than nearly every other member of Congress," said NRCC spokesman Andy Sere.

Sorry Andy! That will teach me for not checking the facts first.

The problem with politics

I just added Lynchburg Tea Party organizer Dana Hale to the links on the right and wanted to bring attention to this letter to the editor she wrote to the Lynchburg News & Advance. The paper actually published it!

As a Republican defector turned Libertarian after the McCain nomination during the last presidential election, I’d like to express exactly what I think is wrong with the current state of both parties.

Specifically I’m addressing the Republican Party, and the frustration that many Americans are feeling with the political system in general. Upon reading the Aug. 30 article in The News & Advance about the GOP run against Rep. Tom Perriello in 2010, it only took me until the third paragraph to become frustrated with the methods by which the local district GOP hopes to choose a candidate. The local district chairman, Tucker Watkins, said he hopes to be able to select a candidate to run against Perriello who has a higher name recognition with voters. Specifically, he said he was thinking of three Republican state senators, Frank Ruff, Steve Newman or Robert Hurt.

Here is where I feel like I speak for many people who are disenfranchised with the current political system: Why someone with higher name identification? Can’t folks who don’t have great and powerful name recognition be trusted to hold a position of power and influence in our Capitol building? Personally, if my party wasn’t represented on a ballot, I’d much rather send someone to Washington on the basis of his personal principles, rather than how much time they have already spent in office or how many yard signs they’ve had up. I think the Republican Party needs to reevaluate its methods, and while I’m not sure Perriello will see another term in Congress, I certainly will not vote for someone to replace him based on that person’s name recognition alone. If our state senators are doing a good job where they are, then let them keep up the good work!

Please don’t insult the intelligence of the folks in the Fifth District by assuming we aren’t capable of researching candidates and voting based on principles and platform. Find out who else is running, investigate the candidate on your own and let the local committees know you support these new faces. As Bradley Rees, GOP Fifth District congressional hopeful says, “Stand on principle or stand aside!” This may be a call his party needs to heed.

I entirely agree about the need for the GOP, both nationally and in Virginia, to do some soul searching. Picking someone just because they already have elected office and are well known isn't the right way to find someone who will stick to true conservative principles. Tucker Watkins isn't the only voter in the 5th District of Virginia. The candidate he backs shouldn't automatically be crowned king.

The Unbridled Arrogance of Tom Perriello

Does the arrogance of Tom Perriello know no bounds? On September 17th, 2009, the Lynchburg Tea Party held it's second Tea Party event this year. Based on the pictures turnout was strong as were spirits. I'm glad that this group of patriots didn't allow their spirits to be crushed by the absence of one Thomas Stuart Price Perriello, who was a no show to the event.

"At this stage, I think we're getting accustomed to the arrogance of Congressman Perriello. He didn't even acknowledge the hand-written, hand-delivered invitation I gave him in August to attend our Constitution Day celebration," Hale said. "He missed an outstanding opportunity to be properly educated about the Constit ution, which he swore an oath to uphold and protect. It was also an opportunity for Perriello to hear shared opinions on topics including health care, evidenced by the numerous attendee signs showing opposition to the national health care plan. It's getting clear to us that he is unwilling to meet with ordinary citizens who might tell him something different than typical Beltway babble."

Why didn't Tommy Boy show up? After all, Congress had its last vote on the 17th at 2:16 PM. Lynchburg isn't more than four hours away from DC, giving him plenty of time to get there in time for most of the event.

Why Tom, why?

As Hale says, Tom is showing a clear unwillingness to meet with ordinary citizens. Does he feel like doing twenty-one town halls, more than any other member of Congress, with many of them lasting for more than four hours is enough? No Tom, it's not enough. We the people demand more.

H.R. 3548 Hall of Shame

Here's an update on last night's vote to tax half the country in order to pay for unemployment benefits for the other half. I can understand that some selfish Republicans in states receiving unemployment benefits would be tempted to vote for this massive redistributive regime. They still should be called out. But especially shameful are the Republicans who voted for socialism that doesn't even benefit their state when they have workers who are exhausting their own unemployment benefits. Here's the list I came up with:

Maryland: Roscoe Bartlett- There are over 15,000 unemployed workers in Maryland who will go without unemployment benefits at the end of September. But Roscoe Bartlett voted to make it more difficult for them to find jobs by taxing Maryland businesses. Unlike half the country, Maryland isn't eligible for the extended benefits.

Virginia: Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes, and Frank Wolf- There are over 14,000 unemployed workers in Virginia who will go without unemployment benefits at the end of November. But Rob Wittman, Randy Forbes, and Frank Wolf voted to make it more difficult for them to find jobs by taxing Virginia businesses. Unlike half the country, Virginia isn't eligible for the extended benefits. Ask Randy Forbes why he doesn't care about the 14% unemployment rate in Petersburg.

Montana: Dennis Rehberg- There are over 3,000 unemployed workers in Montana who will go without unemployment benefits at the end of September. But Dennis Rehberg voted to make it more difficult for them to find jobs by taxing Montana businesses. Unlike half the country, Montana isn't eligible for the extended benefits.

Iowa: Thomas Latham- There are over 19,000 unemployed workers in Iowa who will go without unemployment benefits at the end of September. But Thomas Latham voted to make it more difficult for them to find jobs by taxing Iowa businesses. Unlike half the country, Iowa isn't eligible for the extended benefits.

