Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Creigh's Cap

Public Policy Polling has the race for Governor in Virginia tightening to 49% for Virginia's next Jobs Governor, Bob McDonnell, to 42% for the Senator from Bath from 51-37 a month ago. I hope my Democratic friends don't work themselves too hard over this improvement that has moved Creigh behind Mary Sue Terry to neck and neck with Don Beyer. Creigh Deeds is facing a cap and it's not just cap and tax.

The exit polls of Virginia during the 2008 election suggest that 13% of the voters said it was their first time voting ever. They favored Barack Obama over John McCain 63% to 35%. These new Obamacons seem uninterested in coming out to vote for Creigh. The latest poll shows a 2009 electoral that favored John McCain over Barack Obama by only 49 to 45. That's far different than last year's six point spread in favor of Obama.

And where a month ago Democratic interest in the election was so low that those planning to vote in November had supported John McCain by a 52-41 margin last year even though Obama won the state by six points, we now find that spread at only 49-45 in McCain's favor.

So for you English majors out there the first poll had Creigh down 14 points with an electorate that favored McCain over Obama by 11 points. A month later the electorate favored McCain over Obama by 4 points, a change of 7 points. And Creigh? He's now down only 7 points. The change is almost entirely caused by Democrats finally waking up and paying attention to the election. What this means for Creigh is he only has a prayer if the voters this fall actually favored Obama back in 2008. Any sign of Obama fatigue will doom his chances. I've yet to see Creigh generating the same level of energy and activism among college students and African-Americans that Obama did. Creigh's cap is the percentage of the electoral that voted for Obama. He can't do better than that and he'll probably do worse.

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