Utterly shameful. These guys need to be taken out in 2010.

Someone Needs to Whip the GOP Into Shape!

I wish this were an April Fool's joke. Maybe the new April 1st is September 22nd, the first day of fall. Because the House of Representatives just had a vote in which Northern Virginia liberals Gerry Connolly and Jim Moran stood up for conservative principles and fairness while Randy Forbes and Rob Wittman voted for a tax on businesses with no benefit at all to Virginia.

Let me back up and give a brief civics 101 lesson.

One method for the House of Representatives to speed things along and limit debate is to suspend the rules and pass a piece of legislation without amendment. The Democrat leadership in the House likes this because it saves time to do other things, like attacking opponents of the President. There's no opportunity for amendment at all or a motion to recommit, which is often the only way Republicans can propose good amendments to bad legislation. The effort to limit funding of ACORN was done through a motion to recommit.

Pelosi obviously doesn't want to limit funding to ACORN or other liberal groups so she wants to suspend the rules as much as possible. Luckily, under House rules you have to have 2/3rds of the chamber voting to suspend the rules. This usually limits the use of this tactic to meaningless resolutions praising college team's and historical figures. Occasionally something substantive will pass under suspension of the rules by the 2/3rds requirement means it needs some Republican support--usually RINO support.

Tonight, the Democrats tried to pass under suspension a bill to extend unemployment benefits for some states--but not all. Virginia, for example, was not on the list because it's not, according to Pelosi and Rangel, a "high unemployment state." Similar to the Democrat effort in the Virginia House of Delegates to extend unemployment benefits by increasing taxes on businesses, this proposal would have levied a tax of $56 per employee per year on businesses. Hardly the type of noncontroversial stuff a suspension of the rules should be used for.

The result?

It passed 331 to 83. Over 100 Republicans, the majority of the caucus, voted for it.

GOP Fail.

Now I'm sure some of these Republicans represent districts going through difficult economic times. But Petersburg, represented by Randy Forbes, has a 14.3% unemployment rate. I'm sure the struggling families in Petersburg would like some help too. But no, Randy Forbes just voted for a bill that taxes ALL businesses in order to send unemployment benefits to mismanaged states like California, New York, and Michigan. He just voted to make it more difficult for people to find jobs in Petersburg in order to pay off the blue Obama states.

I'm angry at Forbes and Wittman, but I'm angrier at Republican Whip Eric Cantor. Sure, Cantor voted against this monstrosity. But as the Republican Whip it is his job, his responsibility, to ensure that the members are well informed and ready to hold the conservative line against the Democrat majority. Tonight, too many Republicans voted as liberals, not as conservatives.

While suspensions are usually noncontroversial, not all are. Five times so far this Congress a suspension of the rules has failed. One seems to be a revenge vote by Democrats against a piece of noncontrovertial legislation offered by a Republican because Republicans defeated a controversial bill establishing a "National Heritage Area" in Arizona that would limit property rights and inhibit the operations of border security along the Mexican border that the Democrats tried to sneak through under suspension. Another vote would have opened the door to changes to how congressional staffers would be paid, a questionable change in these difficult economic times. Finally, votes on an intrusive nanny state regulatory regime on our farms and delaying the federal mandate so that consumers would be even more confused about when the DTV switch was turned on.

So Republicans have stood up to Democrat power grabbing in the past. Why didn't they tonight? Ask their Whip, Eric Cantor.

You know you’ve made it when …

You show up in The Hill!

Being a regional flack at one of the major parties’ House campaign committees isn’t always the most glamorous job, but it does get your name in the paper.

And, apparently, in the titles of blogs.

You might have heard of Not Larry Sabato, the well-named Virginia blog that aims to be what the ubiquitous University of Virginia political pundit isn’t.

Well, now National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) southeast regional press secretary Andy Sere has his own namesake Virginia politics blog, creatively titled Not Andy Sere (notandysere.blogspot.com).

It’s actually a remarkable accomplishment for Sere, who has been taking shots at Reps. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Glenn Nye (D-Va.) from his First Street SE perch for only about three months.

The blog launched in mid-August and has a Twitter feed and a conservative bent.

—A.B.

Go ME!

More On New York Liberal Rob Hurt

Tim Boyer continues his series of blog posts profiling the surprisingly liberal voting record of State Senator Robert Hurt. With this sort of background I hope 5th District Republicans think long and hard before handing him the nomination. We already have two candidates who have worked hard to reach out to the conservative grassroots, Bradley Rees and Laurence Verga. And while I don't think Verga could find his way to Southside Virginia he at least was able to find his way to D.C. for the 9-12 protests. Good job!

Here's the latest on Hurt:

A couple of years ago the Republican-controlled VA House of Delegates passed a bill (HB3202) that established Regional Transportation Authorities for the purpose of collecting taxes ostensibly for fixing the roads in Northern Virginia (NoVa).

These UNELECTED bureaucrats were granted the power by the General Assembly to raise taxes without oversight by the GA.
Those of you who revere the Constitution will recognize this as taxation without representation.
Unelected bodies with the power to levy taxes on you and me!

This accomplished a twofold purpose;
First, it allowed the Republican majority to raise taxes for the purpose of fixing roads without having to actually vote for a tax increase, and then take the credit for fixing the roads "without raising taxes".
Secondarily, it protected the elected officials from the wrath of angry voters whose taxes would be raised in order to do so.

Now raising taxes is ALWAYS a problem for me.
But a far greater problem for me is taxation without representation, which HB 3202 undeniably did.
When this anti-American legislation was challenged by Bob Marshall and Pat McSweeney, even the Virginia Supreme Court agreed in a 7-0 decision that it WAS taxation without representation, and they overturned it.
This all happened under Republican control of the VA House and Robert Hurt voted for this bill.

Between this vote and his vote for the largest tax increase in Virginia's history, a disturbing pattern is becoming clear in his record.

Folks, we fought a war partially over taxation without representation 250 years ago, and now here is the "conservative" republican party hatching a plot to do exactly that, and then dare to tell us that they are for lower taxes??

Once again, if our party cannot do better than this, how can we possibly present any kind of a contrast to Perriello?

I also hope the 5th District Committee will have the courage to stand up for the people they represent and resist the powers that be to vote for a convention, so Democrats will find it far more difficult to infect our nomination with their liberal poison in a primary.

The Committee should be offended if Washington surrogates attempt to usurp their authority in the selection for the method of nomination, if indeed that becomes a reality as it generally does in this type of situation.

It is about time We the People take back the responsibility for recruiting our own leaders rather than ceding control of our political future to bureaucrats in Washington.

Combined with his voting record, and reported support from some bureaucrats in the Washington establishment Senator Hurt looks less and less like the right man to challenge Perriello.

Amen Tom! (Boyer, not Perriello, of course).

Why We Blog

I wanted to introduce a new political blog that I've added to the links: Virginia's 5th District blog by the Jefferson Area Tea Party's Bill Hay. The Jefferson Area Tea Party is perhaps the last best hope of organizing conservatives in the Charlottesville area and I'm happy to see Hay continue his online activism. Blogging is an important part of engaging the people in the political process. It's why I'm thankful that there are candidates out there like Bradley Rees who tweet and answer questions posed to them by the people. And it's also why I'm happy to see bloggers like Hay pick up the slack when our traditional media fails to cover the news.

Bob's Got To Go!!

Don't worry fellow Republicans, I'm not about to come out and endorse Creigh Deeds. I'm not talking about Bob McDonnell. I'm talking about South Carolina Representative and so-called Republican Bob Inglis.

Let's look at Bob's recent record. During an August town hall told his constituents who are fearful of Obama's socialism to "Turn Glenn Beck Off." I guess he doesn't want his constituents to know about Obama's death panels. He said of his town hall, "What you saw tonight was people who had been convinced of this negativism, and are detaching from the communities and institutions that hold us together."

Detaching?! Bob needs to turn off Keith Olbermann and turn on Fox News because he's the one detaching from reality!

Just this week, Bob Inglis was one of only seven Republicans to vote against his fellow South Carolina Republican Joe Wilson for standing up to Obama's lies about giving health care to illegal immigrants. One of seven.

With such a liberal record it's no wonder that Bob's being challenged from within the Republican Party. South Carolina State Senator David Thomas is one such challenger and said he was “disappointed” in Inglis for voting against President Bush's troop surge that has ultimately created victory in Iraq. Inglis also voted for the bailout last year!

According to Politico, it gets worse:

His role on the House Judiciary Committee is also proving troublesome. In 2006, he was the deciding vote in preventing from reaching the House floor legislation designed to ensure constitutional protection of the phrase “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance.

Anti-Glenn Beck. Anti-Victory in Iraq. Pro-Bailout. Pro-Health Care for Illegal Immigrants. And then Anti-Under God?!

Can it get any worse?

Yes it can!

Today news broke that the Obama administration has concluded that legislation to stop "global climate change" would increase taxes up to $200 billion a year! This internal analysis was conducted earlier in the legislative process and looked at both the so-called "cap and trade" approach and a carbon tax approach. Both were estimated to cost about 1% of GDP! While most of the attention has been given to the cap and tax bill that passed the House, conservatives should be upset by the fact that Bob Inglis supports a carbon tax! According to the Heritage Foundation this too would be an "economy killer."

How is this guy still in the Republican Party? He's pushing a proposal to increase taxes on American families by $1,761 per year! According to the report, "Economic costs will likely be on the order of 1 percent of GDP, making them equal in scale to all existing environmental regulation." More regulation than all existing environmental regulation combine?!

Bob's got to go! Good luck David Thomas!

Faulk Out, Boyd In

The number of challengers to Democrat Tom Perriello has increased to four. But we've lost the voice of Larry Sabato's Center for Politics, Cordel Faulk, as a possible candidate. Welcome Albemarle Supervisor Ken Boyd!

I have a lot of thoughts on how this race is shaping up. So far there are three candidates from the northern end of the district around Charlottesville. Finding a candidate who can appeal to both conservatives and to Charlottesville is the main test of the Republican nomination fight. With the NRA's endorsement I think Bob McDonnell is well on his way to victory and a favorable 2010 redistricting is in sights for the 5th District. With that in mind Republicans in the 5th need to focus more on a conservative candidate than a Charlottesville candidate. But both would be great!

More of my thoughts will be posted later. For now, more on Boyd's announcement:

After the recent speech by President Obama on health care, many people called me to make sure I would be in the race to take the 5th Congressional seat back from Democrat Congressman Perriello. Several of you asked me for background information to give to other Republicans who have also asked about the race.

Campaign will kick off November 5 and 6

I will be filing my campaign documents and filing fee in the days ahead. Please reply to this email or call 434.326.3522 to let me know you will support my campaign for Congress and/or if you would like to meet with me in Charlottesville (9:30 a.m.), Altavista (12:30 p.m.) or Martinsville (4 p.m.) on Saturday (September 19). But make no mistake, in all of these meetings, I will be encouraging my supporters to work to help the 2009 candidates during the last six weeks of their campaigns. We can do this while helping to build the grassroots support we need in the 5th district to stop the out-of-control deficits that will follow if Congressman Perriello joins Nancy Pelosi and President Obama in backing universal health care and other liberal spending programs. I am not planning to kick off my campaign with bigger, more public events until November 5 and 6 because we must all stay focused on this year's elections. They are too important to the future of Virginia. I believe it is crucial that we all stay focused on maintaining our majority in the House of Delegates. I will be working hard to elect Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli, who, like me, has had to win elections in a heavily Democratic area.

Why I will run

When asked why I am the best Republican to beat Congressman Perriello, I need to borrow a quip from President Reagan and promise not to "exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience." Seriously though, the unbelievable deficits being run up in Washington are the result of a combination of a liberal ideology and complete inexperience of those in power at managing a budget. We can blame the Democrats for MOST of this, but how many "conservative" Republicans have disappointed us with out-of-control spending? Our next Congressman must both have a conservative philosophy AS WELL AS have experience managing money and knowing how to go into complicated budgets built by liberal bureaucrats and get rid of the massive wasteful spending that does little or no good.

Stopping overspending for 40 years

I have the experience needed to step in and turn off the free-flowing spending. I have the strongest background for stepping in the way of overspending in DC:

* My college work in Averett University (BBA & MBA) taught me how to control budgets through fiscal responsibility.
* For five years I lived in Martinsville, where my wife Brenda's family would never let me stray far from the fiscal conservative philosophy of Southside Virginia. There were many times we had to say no to our children, Casey, Patrick, Kelley and Cory, because the budget just didn't allow something they wanted.
* I have kept these values during 23 years in the banking business, moving to Albemarle County in 1981, and founding a successful small business, Boyd Financial Services in 1991.
* My message of fiscal responsibility was a tough one in an increasingly Democratic Albemarle, but I stuck to my principles, and was able to win two, hard-fought, close elections by sticking to my principles and governing true to my campaign - by reigning in spending.

We need to bring Main Street ideas and principles to Washington, and you don't get any more Main Street than serving 10 years at the grass roots level of elected local government. Four years on the school board and six as an Albemarle County Supervisor (two as chair) has kept me in touch with the people of the 5th District. We need to stop the pattern of people who go to Washington with little life experiences and become "inside the beltway" politicians out of touch with their constituents. My 40 years of controlling budgets, as well as my ability to stick to these principles in a Democratic leaning county, have prepared me well for both the coming campaign and hard battle that must be fought to protect your tax money and stop plunging our children into debt. As George Allen used to say, "If you work for a living and pay taxes, then you should be on our side."

Conservative on Social and Foreign Affairs

On the Board of Supervisors, we dealt almost exclusively with fiscal issues, so social issues took a back seat. However, for those who say, "I am fiscally conservative but socially moderate," I say that fiscal conservatives cannot afford to pay for socially liberal policies. Recently I fought the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors decision to give $25,000 to a radical population control group called ASAP (http://www.stopgrowthasap.org/) for a study that would determine how many people should be allowed to live in the county. If you can believe it, I recently had to lobby heavily in order to eventually get a unanimous decision from my liberal majority board to allow a small Baptist church to start a Christian school. In moving up to Congress, make no mistake, I will would bring strong conservative values to social and foreign affairs issues as well. I am pro-life, and believe we must defend traditional marriage. I am a gun-owner, hunt, and will protect the 2nd amendment. Now that it has been seven years since the terrorists attacks on our soil, too many politicians are again letting their guard down. We need a strong military - now more than ever - and we simply cannot allow terrorists into our homeland whether they try to take a plane or come over our border.

How I will win

In the coming weeks, the Republican Chairman from each 5th district county and city will gather to decide whether to select the nominee through a primary or convention. Most Chairs initially indicated that they preferred a convention. If a convention is selected, we will fight for the vote of you and potential delegates in every county - not only to win the nomination, but to build a strong grassroots organization to beat the money the Democrats will pour into this district. To join our team, you can come to an organizational meeting on Saturday, September 19 (email for details), your county's meeting in February and then the 5th district convention in May. However, there is always outside pressure on local Republican Chairmen to pick a primary. If that happens, we still need to build the same grassroots organization in every county, but I will spend more money on TV and other advertising. With the deep financial contacts I have developed through 40 years of work in the finance arena, I will raise whatever it takes to win this nomination as well as the general election. I easily put together $61,000 to cover what I needed in a Supervisor's race, and will raise hundreds of thousands of dollars early on to win the primary, if that method is chosen.

Your decision on who to support

When considering which Republican to back for this seat, ask which candidate gives you the best chance to win a true victory for conservatives on November 2, 2010. The Democrats will not let this district go without a nasty fight on their part. They will pour millions of dollars into Congressman Perriello's re-election campaign from liberal interests and national Democratic money. To win this election, I believe we need four things:

1. A challenger who can speak with authority on fiscal and budget matters, and who has the credibility to ensure the voters of the 5th district that he has proven he can stop the big spenders - It is hard to stop the bureaucrats and big spending liberals from finding ways to sneak the money out the back door. On the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors, I have had to look them in the eye and say NO with the numbers to back me up, and I will do the same in Congress.

2. A challenger who knows and shares the conservative values of Southside Virginia - which I do from my years in undergraduate and graduate school, living in Martinsville, and from relatives and in-laws in Martinsville as well as Henry and Franklin counties, who would not even let me think about straying from our shared values if I wanted too!

3. A challenger who can cut Congressman Perriello's margins in Charlottesville and the surrounding areas - I will be the only candidate in this race with a built-in base of support in Albemarle County which I have won over through 28 years of work in the community and two hard-fought election wins.

4. A challenger who has proven he can raise money - I raised $61,000 for a small Albemarle County Board of Supervisors race, and because my professional life consists of calling and getting money from business leaders, I will raise the money it takes to win this race.

I look forward to kicking off my campaign by heading out Route 58 to Brunswick County, and spending a lot of time going up and down Route 15 and visiting every corner of this district as soon as the 2009 campaigns are over.

In the meantime, I appreciate any feedback you care to offer and look forward to seeing you on the campaign trail. If you do want to join us for one of our organizational meetings on September 19, or if you know of an event you would like me to attend, please don't hesitate to call John Pudner at 434.326.3522 and he will give you details.

Ken Boyd
Republican, Albemarle County Board of Supervisors

Pelosi's Silving Lining: 2010 Isn't 1994 (Part II)

Part I is here.

The silver lining for Nancy Pelosi and her Democrats going into 2010 is that they don't have as many vulnerable open seats to defend. Isaac Woods recently picked up this meme at the History News Network. As I said in Part I, the Democrats have one open seat that's almost certainly a goner (Louisiana 3rd) and two other swing districts they'll have to defend (New Hampshire 2nd and Pennsylvania 7th). With a few vulnerable seats on the Republican side (Illinois 10th and Pennsylvania 6th) the opens seats look like a wash.

Another silver lining, related to 1994, is that Democrat incumbents in safe Democrat districts are, no surprise, rather safe. You need to be a corrupt Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee to be knocked out even in a wave year. So far 2010 is like 1914 in that respect.

The vulnerable Democrat incumbents don't come from safe Democratic districts but swing ones. I don't think there's a Democrat incumbent out there in a district where Obama was over 55% that really has to worry about reelection--unless they mess it up on their own.

The concern for the Democrats are the 49 Democrat incumbents sitting in districts won by John McCain and the additional Democrat incumbents in swing districts narrowly won by Barack Obama. This includes the trio of "Oboomers" (Glenn Nye, Larry Kissell, Steve Driehaus), Democrats that won in traditionally Republican seats by riding Barack Obama's coattails and strong African-American turnout. I would argue these guys are even more vulnerable than their McCain district colleagues because they failed to fool McCain voters last time around. At least we know the Democrats in McCain districts know enough about how to play the game to fool some of the people some of the time.

(Given Nye's strong vulnerability, Eric Cantor's use of kid gloves against him is all the more unusual).

But 2010 is going to be a year when a lot of voters wise up. They'll look at what is going on in Washington. They won't like it. And that good "conservative" Democrat they've been voting for? Turns out he's been backing Nancy Pelosi all along.

All told, I think Nancy Pelosi is looking at loosing 30 to 35 seats from her Democrat majority. That will easily be enough to remove her from her position as Speaker and clear the way for Steny Hoyer of Maryland to become Speaker of the House. Assuming there are no surprises . . .

A 9-11 Lesson: Public Servants, Not Perfect Servants

Today I want to highlight an important lesson from 9-11: ordinary citizens are capable of extraordinary acts of heroism and bravery.

I want to connect this to a line from the Reverend Jesse Jackson, the hero of liberal activists. When faced with criticism over his statements, actions, and other antics, the good Reverend would note that he was a public servant, not a perfect servant.

That's fair.

To quote President Obama on Congressman Wilson, "We all make mistakes."

And so that brings me to discuss Republican 5th District Candidate Bradley Rees and some recent mistakes he has made.

That's all they are mistakes. Rees is running for Congress not because he thinks he's better than us (we have plenty in Congress like that already) but because he's one of us. Like us, he makes mistakes. And that should be the end of the story.

But here's what I want to say about Rees. He's been an open, transparent, and accessible candidate for public office.

Here are a few recent tweets in response to questions I've asked over the last week:

@NotAndySere After looking into the vote in question [Warner's tax increase], I have to say, unequivocally, I'd have voted "NO!" Yes, in caps. :D

And on the importance of online conservative activism:

@NotAndySere It's absolutely necessary. R's got creamed on the nets in the last 3 election cycles. We must gain a foothold, ASAP.

@NotAndySere Also, as a long-time grassroots activist, I understand how coalitions are built. Ignoring resources=no structural integrity.

Thanks to Rees for responding to the questions so far. I'm sure I'll have more. And keep up the good work.

Where's Faulk? (Part II)

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with a new analysis of 2010. I see Isaac T. Wood listed but no Cordell Faulk.

Here's the staff listing for the Center for Politics.

Where's Faulk?

More to come . . .

Cordell Faulk About to Announce?

In the same way that Andy Sere has been noticeably absent from media attacks against Glenn Nye, I have noticed that Cordell Faulk has disappeared from the media recently. The director of communications for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia should have a lot to say during a heated Virginia election year. But we've only heard from him once in the last month. The Center for Politics is pushing out a new face, Isaac Wood, who has started to pop up in articles more and more and more and more.

Looks like the Center for Politics is phasing Faulk out as he prepares for an announcement. Tom Perriello better watch out!

Eric Cantor Courting Glenn Nye to Switch Parties

Exhibit A: The Hill profiles 23 Democrats they say are a "no" on healthcare reform.

Glenn Nye isn't listed.

Exhibit B: Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia puts out a list of 44 Democrats the Republican Party views as "no" on healthcare reform based on public comments during the August recess.

Glenn Nye isn't listed.

Exhibit C: During the August Recess, Glenn Nye holds what ends up being his first, last and only public forum on health care with Republican Congressman Rob Wittman.

They both agree, "the most recent legislation in the US House of Representatives is not the answer for Americans, particularly the portion that creates a public government insurance option."

During the August recess, Glenn Nye showed an impressive ability to cut and run whenever he thought constituents might show up and ask him questions about his legislative record.

Everyone knows Glenn Nye is a no on healthcare reform.

The 2nd district voted narrow for Obama in 2008 after consistently favoring Bush in the past. He is a vulnerable Democrat going into 2010. But the NRCC's Andy Sere (a good friend!) has been absent in news stories about Glenn Nye despite the ample ammo Nye has provided with his antics. But Sere has been quick to jump on other Democrats like Tom Perriello, Bobby Bright, and Larry Kissell.

What gives?

Why are Andy Sere and Eric Cantor going out of their way to reduce the heat Glenn Nye is feeling from conservatives?

Especially at a time when progressives are increasing their heat on Glenn Nye?

Andy Sere and Eric Cantor are undermining the efforts of state and local Republicans, and grassroots conservatives, to defeat Glenn Nye. Here in Virginia, we have united behind Scott Rigell. But Sere, Cantor and the National Republicans are playing softball. More inside the Beltway crap.

Why?

Eric Cantor seems to be courting Glenn Nye to switch parties. Both know that if Nye switched now he would face an angry conservative base over his vote for Obama's pork-filled "stimulus" and other liberal policies. State and local Republicans would want a true conservative in office and Nye would be defeated in a GOP primary. But if Cantor is able to manipulate Sere and the media into playing soft with Glenn Nye his reelection becomes a lot easier. Which clears the way for Nye to switch parties AFTER the election in 2010.

Why else would Republican Congressman Rob Wittman go out of his way to host an event with Glenn Nye and help the vulnerable young Democrat? Because Eric Cantor told him to!

What's in this for Cantor?

That will be revealed in the future . . .

But how can Nye expect Democrats to work for his reelection in 2010 if they can't trust him to stay a Democrat after the victory party?

Pelosi's Silver Lining: 2010 Isn't 1994 (Part I)

Here's a silver lining for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as she fends off challenges to his power from unhappy moderate Democrats. While her party is sure to face defeats in the 2010 midterm election and watch a surge of Republican victories coast to coast, it's wrong to compare the election to 1994. Even a conservative like myself will vouch for that.

Why?

Because I don't think the Democrats will loose as many seats as 1994. But I do think it's possible more incumbents than 1994 will be defeated, which will make the defeats hurt so much more. That's right, I think as many as 34 incumbents could be defeated.

First, the good news. Of the lost seats in 1994, including two special elections, twenty-four were open seats. Democrats held onto all open seats in districts where Clinton won over 50% of the vote. I'm willing to concede that Democrats will probably keep open seats where Obama won over 50% of the vote, especially traditionally Democratic seats where Gore and Kerr also won. And I'll concede they only have a few open seats to defend right now. In Louisiana, Charlie Melancon's seat seems like a certain pick up. Pennsylvania's Joe Sestak and New Hampshire's Paul Hodes will be more difficult seats for them to defend and I'm optimistic about the Pennsylvania 7th. And I'll concede some difficulty in defending Mark Kirk's seat in the Illinois 10th. But other than the open seat in Delaware, I don't see much happening in this category of races. For now.

The good news for Nancy Pelosi: open seats could be a wash. Without those twenty-four pickups from open seats the Republicans will have a hard time winning as many seats as they did in 1994.

The bad news for Nancy Pelosi: But the forty or so pickups needed to win back the House of Representatives may actually be possible. The rules from 1994 don't apply in 2010.

I think it's helpful to look back and understand why Republicans were so successful in 1994. The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman provides some insight and offers up a nice chart tracking the win rates for Democrats by district and voting record. Tom Schaller at FiveThirtyEight has it for public consumption but I think Cook's opened up their page as well.

And, as 1994 demonstrated, voting behavior in the House matters back home. As the chart below shows, 33 of the 34 Democrats who lost in 1994 voted for either the tax-increasing Clinton budget package or the Brady handgun bill in 1993, and 19 voted for both. Of the 18 House Democrats who voted for neither of the controversial measures, only one ultimately lost (and that member, Jay Inslee of Washington, hurt his standing later by voting for final passage of the Clinton crime bill, including the Assault Weapons Ban, in August 1994).

Interestingly, David Wasserman uses the Brady handgun bill as his vote for gun control while Real Clear Politic's Sean Trende uses the assault weapons ban. But both looked at how Democratic incumbents with different voting records on taxes and gun control survived 1994. Another difference is that Trende looks at PVI, not Clinton's 1992 vote, so he lists as pro-Democratic some districts were Clinton was under 50%. Given the role of maverick Ross Perot in the politics of the 1990s I prefer Wasserman's use of Clinton's 1992 performance. It gives us an idea of where Perot's voters could swing to the Republican in order to turn the district Republican, even if it had a Democratic tilt in other elections.

Back in 1994, a Democratic Congressman in district where Clinton won over 50% had it pretty much made. Democrats not only defended almost all Democratic incumbents in these Clinton districts but defended all of the open seats in Clinton territory. That Democratic incumbent in Democratic territory that managed to blow it? Corrupt Democratic Congressman Dan Rostenkowski who was Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. Democrats retook his seat in 1996 with Rod Blagojevich. Good to see that the Democrats learned their lesson and nominated a more ethical member.

Note that Wasserman has only one Clinton district Democrat defeated, Rostenkowski. Trende has eight incumbents in Democratic PVI districts defeated. In Wasserman's study only 18 House Democrats voted against both Clinton's tax increases and the Brady handgun bill and only one lost, Jay Inslee of Washington. He shot himself in the foot by voting for the Assault Weapons Ban in a Bush district. Trende's other seven Democrats may have been in Democratic PVI districts, but they knew that Clinton was still under 50% in the district in 1992. And none were smart enough to vote more conservatively because of it.

Unlike 1994, even members in Obama districts should be afraid. And I'm not just talking about corrupt Chairmen of the House Ways and Means Committee. The current Congress has a bumper crop of "Oboomers" where Barack Obama won a surprise victory in 2008 and helped bring some less than viable Democrats across the finish line. One Democratic incumbent in a Obama-district helped by strong African-American turnout is blog favorite Glenn Nye. But other Democrats need to watch their back as well, such as Ohio's Steve Driehaus and North Carolina's Larry Kissell.

Setting aside concerns about corrupt incumbents and "Oboomer" districts going back to their natural Republican tilt, should Nancy Pelosi kick up her high heels and relax about 2010?

Hell no.

But that will wait for Part II.

State Senator Hurt Not Conservative?

I've covered before the importance of Republicans going after Virginia's three ducklings in 2010 before they settle down and take control of their swing district for elections to come. While I am a big fan of both Scott Rigell and Keith Fimian I am concerned that the 5th District Republicans are having a hard time finding a conservative to challenge Tom Perriello.

There are three announced challengers in the 5th District. While a lot of people may have initially brushed off working class candidate Bradley Rees, his determination has started to pay off and he is attracting national attention. The two other candidates, Feda Kidd Morton and Laurence Verga, both seem to be running as conservatives but have shown less of a work ethic as Rees. To be fair I'm going to give them more time to figure out where Southside Virginia is. I don't think Californian Laurence Verga has ever been to Southside Virginia. Maybe he thinks rural America is when he drives out from downtown Charlottesville to Farmington Country Club.

Adding to my concerns, Republican Unit Vice-Chairman Tim Boyer has started to check under the hood to see if State Senator Robert Hurt is a conservative or a lemon.

Today, we will focus on his vote for the largest tax increase in Virginia's history.

Senator Hurt voted for the so-called "Commonwealth of Opportunity" budget and tax reform act of 2004-2005.

This assault on Virginia taxpayers came courtesy of then-Governor Warner and Republican Preston Bryant, who convinced seventeen other Republicans to join him in crossing the aisle to provide the necessary Republican votes to get this bill passed in a House then controlled by Republicans. (Bryant was paid off with a Cabinet position in the new Kaine Administration)

Sadly, not only did Hurt vote for this bill, providing the needed Republican votes to pass it, but we found out only a short time later that Virginia had at the time a $1 billion (that's right, $1 BILLION !!) budget surplus at the same time we were stealing more money from Virginia's citizens, under the pretext of a budget shortfall.

The same Republican party that assaulted Warner, and rightfully so, as a tax and spender, provided desperately needed Republican votes for the largest tax increase in Virginia's history.

The bill could not pass with Democrat votes alone, so Republicans did it for them; Senator Hurt was one of those eighteen Republicans.

How can Senator Hurt possibly call out Perriello for his Cap and Trade tax increase vote, among others, with any credibility?

Perriello will only have to respond, ' yeah, here's Mr. Largest Tax Increase in Virginia's History calling me a tax and spender!!'

That Robert Hurt voted for Virginia's largest tax increase in history is a serious flaw. We need a strong conservative who can go after Perriello for his votes to raise taxes on working Americans during these difficult economic times. So far we have three conservative candidates that would do just that. We don't need a liberal candidate to jump into the Republican primary. Maybe Hurt should consider challenging Perriello in the Democratic primary?

Virginia's Huey, Dewey, and Louie

Virginia's three little Democrat ducklings, Glenn, Tom, and Gerry, are running scared. They've formed a new "Virginia Freshmen Victory Fund" to help raise money for their 2010 un-election campaigns.

Run for the hills!

All three of these guys, even Gerry, have good reasons to be afraid.

Gerry ran behind Barack Obama in a big year for Democratic performance in Northern Virginia. Democrats have had more modest margins in Northern Virginia and the 11th District in other elections. Bob McDonnell's performance this fall will be an earlier indicator of just how weak Democratic enthusiasm is in the 11th. And we know for sure that Gerry generates little Democratic enthusiasm on his own.

We've talked about Pretty Boy Glenn before. He's already running scared and this is just another sign. I look forward to watching Governor Bob McDonnell stump for Scott Rigell alongside Delegates Chris Stolle and Ronald Villanueva. Now that will be an event!

Laurence Verga has jumped into the race against Tommy Boy but I'm holding out judgment on him right now. His failure to know the difference between the 6th and 5th Districts isn't a good start. The problem is that the Republcians of the 5th District demonstrated a failure of leadership in letting Tommy win in the first place. Some new blood, be it Verga or Rees, is badly needed. But it's got to be the right sort of new blood.

Bob McDonnell & Pro-Family Voters

In 1991, following a conservative avalanche in Virginia Beach, then Christian Coalition Executive Director Ralph Reed said of newly elected Delegate Bob McDonnell, "Bob McDonnell is going to Richmond because of Christian and pro-family voters. Period. End of story."

Here is my 2009 reaction to the liberal media and the bloggers gleefully attacking Bob McDonnell for his 1989 thesis on promoting healthy marriages and stable families, "Bob McDonnell is going to Richmond because of Christian and pro-family voters. Period. End of story."

Liberals aren't going to win this election. Christian and pro-family voters are going to win and they are going to win with McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli.

Look back to 1991:

Robertson Organization Gets Credit for Beach Election Outcome
11 November 1991
The Associated Press

Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition, buoyed by a show of political muscle in Virginia's General Assembly elections last week, will welcome Vice President Dan Quayle at its "Road to Victory" conference on Friday.

The conference "will change the direction of American politics," Robertson said in a letter to supporters last month. "We will discuss strategy for turning out over 20 million pro-family voters in 1992."

The coalition, employing grassroots tactics learned in Robertson's unsuccessful presidential bid in 1988, is being given some of the credit for the victories of Republican candidates in Virginia Beach races Nov. 5.

Republicans won seven of nine races in the city, ousting two incumbents and taking two open seats. Although the coalition doesn't endorse candidates or parties, it pushes a "pro-family" agenda that many GOP candidates follow, said Ralph E. Reed Jr., executive director of the organization.

...

According to Reed, the coalition's work was responsible for the victory of Republican Robert F. McDonnell, a Virginia Beach prosecutor and graduate of Robertson's Regent University, over 20-year incumbent Democrat Glenn B. McClanan in the 84th House of Delegates district.

...

Reed agreed that the coalition tilted the playing field. "I want to be invisible," he said. "I do guerrilla warfare. I paint my face and travel at night. You don't know it's over until you're in a body bag. You don't know until election night.

The Democrats are going to need a lot of body bags for November 3rd. They are going to be completely surprised by the mass of Christian and pro-family voters that will turn out on Election Day in defense of Bob McDonnell.

Bob McDonnell, his past, and his current campaign are like a Who's Who of the Christian and pro-family movement in politics. His campaign manager, Philip Cox, was involved in the Faith and Family Alliance, a key political advocacy group linked to Ralph Reed. Faith and Family Alliance also involved Pat Mullins, the new Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. These guys get grassroots politics in a way rivaled only by other long time politicos like Tucker Watkins. Robin Vanderwall, who succeeded Cox as the alliance's executive director, also worked for Bob McDonnell in 1999. He has had some unfortunate legal problems and is in jail serving a seven-year prison sentence for soliciting sex from a minor on the Internet. A few bad apples among McDonnell's associates don't bother me much. Even Jesus had Judas.

Once elected, Bob McDonnell will be facing almost 4,000 appointments to fill. Think of the influence that his pro-family agenda will have through College Boards of Visitors and state agencies. Think of good conservative leadership at our public institutions like the College of William and Mary preventing radical liberals from seizing power ever again. This is an agenda that binds together all Republicans. Even moderate Northern Virginia Republican Tim Hugo said that William and Mary's liberal actions made it a joke. Under McDonnell, we won't have radical liberals in power anywhere in the Commonwealth. College Boards of Visitors will look a lot like Regent and Liberty. Amen.

Creigh's Cap

Public Policy Polling has the race for Governor in Virginia tightening to 49% for Virginia's next Jobs Governor, Bob McDonnell, to 42% for the Senator from Bath from 51-37 a month ago. I hope my Democratic friends don't work themselves too hard over this improvement that has moved Creigh behind Mary Sue Terry to neck and neck with Don Beyer. Creigh Deeds is facing a cap and it's not just cap and tax.

The exit polls of Virginia during the 2008 election suggest that 13% of the voters said it was their first time voting ever. They favored Barack Obama over John McCain 63% to 35%. These new Obamacons seem uninterested in coming out to vote for Creigh. The latest poll shows a 2009 electoral that favored John McCain over Barack Obama by only 49 to 45. That's far different than last year's six point spread in favor of Obama.

And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor.

So for you English majors out there the first poll had Creigh down 14 points with an electorate that favored McCain over Obama by 11 points. A month later the electorate favored McCain over Obama by 4 points, a change of 7 points. And Creigh? He's now down only 7 points. The change is almost entirely caused by Democrats finally waking up and paying attention to the election. What this means for Creigh is he only has a prayer if the voters this fall actually favored Obama back in 2008. Any sign of Obama fatigue will doom his chances. I've yet to see Creigh generating the same level of energy and activism among college students and African-Americans that Obama did. Creigh's cap is the percentage of the electoral that voted for Obama. He can't do better than that and he'll probably do worse.